Arlene held at 60kts
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James
- Category 5
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Arlene held at 60kts
Well, Arlene has been kept at 60kts for this advisory, and the forecast still calls for strengthening into a minimal hurricane. We just need to watch for a convective burst now, to see if that tips her over the edge.
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000
WTNT21 KNHC 110837
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM ARLENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012005
0900Z SAT JUN 11 2005
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF COAST FROM PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI EASTWARD TO DESTIN
FLORIDA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 24 HOURS.
A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT
FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER EASTWARD TO WEST OF PASCAGOULA
MISSISSIPPI...AND ALSO FROM EAST OF DESTIN FLORIDA EASTWARD TO
INDIAN PASS FLORIDA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN
36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL
RIVER.....INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN...AND ALSO FROM INDIAN PASS FLORIDA EASTWARD TO
STEINHATCHEE RIVER FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND ADJACENT LAND
AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 87.1W AT 11/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 16 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 75NE 0SE 0SW 45NW.
34 KT.......140NE 120SE 0SW 75NW.
12 FT SEAS..175NE 120SE 60SW 130NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 87.1W AT 11/0900Z
AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.7N 86.8W
FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 30.1N 88.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 75NE 45SE 20SW 45NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 30SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 32.5N 88.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 35.5N 88.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 39.5N 86.5W...INLAND DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.
FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.4N 87.1W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/1500Z
FORECASTER BEVEN
$$
PROBILITIES
===============================================
000
WTNT71 KNHC 110836
SPFAT1
TROPICAL STORM ARLENE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 AM CDT SAT JUN 11 2005
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF ARLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 28.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.1 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 1AM CDT TUE JUN 14 2005
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1AM SUN
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 1AM SUN TO 1PM SUN
C FROM 1PM SUN TO 1AM MON
D FROM 1AM MON TO 1AM TUE
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1AM TUE
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
FORECASTER BEVEN
$$
WTNT21 KNHC 110837
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM ARLENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012005
0900Z SAT JUN 11 2005
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF COAST FROM PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI EASTWARD TO DESTIN
FLORIDA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 24 HOURS.
A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT
FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER EASTWARD TO WEST OF PASCAGOULA
MISSISSIPPI...AND ALSO FROM EAST OF DESTIN FLORIDA EASTWARD TO
INDIAN PASS FLORIDA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN
36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL
RIVER.....INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN...AND ALSO FROM INDIAN PASS FLORIDA EASTWARD TO
STEINHATCHEE RIVER FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND ADJACENT LAND
AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 87.1W AT 11/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 16 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 75NE 0SE 0SW 45NW.
34 KT.......140NE 120SE 0SW 75NW.
12 FT SEAS..175NE 120SE 60SW 130NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 87.1W AT 11/0900Z
AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.7N 86.8W
FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 30.1N 88.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 75NE 45SE 20SW 45NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 30SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 32.5N 88.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 35.5N 88.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 39.5N 86.5W...INLAND DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.
FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.4N 87.1W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/1500Z
FORECASTER BEVEN
$$
PROBILITIES
===============================================
000
WTNT71 KNHC 110836
SPFAT1
TROPICAL STORM ARLENE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 AM CDT SAT JUN 11 2005
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF ARLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 28.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.1 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 1AM CDT TUE JUN 14 2005
Code: Select all
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
32.5N 88.5W 37 2 X X 39 GULFPORT MS 50 X X X 50
35.5N 88.5W 3 29 3 X 35 BURAS LA 37 X X X 37
39.5N 86.5W X 1 23 X 24 NEW ORLEANS LA 23 X X X 23
ST MARKS FL 1 1 X X 2 NEW IBERIA LA 2 X X X 2
APALACHICOLA FL 7 1 X X 8 GULF 29N 85W 7 X X X 7
PANAMA CITY FL 22 X X X 22 GULF 29N 87W 99 X X X 99
PENSACOLA FL 55 X X X 55 GULF 28N 89W 31 X X X 31
MOBILE AL 57 X X X 57COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1AM SUN
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 1AM SUN TO 1PM SUN
C FROM 1PM SUN TO 1AM MON
D FROM 1AM MON TO 1AM TUE
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1AM TUE
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
FORECASTER BEVEN
$$
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