I'm Becoming A Little Intriqued Here...

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HurricaneJoe22
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#21 Postby HurricaneJoe22 » Sat Jun 11, 2005 2:35 am

Let's set the record straight, Sean in New Orleans. The NHC did not get Charley wrong! The public and the media did! They hyped a Tampa landfall when it was the NHC that included a much larger area than that in their hurricane warning area.

Who agrees?
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loon
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#22 Postby loon » Sat Jun 11, 2005 2:47 am

I still say CAT1+ , new orleans, my original prediction.....


I plan to be wrong on the CAT1...looking at the pics tonight...
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Coredesat

#23 Postby Coredesat » Sat Jun 11, 2005 3:10 am

The way it looks right now, Arlene's definitely weaker. I just can't tell how much. Recon still found flight level winds of 75 MPH, but the convection has greatly diminished.

Unless something REALLY weird happens, looks like it'll be coming ashore at the AL/MS border.
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cyclonaut

#24 Postby cyclonaut » Sat Jun 11, 2005 6:24 am

This thing has been lopsided since birth..Why people keep focusing on the center is beyond me.All the weather has been east of the center the whole time.Thats the nature of ugly storms like this.

You wanna track a real center wait for a real storm.

I've seen to many naked or half naked swirls in my lifetime to get whipped up into a frenzy over this..It was nice wake up call early in the season & thats really it.

All I can say is.....

Next!
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dhweather
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#25 Postby dhweather » Sat Jun 11, 2005 6:42 am

cyclonaut wrote:This thing has been lopsided since birth..Why people keep focusing on the center is beyond me.All the weather has been east of the center the whole time.Thats the nature of ugly storms like this.

You wanna track a real center wait for a real storm.

I've seen to many naked or half naked swirls in my lifetime to get whipped up into a frenzy over this..It was nice wake up call early in the season & thats really it.

All I can say is.....

Next!



Yep. This is a tropical storm, at best.
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#26 Postby tailgater » Sat Jun 11, 2005 6:48 am

dhweather wrote:
cyclonaut wrote:This thing has been lopsided since birth..Why people keep focusing on the center is beyond me.All the weather has been east of the center the whole time.Thats the nature of ugly storms like this.

You wanna track a real center wait for a real storm.

I've seen to many naked or half naked swirls in my lifetime to get whipped up into a frenzy over this..It was nice wake up call early in the season & thats really it.

All I can say is.....

Next!

Wait til next _____!


Yep. This is a tropical storm, at best.
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#27 Postby vbhoutex » Sat Jun 11, 2005 6:50 am

HurricaneJoe22 wrote:Let's set the record straight, Sean in New Orleans. The NHC did not get Charley wrong! The public and the media did! They hyped a Tampa landfall when it was the NHC that included a much larger area than that in their hurricane warning area.

Who agrees?


Thank you!!!
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dhweather
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#28 Postby dhweather » Sat Jun 11, 2005 6:56 am

It is TOTALLY IRRESPONSIBLE to say the NHC "blew" Charlie.

A hurricane warning was in effect for a MAJOR HURRICANE for all of SW Florida. Charley wobbled right, and right into the WARNING AREA.

They don't issue warnings to humor themselves, they issue them when
Hurricanes threaten an area.

Please do not be so disrespectful of them, they had done their job, and rather well.

As for going cat 4 at landfall, NOBODY can predict rapid intensity cycles.
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#29 Postby SkeetoBite » Sat Jun 11, 2005 7:07 am

I am growing weary of individuals and businesses, specifically AccuWeather attacking the best weather resource in the world. Let's let these guys do their job.

The NHC was incredibly accurate last season within 72 hours. I have their maps, and our extreme close up maps to prove it. One point, when the NHC forecast Ivan to pass to the West of Cuba, they were accurate to within 40 miles of their forecast path... a whopping 72 hours out.

With regard to Charley; surprisingly, with the final official advisory prior to landfall, both Tampa and Fort Myers were well within the "cone of uncertainty" and each had only a 30% chance of seeing hurricane force winds given the error factor built into each forecast.
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cyclonaut

#30 Postby cyclonaut » Sat Jun 11, 2005 9:59 am

People are still hung up over the Charley thing???

Its time to let it go!The hurricane struck within the cone & in the hurricane warning area so its time to move on.the NHC makes errors here & there but its the best we have & I will take their word over that of any other individual or organization.
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