Convection forming over LLC

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Convection is forming right over the LLC. The convection to the east is fading away. In its starting to form over the center. Pro's do you agree or disagree? In with the fact that it is moving closer to land that would tighten this system up?

[Droop12]

Im not sure whats happening tonight as Im done watching Arlene so intently. Staring at loops all morning and then driving to work soon after doesnt mix. I felt very disoriented. But I have a feeling that, as alot of TS do in the morning hours, I think she may have a burst of convection near her center. So if that occurs, look for a Cat1 at landfall, if not she may just slowly gain a bit more strength before landfall.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

If it is going to form a central core. But on the other hand the convection to the northeast is what made it as strong as it is. So for the next few hours intill the "core" takes over the wind field. I expect the nhc to down it from 70 mph to around 50 mph.

Unless this thing uses the land to tighten before landfall. Then if not then this might not become a hurricane. I believe that from 3pm to 7 pm est that it might very well of been one. We will have to see in December.

[The Big Dog]

On the other hand, while the deep convection is gone, I do see the start of a distinct eye on the infrared. If so, this is the first real chance it has had to wrap convection around the center. I wouldn't be writing Arlene's eulogy yet.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[mobilebay]

There is actually convection forming on the western side.

[Derek Ortt]

what are you talking about Matt?

Downgrade this with 71kT FL winds? Come on

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

No convection to push it to the surface. Also I might of did this to fast because a area of convection is forming in the northwestern quad. In there seems to be a ring of low clouds making a eye like shape just to the southeast.

[Hurricaneman]

I don't think it will be downgraded at all, but it's still not hurricane strength

[Steve]

>>On the other hand, while the deep convection is gone, I do see the start of a distinct eye on the infrared. If so, this is the first real chance it has had to wrap convection around the center. I wouldn't be writing Arlene's eulogy yet.

The reds are gone in the western burst on the IR. If that is an eye forming south of Destin, it just rotated NE on your last frame. According to a couple of the 00z models, that would be the end of the western movement. If it's going to hit W FL, it's going to track due north. If it's going ot hit AL from its current position, it' just going to track a little west of due north. We'll see even though I hate looking at this stuff on the IR.

Steve