Hurricane Warnings Pascagoula-Destin, still a storm

[Brent]

at 10 PM CDT...0300z...a Hurricane Warning has been issued for
portions of the north central Gulf Coast from Pascagoula
Mississippi eastward to Destin Florida. A Hurricane Warning means
that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area...
generally within 24 hours.

[Stormcenter]

at 10 PM CDT...0300z...a Hurricane Warning has been issued for
portions of the north central Gulf Coast from Pascagoula
Mississippi eastward to Destin Florida. A Hurricane Warning means
that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area...
generally within 24 hours.

Is this official?

[Ixolib]

That's a pretty SMALL window... Confidence must be extremely high!

[Brent]

Yep... from the Marine advisory.

[Brent]

Tropical Storm Arlene Forecast/Advisory Number 11

Statement as of 03:00Z on June 11, 2005

at 10 PM CDT...0300z...a Hurricane Warning has been issued for
portions of the north central Gulf Coast from Pascagoula
Mississippi eastward to Destin Florida. A Hurricane Warning means
that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area...
generally within 24 hours.

A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning remain in effect
from the mouth of the Pearl River eastward to west of Pascagoula
Mississippi...and also from east of Destin Florida eastward to
Indian Pass Florida. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane
conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within
36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the northern Gulf
Coast from Grand Isle Louisiana to the mouth of the Pearl
River.....Including the city of New Orleans and Lake
Pontchartrain...and also from Indian Pass Florida eastward to
Steinhatchee river Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning means that
tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area
within the next 24 hours.

At 10 PM CDT...0300z...the Tropical Storm Warning for the Dry
Tortugas has been discontinued.

Interests elsewhere in the eastern Gulf of Mexico and adjacent land
areas should closely monitor the progress of this system.

Tropical storm center located near 27.1n 86.1w at 11/0300z
position accurate within 30 nm

present movement toward the north-northwest or 330 degrees at 14 kt

estimated minimum central pressure 989 mb
Max sustained winds 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt.
50 kt....... 75ne 0se 0sw 45nw.
34 kt.......140ne 120se 0sw 75nw.
12 ft seas..150ne 120se 50sw 130nw.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.

Repeat...center located near 27.1n 86.1w at 11/0300z
at 11/0000z center was located near 26.5n 85.6w

forecast valid 11/1200z 28.7n 87.0w
Max wind 65 kt...gusts 80 kt.
64 kt... 20ne 0se 0sw 0nw.
50 kt... 75ne 45se 20sw 45nw.
34 kt...140ne 120se 30sw 90nw.

Forecast valid 12/0000z 31.0n 88.0w...inland
Max wind 55 kt...gusts 65 kt.
50 kt... 30ne 30se 0sw 0nw.
34 kt... 85ne 120se 0sw 40nw.

Forecast valid 12/1200z 33.5n 88.0w...dissipating inland
Max wind 30 kt...gusts 40 kt.

Forecast valid 13/0000z 37.0n 87.6w...dissipating inland
Max wind 20 kt...gusts 30 kt.

Forecast valid 14/0000z...dissipated inland

request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 27.1n 86.1w

next advisory at 11/0900z

forecaster Stewart

[Guest]

Based on current coordinates and previous points a NW trend has set in until landfall on Mississippi coast. Ya'll stay tuned.... Yee Haw

[HurryKane]

Based on current coordinates and previous points a NW trend has set in until landfall on Mississippi coast. Ya'll stay tuned.... Yee Haw

You're crazy, but in a rather consistent nutball kind of way.

[iceangel]

at 10 PM CDT...0300z...a Hurricane Warning has been issued for
portions of the north central Gulf Coast from Pascagoula
Mississippi eastward to Destin Florida. A Hurricane Warning means
that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area...
generally within 24 hours.

Is this official?

000
WTNT21 KNHC 110250
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM ARLENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012005
0300Z SAT JUN 11 2005

AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST FROM PASCAGOULA
MISSISSIPPI EASTWARD TO DESTIN FLORIDA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...
GENERALLY WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT
FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER EASTWARD TO WEST OF PASCAGOULA
MISSISSIPPI...AND ALSO FROM EAST OF DESTIN FLORIDA EASTWARD TO
INDIAN PASS FLORIDA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN
36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL
RIVER.....INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN...AND ALSO FROM INDIAN PASS FLORIDA EASTWARD TO
STEINHATCHEE RIVER FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE DRY
TORTUGAS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND ADJACENT LAND
AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.1N 86.1W AT 11/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 75NE 0SE 0SW 45NW.
34 KT.......140NE 120SE 0SW 75NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 50SW 130NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.1N 86.1W AT 11/0300Z
AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.5N 85.6W

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 28.7N 87.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 75NE 45SE 20SW 45NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 30SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 31.0N 88.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 85NE 120SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 33.5N 88.0W...DISSIPATING INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 37.0N 87.6W...DISSIPATING INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.1N 86.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z

FORECASTER STEWART


$$


===============================================


000
WTNT71 KNHC 110251
SPFAT1
TROPICAL STORM ARLENE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2005

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF ARLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 27.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.1 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 7PM CDT MON JUN 13 2005

Code: Select all

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

31.0N  88.0W      37  X  X  X 37   GULFPORT MS       33  X  X  X 33
33.5N  88.0W       8 21  2  X 31   BURAS LA          24  1  X  X 25
37.0N  87.6W       X  6 19  X 25   NEW ORLEANS LA    17  2  X  X 19
ST MARKS FL        5  4  X  X  9   NEW IBERIA LA      2  2  X  X  4
APALACHICOLA FL   18  1  X  X 19   GULF 29N 85W      24  X  1  X 25
PANAMA CITY FL    27  1  X  X 28   GULF 29N 87W      64  X  X  X 64
PENSACOLA FL      41  X  X  X 41   GULF 28N 89W      20  X  X  X 20
MOBILE AL         39  X  X  X 39   GULF 28N 91W       1  1  X  X  2

COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 7PM SAT
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 7PM SAT TO 7AM SUN
C FROM 7AM SUN TO 7PM SUN
D FROM 7PM SUN TO 7PM MON
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 7PM MON
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER STEWART


$$

[Ixolib]

Based on current coordinates and previous points a NW trend has set in until landfall on Mississippi coast. Ya'll stay tuned.... Yee Haw

Could you offer a little more detail on your perspective?

[Josephine96]

I'm tellin ya.. Stacy Stewart must need some money.. He's got dollar signs on the bottom of his forecasts lol

[Guest]

Based on current coordinates and previous points a NW trend has set in until landfall on Mississippi coast. Ya'll stay tuned.... Yee Haw

Could you offer a little more detail on your perspective?

Yep, Its headed that way.

[Radar]

If Arlene suddenly makes a shot for the MS Gulf Coast I'm afraid alot of people wont be ready for it. The general consenus today at work was "All the media attention is on the Florida Panhandle it is not coming here". One of the guys at work even made the statement of "I know the storm is not coming here because Jim Cantore is reporting from Pensacola." I asked the cashier at the store tonight if she sold alot of hurricane supplies today and she said "Not really"... I feel that the media may have done a disservice to others areas under the watch/warning today by mainly focusing on one area. I think the media may have given many residents a false sense of security. Any comments?

[HurryKane]

If Arlene suddenly makes a shot for the MS Gulf Coast I'm afraid alot of people wont be ready for it. The general consenus today at work was "All the media attention is on the Florida Panhandle it is not coming here". One of the guys at work even made the statement of "I know the storm is not coming here because Jim Cantore is reporting from Pensacola." I asked the cashier at the store tonight if she sold alot of hurricane supplies today and she said "Not really"... I feel that the media may have done a disservice to others areas under the watch/warning today by mainly focusing on one area. I think the media may have given many residents a false sense of security. Any comments?

I'd agree wholeheartedly with your comments. A few folks were buying water in Gulfport this afternoon, but we had one squall in Hancock Cty and then things got hot, dry and sunny...and stayed that way until nightfall. Very few over here are expecting her to come this way and she might give us a nasty surprise.

However, Harrison Cty did declare a state of emergency, so folks closer to the current forecast track might be preparing more than we think.

[Guest]

I'm tellin ya.. Stacy Stewart must need some money.. He's got dollar signs on the bottom of his forecasts lol

FYI for anyone that wonders: Those "$$" symbols seen on most, if not all, NWS/SPC/TPC products denote the end of the statement. With the NOAA Weather Radio automated voice, the "$$" signs tell the computer that the end of the statement has been reached and to start broadcasting the next product.

[dhweather]

It's old teletype format for END OF MESSAGE, you'll also see NNNN
to signal end of message.

[Lindaloo]

Based on current coordinates and previous points a NW trend has set in until landfall on Mississippi coast. Ya'll stay tuned.... Yee Haw

Do you have data to back up this thinking? I do not know how long you have lived on the coast but wanting one to come here or anywhere is just downright insane!

[Radar]

I agree Linda... I certainly dont wish it on our neighbors in AL or FLA but if Arlene decides to stay away from the MS Gulf Coast then I'm all for it. My heartfelt thoughts and prayers are with the ones in path of the storm but I'm just hoping it wont be me!!

[Brent]

Based on current coordinates and previous points a NW trend has set in until landfall on Mississippi coast. Ya'll stay tuned.... Yee Haw

Do you have data to back up this thinking? I do not know how long you have lived on the coast but wanting one to come here or anywhere is just downright insane!

I have no clue... he lives in Mobile though which a MS hit would put him in the worst part of the storm.

[HarrisonEOC]

However, Harrison Cty did declare a state of emergency, so folks closer to the current forecast track might be preparing more than we think.[/quote]

I assure everyone the Harrison EOC is watching the situation very close. Feel free to ask any question pertaining to the emergency.

[HurryKane]

I assure everyone the Harrison EOC is watching the situation very close. Feel free to ask any question pertaining to the emergency.

Hiya! What are the plans for Harrison tomorrow if Arlene stays on track, and if she shifts westward? Thanks