Statement as of 8:00 PM EDT on June 10, 2005
...Arlene becoming better organized as it moves toward the
northern Gulf Coast...could become a hurricane by Saturday...
A Hurricane Watch remains in effect from the mouth of the Pearl
River to Indian Pass Florida. A Hurricane Watch means that
hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area...
generally within 36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the northern Gulf
Coast from Grand Isle Louisiana to Steinhatchee river Florida...
including the city of New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain. A
Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the Dry Tortugas.
Interests elsewhere in the eastern Gulf of Mexico and adjacent land
areas should closely monitor the progress of this system.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
At 8 PM EDT...0000z...the center of Tropical Storm Arlene was
located near latitude 26.4 north... longitude 85.6 west or about
280 miles southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River and
about 295 miles south-southeast of Pensacola Florida.
Arlene is now moving north-northwestward near 18 mph...and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours. On
this track...the center of Arlene will be approaching the northern
coast of the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. Arlene is a large tropical
storm...and most of the associated rain and winds will arrive much
earlier than the center.
Recent data from a NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that
maximum sustained winds have now increased to near 70 mph...with
higher gusts...and these winds are occurring mainly to the north
and east of the center. Some strengthening is forecast during the
next 24 hours...and Arlene could become a hurricane later tonight
or on Saturday.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 150 miles... mainly
to the north and east of the center.
The minimum central pressure reported by a NOAA reconnaissance
aircraft was 992 mb...29.29 inches.
Heavy rainfall associated with Arlene is expected to continue across
central and western Cuba and most of Florida. Additional rainfall
amounts of 3 to 5 inches is possible across these regions...with
isolated maximum amounts of up to 7 inches. Heavy rain associated
with Arlene will continue to spread northward through the southeast
...Southern Appalachians...Tennessee Valley and Ohio Valley this
evening into this weekend. Storm total precipitation of 4 to 8
inches is expected along and to the east of the track of Arlene...
with isolated amounts up to 12 inches along the central to
eastern Gulf Coast states.
Coastal storm surge flooding of 2 to 4 feet above normal tide
levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be
expected near and to the east of where the center makes landfall.
Water levels are currently about one-half foot above normal tide
levels along the northern Gulf Coast.
Isolated tornadoes could occur over portions of southern and
west-central Florida and the Florida Keys tonight.
Repeating the 8 PM EDT position...26.4 N... 85.6 W. Movement
toward...north-northwest near 18 mph. Maximum sustained winds...
70 mph. Minimum central pressure... 992 mb.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center
at 11 PM EDT.
Forecaster Stewart
Holy mother can you say boarder line hurricane?
