70 MPH SAYS NRL

[HURAKAN]

It seems Arlene is getting closer and closer to becoming the season first hurricane, NRL indicates that Arlene has winds of 60 knots or 70 mph.

[PTrackerLA]

Sure doesn't look like a hurricane.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The center is nearly all the way under the convection. This will be a hurricane unleast something changes.

[dixiebreeze]

That sure looks too close to Florida's west coast for comfort.

[Brent]

Sure doesn't look like a hurricane.

Looks better than Earl and he was a full-fledged hurricane, he sure didn't look it.

[N2Storms]

Looks better than Earl and he was a full-fledged hurricane, he sure didn't look it.



I was just going to say post that myself. Earl had that exact "comma" signature. He dumped alot of rain here in Panama City...

[PTrackerLA]

Sure doesn't look like a hurricane.

Looks better than Earl and he was a full-fledged hurricane, he sure didn't look it.

Well that is true . I don't think it will make much of a difference if its a cat 1 or a strong TS, there shouldn't be too much wind damage in these areas considering Ivan probably took out most of the weaker structures, trees, etc. Also should be moving at a fast pace so hopefully no Alberto-like flooding.

Edit: one more note on Earl; boy was that a horribly forecasted system! We were under hurricane warnings and all that, was supposed to hit here and where did it go at the last minute?

[melhow]

That sure looks too close to Florida's west coast for comfort.

Dixie,

Current distance between Pinellas/Pasco and the center of Arlene is 334.34 miles.

NHC forecast distance between Pinellas/Pasco and center of Arlene in 12 hours (assuming she stays on the forecast NHC course) will be 306.83 miles. We will be at least 150 miles outside of the farthest forecast Tropical Storm force winds.

Rain and flooding, however, is another story, especially up by you...

[Brent]

Edit: one more note on Earl; boy was that a horribly forecasted system! We were under hurricane warnings and all that, was supposed to hit here and where did it go at the last minute?

I remember that... at one time or another, everyone from Western LA to just north of Tampa was under a watch or warning of some kind.

[uknowmeitsmattp]

could you post the link or whatever info you found that told you it was 70mph? thanks.

[StormChasr]

I have no doubt that it will now be a hurricane. Weak cat 1, but there have been worse looking 'canes. Watch out, North Gulf coast.

[Brent]

could you post the link or whatever info you found that told you it was 70mph? thanks.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_d ... N-850W.jpg

60 kt is 70 mph...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

At don't think it look bad at all. What I see looking at the data is that the center is nearly all the way under the convection. It appears the banding has improved. In outflow is good on every where but western in southwestern.

[Hurricanehink]

Wow, that was fast! It was only a minimal storm like 12 hours ago.

[Scorpion]

Wow, wouldnt want to be on a boat right now in the center of Arlene. When Arlene was a TD/minimal TS the winds on deck were gusting in excess of 50 mph. Imagine now, maybe 80 mph gusts or more.

[canegrl04]

Its not what it looks like that counts.Its how strong it is

[uknowmeitsmattp]

Where does it say 60kt in that picture?

[Wnghs2007]

Where does it say 60kt in that picture?

It says it in the link of the picture

[dhweather]

Nothings against NRL, but I'll stick with the NHC.

[uknowmeitsmattp]

They could have easily done that on accident since it is 60mph. Why then, do no recon reports have it at 60kt?