11am Arlene-Hurricane Watch-Pearl River to Panama City

[Brent]

Tropical Storm Arlene Advisory Number 9


Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on June 10, 2005


...Arlene strengthens in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico...
...Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm Warning issued for the
northern Gulf Coast...

at 11 am...1500 UTC...a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for
the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico from Grand Isle Louisiana
to St Marks Florida...including Lake Pontchartrain. Also at 11 am
...A Hurricane Watch has been issued from the mouth of the Pearl
River to Panama City Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning means that
tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area
within the next 24 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane
conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 36
hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the Dry Tortugas.

A tropical storm watch remains in effect from west of Grand Isle
Louisiana to Morgan City Louisiana. A tropical storm watch means
that tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area
during the next 36 hr.

At 11 am EDT...the Tropical Storm Warning for Cuba has been
discontinued.

Interests elsewhere in the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico should closely monitor the progress of
this system.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

Satellite images...aircraft data...and surface observations indicate
that the poorly-defined center of Arlene has reformed a little
north of the previous position. At 11 am EDT...1500z...the center
of Tropical Storm Arlene was estimated near latitude 24.0 north...
longitude 84.9 west or about 440 miles... 705 km... southeast of
the mouth of the Mississippi River and about 470 miles... 755
km...south-southeast of Pensacola Florida.

Arlene is moving toward the north near 13 mph...20 km/hr.
A gradual turn toward the north-northwest with a slight increase in
forward speed is expected during the next 24 hours. On this
track...the center of Arlene will be approaching the northern coast
of the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. However...most of the weather
associated with Arlene will arrive much earlier than the center.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph... 95 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours...and
it is possible that Arlene could reach hurricane strength before
landfall.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
...240 km...mainly to the north and east of the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb...29.53 inches.
Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 3 inches are possible over
western and central Cuba. General 3 to 5 inch rains with isolated
heavier amounts to over 7 inches are possible across southern and
central Florida over the next 24 hours. Heavy rainfall associated
with Arlene will begin to impact the eastern and central Gulf Coast
region by Friday evening.
Coastal storm surge flooding of 2 to 4 feet above normal tide
levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be
expected near and to the east of where the center makes landfall.
Water levels are currently about one-half foot above normal tide
levels along the northern Gulf Coast.
Isolated tornadoes may occur over portions of southern Florida and
the Florida Keys today.

Repeating the 11 am EDT position...24.0 N... 84.9 W. Movement
toward...north near 13 mph. Maximum sustained winds... 60 mph.
Minimum central pressure...1000 mb.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 2 PM EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 5 PM
EDT.

Forecaster Knabb/Avila

[Aquawind]

60mph and heading north..

Satellite images...aircraft data...and surface observations indicate
that the poorly-defined center of Arlene has reformed a little
north of the previous position.

Paul

[Rainband]

interesting.

[Roxy]

Anyone have an opinion on whether I should drive to New Orleans this weekend?

I'm thinking no, but can't convince my friends of that. Arg.

[Brent]

[Aquawind]

Looking at the Sat loops and seeing the clouds and convection starting to fill in around the system and with the recent strengthening.. I think a Cane is at least 50/50 now.. Heck it jumped 20 mph in less than 12 hours.. If shear does weaken as forecasted ..badda bing..

Paul

[PTrackerLA]

Anyone have an opinion on whether I should drive to New Orleans this weekend?

I'm thinking no, but can't convince my friends of that. Arg.

Honestly I think you will be fine. New Orleans will be on the west side (dry side) of the system and at most they might have a few showers and breezy conditions tomorrow night.

[Stormcenter]

It looks to me like Arlene will not be as lopsided a storm as I thought a few days ago. My point is those along even the SE LA. coastline may see some squally weather tonight and tomorrow. I'm still looking for a MS/AL landfall tomorrow.
Just my two cents.

[dixiebreeze]

I just don't see it ultimately tracking as far west as predicted. That eastern high is not that impressive.

[Roxy]

Anyone have an opinion on whether I should drive to New Orleans this weekend?

I'm thinking no, but can't convince my friends of that. Arg.

Honestly I think you will be fine. New Orleans will be on the west side (dry side) of the system and at most they might have a few showers and breezy conditions tomorrow night.

Ok, thanks. I will keep watching it.

[Stormcenter]

Anyone have an opinion on whether I should drive to New Orleans this weekend?

I'm thinking no, but can't convince my friends of that. Arg.

Honestly I think you will be fine. New Orleans will be on the west side (dry side) of the system and at most they might have a few showers and breezy conditions tomorrow night.

Look to your west on radar and see what is approaching the Big Easy this morning. They may see squally weather in N.O. as early as tonight.

[Brent]

Discussion:

Arlene has strengthened while entering the Gulf of Mexico. An Air
Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft reported a maximum 850 mb
flight level wind of 64 kt about 110 nm northeast of the center at
1130z. This corresponds to about 50 kt at the surface...which is
the basis for the advisory intensity. The 34 and 50 kt wind radii
have also been expanded based upon this data...and based upon a 35
kt report from ship pfrx at 1200z. The vertical wind shear appears
to be weakening...and Arlene could strengthen a little more before
landfall...as suggested by the SHIPS model which forecasts 60 kt in
24 hours. However...Arlene could reach the coast as a minimal
hurricane.
Since yesterday...Arlene has been characterized by a broad
circulation with a poorly-defined center. In fact...several
centers have been rotating around the much larger circulation. The
initial position...which is somewhat relocated to the north of the
previous track...is based upon a mean of the various smaller
circulations. Despite the relocation to the north...Arlene is
expected to move toward the north-northwest at about 14 kt across
the eastern Gulf of Mexico along the western periphery of the
building ridge over the western Atlantic. This is the solution
provided by most of the dynamical guidance.

The forecast track and wind radii require a Tropical Storm Warning
and a Hurricane Watch for the northern Gulf Coast at this time.

Forecaster Knabb/Avila

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 10/1500z 24.0n 84.9w 50 kt
12hr VT 11/0000z 26.2n 85.9w 55 kt
24hr VT 11/1200z 28.8n 87.3w 60 kt(70 mph)
36hr VT 12/0000z 31.1n 88.5w 50 kt...inland
48hr VT 12/1200z 33.8n 88.8w 30 kt...inland
72hr VT 13/1200z 40.0n 86.5w 25 kt...inland dissipating
96hr VT 14/1200z...dissipated

[LilNoles2005]

Sweetness, TS Warnings extended eastward to my neck of the woods (St. Marks, Wakulla County).

Let the good times roll!

[Wpwxguy]

Well the Pearl River is only 15 miles from me to my east, just barely out of the hurricane watch. Wow. squalls are already approaching the coast. Arlene may take us all by surprise.

[yoda]

And the fun begins!

[canegrl04]

Got a bad feeling about her.I think she will be right at hurricane strength before she makes landfall.Early this morning,tv mets were saying Arlene wouldn't get any stronger than 45mph by landfall

[Stratusxpeye]

I wanan get in my car and take the 6 hour trip northwest to mobile This is a good storm to chase. Not too deadly but decent. She looks good now. Wow 60mph in 12 hours shes getting there.

[LilNoles2005]

Stratus, I'm thinking about doing the same from Tally.......

[AL Chili Pepper]

Looking at the Sat loops and seeing the clouds and convection starting to fill in around the system and with the recent strengthening.. I think a Cane is at least 50/50 now.. Heck it jumped 20 mph in less than 12 hours.. If shear does weaken as forecasted ..badda bing..

Paul

I agree...it looks like the clouds are starting to fill in to the NW. Looks like it could be a cane after all. I keep hearing we'll see some more shear just off the coast though. We'll see.

[AL Chili Pepper]

I wanan get in my car and take the 6 hour trip northwest to mobile This is a good storm to chase. Not too deadly but decent. She looks good now. Wow 60mph in 12 hours shes getting there.

I've driven to Tampa many time.....525 miles.