Arlene forecast 2: Strengthening as she travels the Gulf

[Josephine96]

EXPERIMENTAL HURRICANE FORECAST
TROPICAL STORM ARLENE
NJN WEATHER CENTER
THURS JUN 9TH 2005
850 PM

DISCLAIMER:
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products



Minimal Tropical Storm Arlene is currently making a progress around the Western side of Cuba. Arlene is a minimal storm with winds of 40 mph right now.. but is expected to strengthen. TS Warnings are in effect for Cuba's western side, as well as for the Dry Tortugas' in extreme south Florida.

Arlene continues to be a large, disorganized storm. A lot of her clouds and storms have been blown to the north. Central Florida even received rains today, that may have been an indirect effect of Arlene.

Arlene is still on her current forecast track to the north.. Most computer models are still mixed on her final landfall spot. The NHC predicts a landfall around Mississippi or Alabama. My thinking has Arlene possibly making it a little further east than that.

here's why. The more she's disorganized, the more she'll be pulled apart in different directions, her convection, CDO, and LLC may become exposed if shear doesn't relax. This may allow Arlene to take a different path.

My experimental analysis tonight has Arlene continuing to the North.. with a slight jog to the east at the end of the period. Possibly into the extreme western Fla Panhandle as a modest tropical storm. Gulf Coast residents, should continue to watch Arlene's progress.

Arlene has the potential to be a catastrophic flooding event. If she moves slowly, she will sit on top of areas. Some that may already been saturated, and drop inch after inch of rain. It's too early to make rainfall estimates. But they be pretty high.

Here's the experimental 5 day track on Arlene:

Friday: Into the extreme southern Gulf. Slow strengthening. Max Winds: 45 mph
Saturday: Accleration.. perhaps the slight NE jog. Nearing landfall in Alabama or extreme western Florida. Max Winds: 55 mph
Sunday: Just a regular ole low pressure. Max Winds: 25 mph

DISCLAIMER:
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Josephine96]

evidently nobody had an opinion this time lol

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

That was a wonderful forecast. Keep up the good work..

[Josephine96]

LOL Matt.. now you say that

[mobilebay]

boy looking at IR 2 she has a strong circulation, but is as naked as a jaybird. i noticed the clouds or starting to become thicker to the Northwest, so maybe it's starting to run out of that "dry slot" the hurricane center was talking about.

[TSmith274]

DISCLAIMER:
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products

No sh^t Sherlock Just kidding