Dry Air

[jax]

this gives us a great view of what's going on
on the left side West side of Arlene... It looks
like the dry air has just about finished it's push
to the east and south... should start to reteat now.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[slowjoe]

But look at the dry air still shoving east around lattitude 18. And there is still a ton of dry air rushing into the gulf from Texas. I think that air is going to deflate this baby.

[vbhoutex]

Have to agree with Jax on this one. It is already showing the beginning of the retreat where Arlene is headed. I don't think she is going to ingest enough dry air to poof her, but maybe enough to slow down her strengtening process for the next 12-24 hours.

[Brent]

If she were to headed to the Western Gulf I would agree, but she's going to stay out of most of the dry air in the Gulf(certainly the worst of it).

[Steve]

slow,

Often early/late/hybrid storms are up against the wall (dry wall ) so to speak. That usually doesn't have much affect on the weaker systems as it does when the big dogs entrain the dry air because it's just part of their nature. It makes 'em lopsided, but it doesn't destroy them.

Steve

[jax]

it's actuallt the steering mechanism...
this dry are masses reteat north is
going to be lifting Arlene and instigate
her acceleration north...

[slowjoe]

Just taking a look at the most recent water vapor loops and perhaps...GASP....I was wrong.

It seems the dry air is retreating around the 25 degrees and could allow for some wrap around.

Very Interesting.

[Droop12]

If thats the case we just need shear to relax a bit to give Arlene a chance to cover up, she's quite exposed at the moment.

[HurricaneBill]

If thats the case we just need shear to relax a bit to give Arlene a chance to cover up, she's quite exposed at the moment.

You peeping Tom!