Recon Reports

[mf_dolphin]

46 kts at flight level would convert as follows;

80% - (46*.80) = 36.8kts * 1.15 = 42.32 MPH
90% - (46*.90) = 41.4kts * 1.15 = 47.61 MPH

[LSU2001]

Thanks a bunch,
Tim

[cycloneye]

URNT11 KNHC 092215
97779 22094 50195 85200 04700 35020 23231 /0003
43410
RMK AF302 0301A ARLENE OB 09


350 degrees,20kts

[cycloneye]

102
URNT11 KNHC 092303
97779 22594 50198 82600 04700 18029 23232 /0003
42020
RMK AF302 0301A ARLENE OB 11


180 degrees=29kts,232 degrees,32kts,1003 mbs

[cycloneye]

890
URNT12 KNHC 092344
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 09/23:27:40Z
B. 20 deg 10 min N
084 deg 10 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. 20 kt
E. 100 deg 071 nm
F. 186 deg 030 kt
G. 106 deg 089 nm
H. EXTRAP 1001 mb
I. 24 C/ 469 m
J. 24 C/ 469 m
K. 23 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134 / 1
O. 0.02 / 15 nm
P. AF302 0301A ARLENE OB 12
MAX FL WIND 46 KT N QUAD 21:15:20 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.
WEAK CENTER; NOT WELL ORGANIZED


Ummm a weak center and 46kts at North Quadrant..

[Derek Ortt]

there are two centers

the old one is dying and the new one is taking over, becoming the dominant one. Not a surprise at all from the recon data

[cycloneye]

there are two centers

the old one is dying and the new one is taking over, becoming the dominant one. Not a surprise at all from the recon data

Derek they still are looking at the old one ?

[hurricanedude]

why are they not aware of the new center? whats it going to take for them to go to the right spot

[MWatkins]

there are two centers

the old one is dying and the new one is taking over, becoming the dominant one. Not a surprise at all from the recon data

Derek they still are looking at the old one ?

They are probably fixing both. There is a center there so they are fixing it...but that one is probably on it's way out.

However...a tropical storm with 2 centers is not exactly the best case scenario for intensification.

Arlene is still a pretty big mess overall.

MW

[cycloneye]

610
URNT11 KNHC 100002
97779 23584 50212 83218 04700 15027 23239 /0003
RMK AF302 0301A ARLENE OB 13


232 degrees,39 kts

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

39 knots at the surface

ELWX5 S 2300 20.60 -86.30 121 282 350 39.0 45.1 - - - - 29.61 -0.07 80.2 83.8 75.0 - -
C6FM9 S 2300 23.80 -82.10 246 28 80 32.1 - - - - - 29.80 +0.00 80.6 84.2 -


ELWX5 S 0000 20.50 -85.90 97 281 350 42.0 45.1 - - - - 29.59 -0.04 81.3 83.3 73.9 -

Wow 42 knots reported

[cycloneye]

388
UZNT13 KNHC 100119
XXAA 60014 99231 70868 08136 99004 27641 05023 00033 27240 05024
92718 21626 06023 85450 18244 06023 70090 08810 04516 50581 04513
08009 40754 15317 17512 88999 77999
31313 09608 80102
61616 AF302 0301A ARLENE OB 14
62626 SPL 2312N08685W 0113 MBL WND 05524 AEV 20507 DLM WND 06516
003404 WL150 05024 081 =
XXBB 60018 99231 70868 08136 00004 27641 11934 22021 22892 20856
33850 18244 44737 10810 55515 02721 66424 11926 77360 21522
21212 00004 05023 11915 07022 22850 06023 33782 04514 44750 06013
55709 04516 66647 07519 77570 05516 88557 07012 99545 06010 11458
08003 22444 13510 33412 17014 44360 14514
31313 09608 80102
61616 AF302 0301A ARLENE OB 14
62626 SPL 2312N08685W 0113 MBL WND 05524 AEV 20507 DLM WND 06516
003404 WL150 05024 081 =


A dropsonde was dropped at 0:34 z.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Wow I think the new LLC has made landfall. Also look at that outflow on the north in northeast quads!!! I'm guesting but I think so on the very western tip of Cuba.


http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html

[tailgater]

Has anyone confirmed that there are actually 2 LLc's

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The old way is said to be on its last leg. There needs to be a new LLC or bye bye Arlene.

[clfenwi]

39 knots at the surface

ELWX5 S 2300 20.60 -86.30 121 282 350 39.0 45.1 - - - - 29.61 -0.07 80.2 83.8 75.0 - -
C6FM9 S 2300 23.80 -82.10 246 28 80 32.1 - - - - - 29.80 +0.00 80.6 84.2 -


ELWX5 S 0000 20.50 -85.90 97 281 350 42.0 45.1 - - - - 29.59 -0.04 81.3 83.3 73.9 -

Wow 42 knots reported

The reports from ELWX5 are gusts, not sustained: http://www.sailwx.info/shiptrack/shippo ... call=ELWX5

Pondering the direction of the wind reported by C6FM9, it seems that wind isn't representative of the broader circulation (i.e. there was a thunderstorm overhead/passing through att)

[Steve]

It was obvious today - possibly as many as 4 that I could kind of pick out - but 2 main centers orbiting each other around the center.

Steve

[cycloneye]

327
URNT11 KNHC 100146
97779 01444 60267 88400 79200 18029 7388/ /8043
RMK AF302 0301A ARLENE OB 15
LAST REPORT


Ok folks this is the last report from this mission.Plane returns to base.

[Stormcenter]

It really is hard to tell where the *ell the center is in this thing.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[TampaFl]