Center Up further North...East

#1 Postby **MWatkins** » Thu Jun 09, 2005 5:39 pm

Recon just got this fix in...

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... RNT12.KNHC

Stronger winds (flight winds 48 knots). Also, max flight temps were another 1/2 degree east of the surface center.

Could be an artifact of shear or the center trying to get under the deep convection.

More later...

MW

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #2 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Thu Jun 09, 2005 5:41 pm

I agree 100 percent. I think the new center is forming under the convection. In if so our storm has just gained what was holding it back. Which is convection over its cirualtion/LLC.

#3 Postby **Wpwxguy** » Thu Jun 09, 2005 5:43 pm

It looks like the old LLC we've watched today is dissapating somewhat. I agree Mike that this could be the center trying to reform north and east. Storms are looking pretty potent in that area.

#4 Postby **LAwxrgal** » Thu Jun 09, 2005 5:44 pm

Mike, wouldn't you agree that in light of this new information, the track would have to be shifted to the east a bit? I think the new run of the GFS, if this information is correct, is too far left.

#5 Postby **tracyswfla** » Thu Jun 09, 2005 5:44 pm

Wpwxguy wrote:It looks like the old LLC we've watched today is dissapating somewhat. I agree Mike that this could be the center trying to reform north and east. Storms are looking pretty potent in that area.

Can you all elaborate about the N and E component to the "new" center?

Thank you!

#6 Postby **HURAKAN** » Thu Jun 09, 2005 5:45 pm

Wpwxguy wrote:It looks like the old LLC we've watched today is dissapating somewhat. I agree Mike that this could be the center trying to reform north and east. Storms are looking pretty potent in that area.

Exactly,

STORMS = STRONGER ARLENE!
LLC

BASIC.

#7 Postby **LAwxrgal** » Thu Jun 09, 2005 5:45 pm

Tracy, the old center (the "naked swirl" is disappearing and a new one is forming underneath the deep convection. It doesn't necessarily mean that it's changed direction.

#8 Postby **tracyswfla** » Thu Jun 09, 2005 5:46 pm

LAwxrgal wrote:Tracy, the old center (the "naked swirl" is disappearing and a new one is forming underneath the deep convection. It doesn't necessarily mean that it's changed direction.

Thank you!!!!

Website · #9 Postby **Brent** » Thu Jun 09, 2005 5:46 pm

The storm is NOT moving northeast... this would be a reformation of the primary center(common with weak disorganized systems). It would cause the track to be shifted a *few* miles east most likely.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #10 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Thu Jun 09, 2005 5:46 pm

When a LLC forms under a area of deep convection with outflow on the northeastern quad of it=Watch out. This could be playing a Alex.

#11 Postby **tracyswfla** » Thu Jun 09, 2005 5:48 pm

Brent wrote:The storm is NOT moving northeast... this would be a reformation of the primary center(common with weak disorganized systems). It would cause the track to be shifted a *few* miles east most likely.

Thanks Brent

Anonymous · #12 Postby **Anonymous** » Thu Jun 09, 2005 5:48 pm

Wouldnt the reformation of the center cause the track to shift East a bit and possibly affect the Keys more than just Dry Tortugas?

Website · #13 Postby **Brent** » Thu Jun 09, 2005 5:49 pm

Jekyhe32210 wrote:Wouldnt the track shift East a bit and possibly affect the Keys more than just Dry Tortugas?

A little... but the affects will be the same. Squalls and heavy rain. Nasty weather.

#14 Postby **Wpwxguy** » Thu Jun 09, 2005 5:50 pm

Tracy the convection has really flared up over the last few hours northeast of the exposed circulation that the Hurricane center has been following. Looking at sat. imagery it looks like a new circulation is forming and this may be backed up by data from the recon a little later on. We don't know for sure, its only an observation at this point. But it looks like a good bet. If it were to happen then it could allow for more development.

Bill

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #15 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Thu Jun 09, 2005 5:51 pm

Wpwxguy wrote:Tracy the convection has really flared up over the last few hours northeast of the exposed circulation that the Hurricane center has been following. Looking at sat. imagery it looks like a new circulation is forming and this may be backed up by data from the recon a little later on. We don't know for sure, its only an observation at this point. But it looks like a good bet. If it were to happen then it could allow for more development.

Bill

Wpwxguy thats what I'm trying to hit on. Watch this very close now. I think if things play out then a weak hurricane maybe?

#16 Postby **tracyswfla** » Thu Jun 09, 2005 5:54 pm

Thank you very much for the explanations! What, if anything is going on with the ridge that is forecasted to build?

Thanks again! You are the best!

Agua · #17 Postby **Agua** » Thu Jun 09, 2005 5:54 pm

Anything that will move it east of us is a good thing.

#18 Postby **tracyswfla** » Thu Jun 09, 2005 5:55 pm

Agua wrote:Anything that will move it east of us is a good thing.

East is Florida !

Agua · #19 Postby **Agua** » Thu Jun 09, 2005 5:55 pm

Sorry, not my problem.

#20 Postby **feederband** » Thu Jun 09, 2005 5:57 pm

Agua wrote:Sorry, not my problem.

Center Up further North...East

Center Up further North...East

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