June Update=More confirmation of no el nino by NOAA

[cycloneye]

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP
June 9, 2005



Synopsis: ENSO-neutral conditions are expected during the northern summer and fall (June-November) 2005.

Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies decreased by more than 2°C in the eastern equatorial Pacific during May (Fig. 1, bottom). By the end of the month, negative equatorial SST anomalies were observed in most areas between 120°W and the South American coast (Fig. 1, top). The decrease in SST anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific during May was reflected by a decrease in the SST anomalies in the Niño 3 and Niño 1+2 regions (Fig. 2) and by a decrease in the upper-ocean heat content in the eastern half of the equatorial Pacific (Fig. 3). These features were associated with the upwelling phase of an eastward-propagating Kelvin wave. No additional Kelvin wave activity is expected, since the MJO has weakened during the last few weeks (Fig. 4) and the overall patterns of tropical convection, low-level winds and upper-level winds are near average.

A majority of the statistical and coupled model forecasts (Fig. 5) indicate that ENSO-neutral conditions will prevail during the northern summer (June-August) and fall (September-November). The spread in the forecasts indicates increasing uncertainty during the last half of 2005.



http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... _advisory/

No surprise from NOAA in this June update that el nino wont wake up during the 2005 hurricane season meaning a more longer season in terms of duration distint from last 2004 season when the bulk of the action was from August to early October caused by a weak el nino as the effects from that factor will be absent and that is less shear in the Atlantic.

[cycloneye]

Bumping as I know that many didn't see this as it went to second page.