Arlene 4pm CDT Advisory 1001 mb

[jax]

Tropical Storm Arlene Advisory Number 6


Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on June 09, 2005


...Most of the weather associated with Arlene already affecting
Cuba...squalls gradually spreading northward...

a Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the Dry Tortugas.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for western Cuba from
Pinar del Rio to the city of Havana and Havana provinces...including
the Isle of Youth.

At 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...the government of the Cayman Islands has
discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for the Cayman Islands.

Interests elsewhere in the northwestern Caribbean and the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico should closely monitor the progress of
this system.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 5 PM EDT...2100z...the poorly-defined center of Tropical Storm
Arlene was located near latitude 20.2 north...longitude 84.2 west
or about 115 miles... 180 km...south-southeast of the western tip
of Cuba.

Arlene is moving toward the north near 8 mph...13 km/hr. On this
track...the center of Arlene will cross near or over western Cuba
tonight or early Friday. However...most of the weather is currently
arriving well in advance of the center. A gradual increase in
forward speed and a turn toward the north-northwest is expected
on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph... 65 km/hr...with
higher gusts mainly to the north and east of the center. Some
modest strengthening is possible during the next 24 hours.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles...220 km
to the north and east of the center.

Minimum central pressure just reported by an Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance plane was 1001 mb...29.56 inches.
Heavy rainfall...accompanied by squalls...is spreading across the
Cayman Islands...as well as central and western Cuba and into
extreme southern Florida...especially the Keys. Total rainfall
amounts of 5 to 10 inches are possible mainly north and east of the
track over the next 24 hours...with maximum amounts of up to 15
inches possible in the higher terrain of Cuba. General 3 to 5 inch
amounts will possible over the Florida Keys.
Some coastal flooding is possible on the southern coast of western
Cuba.

Repeating the 5 PM EDT position...20.2 N... 84.2 W. Movement
toward...north near 8 mph. Maximum sustained winds... 40 mph.
Minimum central pressure...1001 mb.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 8 PM EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 11 PM
EDT.

Forecaster Avila/Knabb

[Brent]

Tropical Storm Arlene Discussion Number 6

Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on June 09, 2005

satellite images indicate that Arlene has not become any better
organized and in fact...the cyclone looks weaker than earlier this
morning. Wind shear has been affecting the system and the
circulation center has become separated from the convection. It is
assumed that there are tropical storm force winds within the
convective bands to the north and east of the center...so initial
intensity is kept at 35 knots. An Air Force plane is currently
investigating Arlene. There is a possibility of strengthening when
the shear relaxes as the upper-trough weakens in 24 hours or so.
This is consistent with the SHIPS model that shows a decrease in
the shear within the 24 to 36 hour period. Therefore...the official
forecast calls for some modest strengthening.

Arlene has been moving a little bit slower than anticipated and the
best estimate of the initial motion is 350 degrees at about 6
knots. The ridge over the western Atlantic is forecast to
build...and that pattern should force Arlene on a north-
northwesterly track with an increase in forward speed. While the
official forecast follows this scenario...it is not as fast as most
of the dynamical guidance.

In summary...Arlene is expected to cross or pass very near the
western tip of Cuba tonight or early Friday. It then will be moving
over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Friday and Saturday where it
could strengthen a little...before reaching the northern Gulf
Coast.

Forecaster Avila/Knabb

Forecast positions and Max winds

initial 09/2100z 20.2n 84.2w 35 kt
12hr VT 10/0600z 21.5n 84.8w 35 kt
24hr VT 10/1800z 24.0n 86.0w 45 kt
36hr VT 11/0600z 26.5n 87.3w 50 kt
48hr VT 11/1800z 29.5n 88.5w 50 kt
72hr VT 12/1800z 34.5n 87.5w 25 kt...inland dissipating
96hr VT 13/1800z 40.0n 83.5w 20 kt...remnant low
120hr VT 14/1800z...dissipated

[cycloneye]

[jax]

Yikes That right over Pecan Mississippi !!!
and i was hoping for a bumper crop this year...

[Agua]

Oh man. Pecans. These things are especially bad for you. Pines and pecans are the most brittle trees in the region.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I'm going to stick my head out in say that a new LLC has formed under that area of convection...We will see.

It is starting to ball(Get a classic look to it)

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... IR4/20.jpg

[dhweather]

Oh man. Pecans. These things are especially bad for you. Pines and pecans are the most brittle trees in the region.

But pecans are bonafide gifts from God!