I am starting to doubt a Cuba strike...

Anonymous · #1 Postby **Anonymous** » Thu Jun 09, 2005 3:21 pm

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I think that Arlene has a few new factors....

A. It is beginning to fan out on the western side. IMO, the shear is decreasing and Arlene should start to get better organized. I would not be surprise to see this start to gain strength a little bit more steadily. Of course, convection needs to fire near the center first.

B. It's already Southwest of the Isle of Youth...so the only real way this can hit Cuba is if this moves DUE NORTH and impacts extreme western Cuba.

I think Arlene will be nearly stationary at 5pm, and that it is feeling the ridge, and this thing is going to Louisiana or Mississippi. But that is my take.

#2 Postby **dhweather** » Thu Jun 09, 2005 3:23 pm

You may be onto something Mike - hjow about a new pretty video?

#3 Postby **LSU2001** » Thu Jun 09, 2005 3:24 pm

Yeah new video :notworthy:

dwg71 · #4 Postby **dwg71** » Thu Jun 09, 2005 3:26 pm

We don't know where the center is. IMO Cuba is still in play. I do disagree with the notion that it is going to get better organized, I just don't see it. And LA is well west of the consensus for "landfall".

TS Zack · #5 Postby **TS Zack** » Thu Jun 09, 2005 3:27 pm

We have been talking about this is Teamspeak all day. A circulation came out moving West. Now if that is the true center then it has stalled.

It may stall and wait for the Ridge to build into place. A stronger ridge is more likely because of a stronger Trough.

The NHC new forecasts will not change at all.

Lindaloo · #6 Postby **Lindaloo** » Thu Jun 09, 2005 3:27 pm

dwg71 wrote:We don't know where the center is. IMO Cuba is still in play. I do disagree with the notion that it is going to get better organized, I just don't see it. And LA is well west of the consensus for "landfall".

And you base this on?

#7 Postby **ncweatherwizard** » Thu Jun 09, 2005 3:27 pm

Well, if the storm does like UKMET suggests, then it's possible, but keep in mind that Cuba extends to like 84.9W or 85W, and the storm is at about 84.3W---maybe. So it'll be close...we'll see.

#8 Postby **LSU2001** » Thu Jun 09, 2005 3:27 pm

La is still in the cone and we are a few days out. GFDL has it on the La Ms. border.
Tim

dwg71 · #9 Postby **dwg71** » Thu Jun 09, 2005 3:28 pm

I base it on this:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

#10 Postby **Wpwxguy** » Thu Jun 09, 2005 3:28 pm

Mike, I said the same thing earlier that I did not think it would go over Cuba. I felt it would go thru the Yucatan channel. The models in my opinion still have a right bias, like last year. How far west will she come is yet to be seen. I did say yesterday and still believe somewhere between the Pearl River(LA/MS) and Biloxi, MS. But Hey, I'm no expert. Just my personal observation of whats going on. We say it every season and it still holds true, we cannot say with a great deal of certainty where a system will go because we do not know exactly how strong the Bermuda High will be. IMO

Lindaloo · #11 Postby **Lindaloo** » Thu Jun 09, 2005 3:30 pm

dwg71 wrote:I base it on this:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Which means what.

Normandy · #12 Postby **Normandy** » Thu Jun 09, 2005 3:32 pm

I think that new little spin we saw this morning was the real center, and the convection moving northeast is being sheared away from the center or something of the sorts.

Question...what is the lower level windflow around arlene (because is she does not fire convection, then the LLC should follow the lower level windflow correct?)

dwg71 · #13 Postby **dwg71** » Thu Jun 09, 2005 3:34 pm

Which means the dry air to the west will inhibit any substantial wrap around of the BROAD LLC and the ridge in the Atlantic is also putting a pinch on the system. I dont think it will develop much further. If the High in the gulf does not retreat it will force Arlene N to NNE. Just my opinion, I'd like to hear yours.

Lindaloo · #14 Postby **Lindaloo** » Thu Jun 09, 2005 3:35 pm

I am but a novice. I just like to hear reasons why when someone says it will do this or do that. But anyway, thanks for your input.

Derek Ortt · #15 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Thu Jun 09, 2005 3:37 pm

the center is near the convective blow up. It is moving north and has been all day

dwg71 · #16 Postby **dwg71** » Thu Jun 09, 2005 3:38 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:the center is near the convective blow up. It is moving north and has been all day

Thanks DO, Cooba is going to be crossed by the LLC.

Normandy · #17 Postby **Normandy** » Thu Jun 09, 2005 3:39 pm

So I assume you think that naked LLC swirling will dissipate?

PTrackerLA · #18 Postby **PTrackerLA** » Thu Jun 09, 2005 3:42 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:the center is near the convective blow up. It is moving north and has been all day

So the well displaced LLC that has been there ALL day is just an offshoot? Just seems like the large low level circulation is too developed to be discounted. Regardless Arlene is VERY disorganized and the peninsula is in for a dousing.

Normandy · #19 Postby **Normandy** » Thu Jun 09, 2005 3:44 pm

The NHC pinpointed the center at 20.2 N 84.2 .... which if my eyes are right thats where the broad exposed LLC is.

#20 Postby **skysummit** » Thu Jun 09, 2005 3:46 pm

I think a new center will form under the convection to the NE of the original center, but what do I know? :roll:

I am starting to doubt a Cuba strike...

I am starting to doubt a Cuba strike...

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