Arlene 1 pm CDT Advisory 29.58 in.

[jax]

Tropical Storm Arlene Intermediate Advisory Number 5a


Statement as of 2:00 PM EDT on June 09, 2005



...Arlene remains poorly organized...squalls already approaching the
Isle of Youth and western Cuba...

a Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the Dry Tortugas.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the Cayman Islands
and for western Cuba from Pinar del Rio to the city of Havana and
Havana provinces...including the Isle of Youth.

Interests elsewhere in the northwestern Caribbean and the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico should closely monitor the progress of
this system.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 2 PM EDT...1800z...the poorly-defined center of Tropical Storm
Arlene was estimated near latitude 19.8 north...longitude 84.2 west
or about 150 miles... 245 km...south-southeast of the western tip of
Cuba.

Arlene has been moving toward the north near 8 mph ...13 km/hr. This
general motion is expected to continue with a gradual increase in
forward speed during the next 24 hours...bringing the center near
or over western Cuba tonight or early Friday. However most of the
weather will arrive well in advance of the center.

Data from recently installed NOAA buoy...number 42056...near the
center of Arlene indicate that the intensity of the cyclone has
changed little...and maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph...
65 km/hr...with higher gusts. However...some strengthening is
possible during the next 24 hours. An Air Force plane will check
Arlene later today.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 150 miles...240 km
to the north and east of the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb...29.59 inches.

Heavy rainfall...accompanied by squalls...is spreading across the
Cayman Islands...as well as central and western Cuba and into the
southern Florida Keys. Total rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches
are possible in these areas in association with Arlene....mainly to
the north and east of the center.

Repeating the 2 PM EDT position...19.8 N... 84.2 W. Movement
toward...north near 8 mph. Maximum sustained winds... 40 mph.
Minimum central pressure...1002 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
5 PM EDT.

Forecaster Avila/Kna

[x-y-no]

Maybe I'm just goofy again, but it seems to me that position is about half a degree too far north.

Jan

[Brent]

Maybe I'm just goofy again, but it seems to me that position is about half a degree too far north.

Jan

I think they are just throwing darts at the satellite imagery now and saying "That's the center"

[dhweather]

Maybe I'm just goofy again, but it seems to me that position is about half a degree too far north.

Jan

I think they are just throwing darts at the satellite imagery now and saying "That's the center"

They're probably using A98E for the center.