Arlene moving west now?!?!?!?

DoctorHurricane2003 · #21 Postby **DoctorHurricane2003** » Thu Jun 09, 2005 12:06 pm

It appears to be a smaller vorticity moving around the broader circulation, giving it the appearance of heading WSW when in all actuality it is moving NNW.

lilbump3000 · #22 Postby **lilbump3000** » Thu Jun 09, 2005 12:07 pm

Forget smaller vorticities, you can clearly see that the main center has moved to the west a bit.

PTrackerLA · #23 Postby **PTrackerLA** » Thu Jun 09, 2005 12:08 pm

Agreed, could be temporary but I just don't see N-NNW right now.

#24 Postby **Air Force Met** » Thu Jun 09, 2005 12:09 pm

There is certainly a vortex that has popped out and is moving west...maybe even a little SW, You can see it on the GHCC site better than the SSD site.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

Do a 15 frame loop on 100%, zoomed in on high and you will see the vortex. It's probably the center and it's rotating around in a larger circulation. The overall circulation appears to be slowing down but still moving north. The vortex will likely rotate around and dissipate, or be absorbed into the overall circulation.

Chances are it is the primary center of circulation right now...but due to the fact the system has a weak, broad center, I doubt it will stay that way.

Droop12 · #25 Postby **Droop12** » Thu Jun 09, 2005 12:09 pm

DoctorHurricane, Are you going to put out your thoughts at all today? I always enjoy reading what you have to say.

#26 Postby **Wpwxguy** » Thu Jun 09, 2005 12:09 pm

Everything in the Gulf right now is moving west. Huh! Had not looked at that yet. Did you see those clouds go poof off the Texas coast when they hit the Gulf? Like they were pushed back inland. Thinking would lead you to believe a more westerly component then, but not west. Your right though if the ridge is building and I'm not sure, then it would steer her more NW. IMO Any of you pros have any thoughts?

#27 Postby **Air Force Met** » Thu Jun 09, 2005 12:10 pm

jax wrote:they need to move the goes floater....

Use the GHCC site and you will be able to zoom wherever you want.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/

DoctorHurricane2003 · #28 Postby **DoctorHurricane2003** » Thu Jun 09, 2005 12:12 pm

Exactly AFM.

Yes Droop I will do it later tonight after the issuance of the 7 PM CDT advisory.

CYCLONE MIKE · #29 Postby **CYCLONE MIKE** » Thu Jun 09, 2005 12:15 pm

Air Force Met, I see your on, what do you think about an eventual more westerly componet to the direction of Arlene? Could the westerly movement of the clouds in the northern gulf be a prelude of things to come with the high building in?

#30 Postby **Air Force Met** » Thu Jun 09, 2005 12:20 pm

DoctorHurricane2003 wrote:Exactly AFM.

Yes Droop I will do it later tonight after the issuance of the 7 PM CDT advisory.

It happens all the time in the weak..open systems. You get a LLC embedded in a larger circulation...and it hangs around...then gets spit out. As you know (writing for the benefit of others)...the reason it is moving NW...then W...then SW is because the old LLC is now rotating around the larger circulation. If it hangs together is will eventually be moving S...but it will probably dissipate.

This sort of dissipation of the old LLC happens all the time in these system that have a broad circulation. The overall system is still moving N...although it is slowing I think due to the fact it is starting to bump up against the ridge to the north.

#31 Postby **Wpwxguy** » Thu Jun 09, 2005 12:22 pm

We appreciate your thoughts AFM. Thanks

#32 Postby **Air Force Met** » Thu Jun 09, 2005 12:26 pm

CYCLONE MIKE wrote:Air Force Met, I see your on, what do you think about an eventual more westerly componet to the direction of Arlene? Could the westerly movement of the clouds in the northern gulf be a prelude of things to come with the high building in?

The lower level clouds just show where the sfc ridge is. The ridge is forecast to be stronger off the Atlantic coast, not over the northern GOM. The lower/mid level heights (850-500) will actually be falling over the norther GOM during the next 24-36 hours. This will allow Arlene to slide around the periphery of the Atlantic High.

Droop12 · #33 Postby **Droop12** » Thu Jun 09, 2005 12:32 pm

Well since this seems to be the hot thread to ask questions, AirForce Met, What are your thoughts on intensity? I believe by the time she's in the gulf and has more room to work with she may slowly get her act together and thats what all the models seem to show. What do you think?

#34 Postby **Air Force Met** » Thu Jun 09, 2005 12:53 pm

Droop12 wrote:Well since this seems to be the hot thread to ask questions, AirForce Met, What are your thoughts on intensity? I believe by the time she's in the gulf and has more room to work with she may slowly get her act together and thats what all the models seem to show. What do you think?

I went for a 60-65 mph tropical storm, with the strengthening occuring in the last 12-18 before landfall...and I'll stick with that. I think the shear is still going to be a factor and the GOM heat content is still fairly low. Th elonger it takes the core to get together, the more problems she will have getting stronger later. The LLC rotaing out of the borad circulation right now means this process will take even longer. Unlessyou get sustained convection around the center, the pressure will have a hard time dropping more than another couple of millibars. It may even rise some.

Looking at the latest Vis loop...it looks like a new LLC is trying to get wrapped up near the latest burst of convection. There is some twisting going on there. Probably will be the new center in another couple of hours.

#35 Postby **dhweather** » Thu Jun 09, 2005 12:56 pm

jax wrote:they need to move the goes floater....

Amen to that!

TexasStooge · #36 Postby **TexasStooge** » Thu Jun 09, 2005 12:57 pm

Judging from the water vapor loop, it looked like it was heading more of an north-eastern direction.

Rainband · #37 Postby **Rainband** » Thu Jun 09, 2005 1:01 pm

Air Force Met wrote:
Droop12 wrote:Well since this seems to be the hot thread to ask questions, AirForce Met, What are your thoughts on intensity? I believe by the time she's in the gulf and has more room to work with she may slowly get her act together and thats what all the models seem to show. What do you think?

I went for a 60-65 mph tropical storm, with the strengthening occuring in the last 12-18 before landfall...and I'll stick with that. I think the shear is still going to be a factor and the GOM heat content is still fairly low. Th elonger it takes the core to get together, the more problems she will have getting stronger later. The LLC rotaing out of the borad circulation right now means this process will take even longer. Unlessyou get sustained convection around the center, the pressure will have a hard time dropping more than another couple of millibars. It may even rise some.

Looking at the latest Vis loop...it looks like a new LLC is trying to get wrapped up near the latest burst of convection. There is some twisting going on there. Probably will be the new center in another couple of hours.

will be have a big impact on the track? Or is the high going to build westward and there by verfiy the models??

#38 Postby **Air Force Met** » Thu Jun 09, 2005 1:04 pm

TexasStooge wrote:Judging from the water vapor loop, it looked like it was heading more of an north-eastern direction.

Water Vapor imagery doesn't show what is happening in the lower levels, just the mid-upper levels....so it's not a good indicator of movement in weaker systems. You need to look at the vis in the day...and shortwave IR at night.

#39 Postby **Air Force Met** » Thu Jun 09, 2005 1:07 pm

Rainband wrote:

will be have a big impact on the track? Or is the high going to build westward and there by verfiy the models??[/quote]

No...because the overall circulation is still moving in the same direction, there is no change in the track.

Rainband · #40 Postby **Rainband** » Thu Jun 09, 2005 1:09 pm

Thanks for you quick reply

Arlene moving west now?!?!?!?

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