Chance of a new relocated center?

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

The broad circulation still exists, though a tight swirl doesn't. The mass of convection is displaced to the east and northeast of what *was* the center of circulation. As we have seen many times in years past, tropical storms tend to relocate their centers while they are trying to get their act together. Especially when movement is slow, and most especially ANYTHING moving at 6kts or less in the Gulf, remains a bit unpredicatble. What would be the updated path if the center were to relocate under the broad area of convection?
Personally, I think the center will relocate, causing a slight shift to the east of the currently predicted path.
Going on a limb here, based on what I think will happen with a shift, I would say a strong tropical storm with winds at 55kts sustained with gusts to 70kts going into within 20 miles of Walton Beach, FL around 10:30 a.m. Sunday morning.

[slowjoe]

I like where your going with that. If the dry air does notimpact her....I say a more east track and a convection wrap around means for some interesting weather in North florida.

YEAH

[DoctorHurricane2003]

This is something I've been thinking about. It's possible that one of these smaller vorticities could get firmly established under the thunderstorm complex and become a new center, but that may not even occur until once Arlene gets in the Gulf. With a system so weak and with a broad circulation such as this, though, it is highly possible.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Today they may have a hard time finding the closed circulation center, and in fact, a few of their plots may indicate multiple vortices. They'll find some strong winds in the stormy northeast quadrant though, maintaining or slightly increasing the storm intensity. The next recon will be very interesting though. I bet they relocate the center for sure...if that doesn't happen overnight with a really good sat image that clearly shows the *new* center when the convection begins to visibly be wrapping around it instead of hiding it. Like last night, I bet we see another new convective burst develop south of the storm and become absorbed into the flow.