TS Watches and Warnings?

[Fla Panhandle]

I'm wondering when watches and warnings might be put up for the area's to be in the path of TS Arlene?

[Brent]

Late Tonight or Tomorrow Morning for watches at the latest.

[FritzPaul]

Watches: 36 hrs. out

Warnings: 24 hrs. out

[EmeraldCoast1]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Based on TPC official forecast, I would predict that roughly from New Orleans to Panama City will be under a TS WATCH beginning with the 0800 advisory tomorrow morning.

That would then put some portion of the N. GOM coast under a TS WARNING around the 1700 advisory tomorrow afternoon.

Afterall, the official forecast calls for the center of the storm to reach land at appx. 1800 Saturday.

Of course, this is all based on information right at this moment, we know TPC is always fast on their fwd. speed predictions.

[Droop12]

I was thinking later today at 5pm they might put up watches like you said roughly from NO to Panama City. Theres still a bit of timing issues but thats my gut feeling. I wonder once tropical storm warnings get posted, would they go ahead and put up hurricane watches? Maybe Im getting ahead of myself.

[Brent]

I was thinking later today at 5pm they might put up watches like you said roughly from NO to Panama City. Theres still a bit of timing issues but thats my gut feeling. I wonder once tropical storm warnings get posted, would they go ahead and put up hurricane watches? Maybe Im getting ahead of myself.

They might but only if it's around 60-65 mph and is still strengthening.

I'm thinking 11pm tonight a watch will go up from somewhere around Grand Isle or the Mouth of the Missississippi to around Panama City or Apalachicola, and then at 11am tomorrow warnings in that same area(maybe not the whole area though). If a Hurricane Watch were to be required, it would probably be for a small area right where the center is expected to make landfall and about 30-40 miles to the east.

[Droop12]

It was just a thought, the NHC put up Hurricanes watches for Bonnie last year. We all know Bonnie wasnt to impressive.

[EmeraldCoast1]

It was just a thought, the NHC put up Hurricanes watches for Bonnie last year. We all know Bonnie wasnt to impressive.

You're right. Just because a storm is not predicted to become a cane doesn't mean that it is not POSSIBLE for some hurricane force winds to be present. In fact all of the watch and warning definintions from TPC include the word, possible.

[Brent]

It was just a thought, the NHC put up Hurricanes watches for Bonnie last year. We all know Bonnie wasnt to impressive.

True... but they were also forecasting it to get close to hurricane strength(70 mph) at that time.

[dhweather]

Watches: 36 hrs. out

Warnings: 24 hrs. out

Which conflicts the Louisiana evac plan.

[EmeraldCoast1]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Based on TPC official forecast, I would predict that roughly from New Orleans to Panama City will be under a TS WATCH beginning with the 0800 advisory tomorrow morning.

That would then put some portion of the N. GOM coast under a TS WARNING around the 1700 advisory tomorrow afternoon.

Afterall, the official forecast calls for the center of the storm to reach land at appx. 1800 Saturday.

Of course, this is all based on information right at this moment, we know TPC is always fast on their fwd. speed predictions.

I was way off.