My thoughts on Arlene: Florida Panhandle

[MGC]

Despite that the 06Z models are still calling for a SE Louisiana, I'm going against the grain and thinking Arlene will impact near Pensacola Florida. I don't think the Atlantic ridge will build as the models forecast. It is still early June and the Bermuda ridge is not well established. Arlene is also being pushed east by a large ridge over Old Mexico. The ridge over Mexico is well established and will win the steering battle. Water vapor imagery appears to indicate that a weak ULL is forming over the Yucatan, so upper level conditions are marginal. Arlene will remain a sheared TS battling NW shear in the GOM due to the ridge in the west. Arlene remains a poorly organized system this morning. Shear is preventing convection from wrapping the center.....MGC

[Dean4Storms]

I agree MGC, looks like a FL Panhandle landfall to me as well, just don't see the ridge nosing that far into the eastern GOM.

[Stormcenter]

I say SE Texas.

[dwg71]

I say SE Texas.

I say SE Asia, it has about the same chance.

[PTrackerLA]

I say SE Texas.

We can only wish.