I was just taking a look at the zoomed visible view at http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html
(select "Animation" and click on the center of the storm on the image)
In the last three frames (14:15, 14:32 and 14:40 utc) there's a little, tiny but very distinct circulation center popping out. This may not be the actual center, though, since it appears to track SSW in the last frame. Rather, it may be a little vortex embedded in the larger circulation.
Jan
Curious tiny circulation feature
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x-y-no
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Curious tiny circulation feature
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GalvestonDuck
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x-y-no
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GalvestonDuck wrote:Think I see what you mean. Is it directly west of Grand Cayman (not sure how many miles exactly, but if you draw a straight line west from GC, it's there)?
Yes. Looks like a very nicely defined circulation center, but very small, and tracking SSW. Obviously, that's not the overall motion of the storm, which is why I found it odd.
Jan
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PTrackerLA
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It might be a vorticie (sp?) rotating around a broader LLC. I have noticed that the LLC appears to be moving more NW this morning while convection continues to be well displaced to the east of the center. Looks like the center of Arlene might graze the Yucatan however if all things are held constant they wouldn't be getting any weather.
Last edited by PTrackerLA on Thu Jun 09, 2005 10:11 am, edited 1 time in total.
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There's one more frame in the animation now, which accounts for the discrepancy.
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lilbump3000
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x-y-no
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PTrackerLA wrote:It might be a vorticie (sp?) rotating around a broader LLC. I have noticed that the LLC appears to be moving more NW this morning while convection continues to be well displaced to the east of the center. Looks like the center of Arlene might graze the Yucatan however if all things are held constant they wouldn't be getting any weather.
Yeah ... I'm having a very hard time figuring out where the real center is and which way it's tracking, and this little vortex isn't helping.
I think you're right that the motion now a bit west of north, but I don't think it's going to track all the way over to the Yucatan. More like crossing the very western tip of Cuba, maybe.
Jan
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
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PTrackerLA
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If that is the center then this storm is discoupling. Which is bad for tropical cyclone formation. I'm not sure but I think that there is a rather large cirulation for the main storm.
I dont know it just seems that that center is at the center of all the cyclonic turning...and plus this system has never been truly organized anyway.
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tracyswfla
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PTrackerLA wrote:Arlene might have some tricks up her sleave. The forecast almost seems to be too clear cut to be true. If she hit the Yucatan all bets are off.
I felt the same way... I think that this is not a cut and dry storm at all... I think that we are in for a roller coater ride with Arlene...
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Brent
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x-y-no wrote:Well ... now I don't know what to say ... this looks more and more like the real circulation center. If that's the case, the storm isn't moving much right now.
Can't wait for recon to get in there ... I want some "up close and personal" data.
Jan
Did Recon go in overnight or was the yesterday afternoon flight the last one?
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#neversummer
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x-y-no
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Brent wrote:x-y-no wrote:Well ... now I don't know what to say ... this looks more and more like the real circulation center. If that's the case, the storm isn't moving much right now.
Can't wait for recon to get in there ... I want some "up close and personal" data.
Jan
Did Recon go in overnight or was the yesterday afternoon flight the last one?
Just the one flight yesterday. They should have already taken off on today's flight 1, but I haven't seen a recco message yet.
Jan
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PTrackerLA
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