question about high pressure and models

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LSU2001
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question about high pressure and models

#1 Postby LSU2001 » Thu Jun 09, 2005 8:59 am

I know it is a new year and a new season but My question is Last year did the models underforcast the high and seem to have a right bias. It seems that the forcast would start out way east, swing west and then get clustered somwhere in the middle about 1-2 days out.
Please comment!
Tim
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AussieMark
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#2 Postby AussieMark » Thu Jun 09, 2005 9:00 am

from memory the GFS was always pushing storms north. From memory it had Frances as a North Carolina hit.
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#3 Postby x-y-no » Thu Jun 09, 2005 9:21 am

Yes, last year several models, especially the GFS, had a tendency to break down a ridge north of strong storms too quickly, resulting in northward track errors.

There have been some adjustments to the models over the winter, so it'll be interesting to see if this problem has been alleviated.

Jan
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#4 Postby Brent » Thu Jun 09, 2005 9:23 am

Yep... especially Ivan.

Remember?

Early forecasts took it over Barbados, St. Lucia, Hispanola and then into the Bahamas, then shifted to over Jamaica, Western Cuba, into the Big Bend of Florida and it kept shifting west... and kept shifting west.
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