Tropical Storm Arlene Special Advisory

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Tropical Storm Arlene Special Advisory Number 4


Statement as of 8:00 am EDT on June 09, 2005


...Ship report indicates Tropical Depression One has become Tropical
Storm Arlene...the first tropical storm of the 2005 season...

at 8 am EDT...1200 UTC...the government of Cuba has extended the
Tropical Storm Warning eastward to include the city of Havana and
Havana province. A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for
western Cuba from Pinar del Rio to Havana province...including the
Isle of Youth.

Interests elsewhere in the northwestern Caribbean and the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico should closely monitor the progress of
this system.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 8 am EDT...1200z...the center of Tropical Storm Arlene was
located near latitude 19.1 north...longitude 84.0 west or about
185 miles... 295 km...west of Grand Cayman and about 190 miles...
305 km...south-southeast of the western tip of Cuba.

Arlene is moving toward the north near 8 mph...13 km/hr...and this
general motion is expected to continue with an additional increase
in forward speed during the next 24 hours. This motion could bring
the center near western Cuba tonight.

A report from a ship between the center of Arlene and the Cayman
Islands indicates maximum sustained winds are have increased to
near 40 mph... 65 km/hr...with higher gusts. Some additional slow
strengthening is possible during the next 24 hours.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
...240 km mainly to the northeast of the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb...29.59 inches.

Heavy rainfall...accompanied by squalls...is spreading across the
Cayman Islands...as well as central and western Cuba. Total
rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches are possible in these areas in
association with Arlene.

Moisture flowing from the southwest into Arlene is producing
very heavy rains over portions of Central America...particularly
Nicaragua and Honduras. These rains could cause life-threatening
flash floods and mud slides.

Repeating the 8 am EDT position...19.1 N... 84.0 W. Movement
toward...north near 8 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 40 mph. Minimum central pressure...1002 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
11 am EDT.

Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

| Discussion on Tropical Storm Arlene

Statement as of 8:00 am EDT on June 09, 2005



ship 3ffl8 reported 40 kt winds while located about 130 N mi
east-northeast of the center of Tropical Depression One. A quality
control check by the ocean prediciton center suggested this report
was about 5 kt too high...but still of tropical-storm force. Based
on this a special advisory is being issued to upgrade Tropical
Depression One to Tropical Storm Arlene.
The ship report requires a 130 N mi wind radius in the northeastern
quadrant...which is carried through the forecast period. The
expanded wind radius requires the Tropical Storm Warning in Cuba to
be extended eastward. There are no other changes to the previous
advisory.
Forecaster Beven


forecast positions and Max winds

initial 09/1200z 19.1n 84.0w 35 kt
12hr VT 09/1800z 20.0n 84.2w 35 kt
24hr VT 10/0600z 22.2n 84.8w 40 kt
36hr VT 10/1800z 24.7n 85.8w 45 kt
48hr VT 11/0600z 27.2n 87.0w 50 kt
72hr VT 12/0600z 31.5n 88.5w 40 kt...inland
96hr VT 13/0600z 36.5n 87.0w 25 kt...inland dissipating
120hr VT 14/0600z...dissipated

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Strike probability grafic.