Check this water vapor, lots of dry air on western sector of system
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/WV/20.jpg
one negative influence
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Dave C
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one negative influence
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Dry Air
I agree with you totally. I don't think anyone in herewants to pour cold water on the first Tropical Storm of the season though.
I also am skepticall about this bermuda high pressure system steering the storm west.
I also am skepticall about this bermuda high pressure system steering the storm west.
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weatherwindow
- Category 4
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- Location: key west/ft lauderdale
no disrespect intended to our first TS....but it is an amorphous mess! did you notice that the ship report that resulted in the upgrede to TS was 130mi from the center...sort of quasi-subtropical? i would not be surprised ito see the center relocate to the east prior to reaching cuba. any thoughts?
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
Center Location
At this point the 'center' of the system will pass through the straight and the western tip of cuba could still see blue skies as all the convection is soooo far right.
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Stratusxpeye
- Category 2
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Dave,
That isn't uncommon for weaker June systems at all. And while it will inhibit the overall development of Arlene into a mature type of system often seen in August, September and early October, it's mostly only going to affect the western side. That means anyone to the E or NE of eventual landfall will see all the nasty weather concentrated over them. I think there are still a couple of vortexes. Visible may confirm an additional LLC or two.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
slowjoe,
I think the influence is already starting on the system. Now it could be the coming change in the sat from IR-Vis but it appears the bend might be beginning. Also take a look at the tropical water vapor and you can see an embedded high kind of nosing along toward the SW out in the Western Atlantic. I think that's providing (or will provide) some of that pressure. Animate this:
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurrwv.html
Steve
That isn't uncommon for weaker June systems at all. And while it will inhibit the overall development of Arlene into a mature type of system often seen in August, September and early October, it's mostly only going to affect the western side. That means anyone to the E or NE of eventual landfall will see all the nasty weather concentrated over them. I think there are still a couple of vortexes. Visible may confirm an additional LLC or two.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
slowjoe,
I think the influence is already starting on the system. Now it could be the coming change in the sat from IR-Vis but it appears the bend might be beginning. Also take a look at the tropical water vapor and you can see an embedded high kind of nosing along toward the SW out in the Western Atlantic. I think that's providing (or will provide) some of that pressure. Animate this:
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurrwv.html
Steve
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