Arlene (01L) Recon Observations

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
senorpepr
Military Met/Moderator
Military Met/Moderator
Posts: 12542
Age: 43
Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
Location: Mackenbach, Germany
Contact:
Contact senorpepr

#141 Postby senorpepr » Thu Jun 09, 2005 3:17 am

Thunder~n~Lightning wrote:Thanks for the fast reply senorpepr :wink:


No problem... I'm up and monitoring this flight and will be posting decoded observations as they come in...
0 likes   
Top
Matt-hurricanewatcher

#142 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Jun 09, 2005 3:19 am

When is the next vort message?
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
mobilebay
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1853
Age: 51
Joined: Wed Aug 18, 2004 1:22 am
Location: Mobile, Alabama

#143 Postby mobilebay » Thu Jun 09, 2005 3:19 am

senorpepr wrote:
Thunder~n~Lightning wrote:Thanks for the fast reply senorpepr :wink:


No problem... I'm up and monitoring this flight and will be posting decoded observations as they come in...

Pepr, I got a feeling we will not receive the Vortex message before the Advisory comes out. That has been my experience. We shall see.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
senorpepr
Military Met/Moderator
Military Met/Moderator
Posts: 12542
Age: 43
Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
Location: Mackenbach, Germany
Contact:
Contact senorpepr

#144 Postby senorpepr » Thu Jun 09, 2005 3:21 am

It'll be a toss up. I'd expect a vortex within the next half hour. Then again, the advisory should be out before then...
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
senorpepr
Military Met/Moderator
Military Met/Moderator
Posts: 12542
Age: 43
Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
Location: Mackenbach, Germany
Contact:
Contact senorpepr

#145 Postby senorpepr » Thu Jun 09, 2005 3:43 am

senorpepr wrote:It'll be a toss up. I'd expect a vortex within the next half hour. Then again, the advisory should be out before then...


Well... new advisory is out. 30kt and 1002mb.
0 likes   
Top
Matt-hurricanewatcher

#146 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Jun 09, 2005 3:45 am

1002 millibars thats getting pretty low for a depression.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
senorpepr
Military Met/Moderator
Military Met/Moderator
Posts: 12542
Age: 43
Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
Location: Mackenbach, Germany
Contact:
Contact senorpepr

#147 Postby senorpepr » Thu Jun 09, 2005 3:52 am

[VORTEX | ONE (01L) Mission II, OB #11] Time: 828Z; Lat: 18.5°N; Long: 83.9°W; Central Pressure: 1002 mb; Eye Character: N/A; Eye Shape: FALSE; Eye Diameter mi; Max Flt Wnd: 39 mph (SE quad); Est Sfc Winds (using 80% reduction): 31 mph; Remarks: Sea level pressure extrap from 1500ft



VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 09/08:28:10Z
B. 18 deg 29 min N
083 deg 55 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. NA kt
E. 000 deg 000 nm
F. 311 deg 010 kt
G. 218 deg 041 nm
H. EXTRAP 1002 mb
I. 23 C/ 363 m
J. 24 C/ 362 m
K. 23 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134 / 1
O. 0.02 / 10 nm
P. AF304 0201A CYCLONE OB 11
MAX FL WIND 34 KT SE QUAD 06:57:30 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.
0 likes   
Top
Matt-hurricanewatcher

#148 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Jun 09, 2005 4:12 am

Is the core any warmer?
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
senorpepr
Military Met/Moderator
Military Met/Moderator
Posts: 12542
Age: 43
Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
Location: Mackenbach, Germany
Contact:
Contact senorpepr

#149 Postby senorpepr » Thu Jun 09, 2005 4:13 am

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Is the core any warmer?


Not really
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
senorpepr
Military Met/Moderator
Military Met/Moderator
Posts: 12542
Age: 43
Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
Location: Mackenbach, Germany
Contact:
Contact senorpepr

#150 Postby senorpepr » Thu Jun 09, 2005 4:25 am

[RECCO | ONE (01L) Mission II, OB #12] Time: 917Z; Lat: 20.2°N; Long: 82.1°W; Turbulence: Lgt Ocnl Mdt; Flt Condition: In/Out of clouds; Flt Level: 1181ft; Flt Winds: SE (120°) @ 35 mph; Temp: 72°F; Dewpoint: 72°F; Weather: Rainshowers; Sfc Winds: N/A; Remarks: Sea Surface Pressure: 1007mb



97779 09174 50202 82118 03600 12030 22228 /0007
RMK AF304 0201A CYCLONE OB 12
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
senorpepr
Military Met/Moderator
Military Met/Moderator
Posts: 12542
Age: 43
Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
Location: Mackenbach, Germany
Contact:
Contact senorpepr

#151 Postby senorpepr » Thu Jun 09, 2005 4:25 am

Code: Select all

SUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
           INBOUND
 LAT   LON   jHHH  TTDD ddfff
01172 10851 10005 12422 99005
02174 20850 20005 22423 99005
03175 30848 30004 32423 99005
04177 40846 40004 42423 99005
05179 50844 50003 52323 99005
06181 60842 60003 62423 99005
07183 70840 70002 72423 99005
MF181 M0842 MF010
OBS 01 AT 07:54:50Z
OBS 07 AT 08:23:20Z
OBS 01 SFC WND /////
          OUTBOUND
 LAT   LON   jHHH  TTDD ddfff
01187 10837 10002 12323 99005
02189 20836 20003 22323 13010
03190 30834 30003 32323 12015
04192 40832 40003 42222 99005
05194 50830 50004 52020 12016
06196 60828 60005 61919 14022
07197 70826 70005 72222 12032
08199 80824 80005 82222 12028
09201 90822 90006 92222 12032
MF195 M0828 MF038
OBS 01 AT 08:33:00Z
OBS 09 AT 09:12:40Z
OBS 09 SFC WND /////
AF304 0201A CYCLONE      OB 13
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
mobilebay
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1853
Age: 51
Joined: Wed Aug 18, 2004 1:22 am
Location: Mobile, Alabama

#152 Postby mobilebay » Thu Jun 09, 2005 4:27 am

senorpepr wrote:

Code: Select all

SUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
           INBOUND
 LAT   LON   jHHH  TTDD ddfff
01172 10851 10005 12422 99005
02174 20850 20005 22423 99005
03175 30848 30004 32423 99005
04177 40846 40004 42423 99005
05179 50844 50003 52323 99005
06181 60842 60003 62423 99005
07183 70840 70002 72423 99005
MF181 M0842 MF010
OBS 01 AT 07:54:50Z
OBS 07 AT 08:23:20Z
OBS 01 SFC WND /////
          OUTBOUND


 LAT   LON   jHHH  TTDD ddfff
01187 10837 10002 12323 99005
02189 20836 20003 22323 13010
03190 30834 30003 32323 12015
04192 40832 40003 42222 99005
05194 50830 50004 52020 12016
06196 60828 60005 61919 14022
07197 70826 70005 72222 12032
08199 80824 80005 82222 12028
09201 90822 90006 92222 12032
MF195 M0828 MF038
OBS 01 AT 08:33:00Z
OBS 09 AT 09:12:40Z
OBS 09 SFC WND /////
AF304 0201A CYCLONE      OB 13

Hey, we did get a 38 Knot wind on the outbound. We are getting close to Arlene.
0 likes   
Top
Derek Ortt

#153 Postby Derek Ortt » Thu Jun 09, 2005 4:28 am

this is very close to becoming a tropical storm and likely will be one by later this morning or early this afternoon
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
mobilebay
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1853
Age: 51
Joined: Wed Aug 18, 2004 1:22 am
Location: Mobile, Alabama

#154 Postby mobilebay » Thu Jun 09, 2005 4:30 am

Derek Ortt wrote:this is very close to becoming a tropical storm and likely will be one by later this morning or early this afternoon

I agree Derek. If the LLC would just tuck under the convection, or at least partially tuck. The LLC appears pretty strong on Satellite.
0 likes   
Top
Matt-hurricanewatcher

#155 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Jun 09, 2005 4:41 am

This looks like Alison???
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
senorpepr
Military Met/Moderator
Military Met/Moderator
Posts: 12542
Age: 43
Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
Location: Mackenbach, Germany
Contact:
Contact senorpepr

#156 Postby senorpepr » Thu Jun 09, 2005 5:31 am

Mission II is over.


[RECCO | ONE (01L) Mission II, OB #14] Time: 1024Z; Lat: 21.1°N; Long: 85.8°W; Turbulence: None; Flt Condition: Clear; Flt Level: 23983ft; Flt Winds: S (160°) @ 24 mph; Temp: 3°F; Dewpoint: -13°F; Weather: Overcast Skies; Sfc Winds: N/A; Remarks: Last report


97779 10244 50211 85800 73100 16021 66753 /5757
RMK AF304 0201A CYCLONE OB 14
LAST REPORT
0 likes   
Top
Matt-hurricanewatcher

#157 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Jun 09, 2005 5:32 am

When is the next one.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
senorpepr
Military Met/Moderator
Military Met/Moderator
Posts: 12542
Age: 43
Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
Location: Mackenbach, Germany
Contact:
Contact senorpepr

#158 Postby senorpepr » Thu Jun 09, 2005 5:46 am

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:When is the next one.


If I'm reading the TCPOD correctly (looks like they messed up some times), but Mission III (AF Reserve crew) will take off at 15Z (11am EDT). Mission IV (NOAA crew) will take off at 18Z (2pm EDT). Mission V (AF Reserve crew) will take off at 02Z (10pm EDT). It will be a busy day indeed.

As for recon decoding... I'm out. I stayed up for Missions I and II... I need some sleep before my night shift tomorrow. We'll see what decoding I can do. However, this thread will remain active for posting any new observations from the upcoming missions.

Also, check out http://tropicalupdates.nhcwx.com/recon.htm
This website pulls the latest recon obs, flight plans, vortex messages, and supplementary vortex messages. This page also automatically updates -- which is very nice. Bookmark it! :wink:
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 626 guests