going out on a limb: Arlene by 11 a.m.

[HurricaneJoe22]

looking at the shortwave IR, you can see a ring of storms building in an arc on the north side of the center and moisture is moving in closer to the center....it's trying to wrap...I say we see Arlene at 11 a.m.

[Normandy]

I would agree.....but only because Im sure the convection has TS winds (VORTEX in the NW quad showed 35 mph i believe).

[mobilebay]

The circulation center (LLC) is strong enough I think. However, that thing looks horrible on Satellite imagery. It needs to completely tuck that LLC under some convection before we see any real strengthening. JMO

[Wpwxguy]

You can see that arc in the last infrared image. I'm going out there with you, it does not have to be extremely organized to be classified a TS just needs the winds and I think it has that in the NE quad. As Normandy said, 35 in the NW . Surely its better than that in the NE with the convection.

[mobilebay]

In fact, after looking at the latest satellite loops, the center of circulation has become very distinct. Take a look!


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[Normandy]

Or maybe it wont be Arlene....highest wind found is still 35 mph.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

So highest winds found earlier today where only around 19 to 23 mph.

[Normandy]

Point is, 35 mph is still a depression.

[mobilebay]

From my experience with disorganized Storms the strongest winds or usually in the Northeast Quad. They have not sampled that quad yet!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

That is the quad with the convection. In also that is the quad where the strongest winds are when in if this becomes something stronger.

[AussieMark]

i.e Pensacola was in the NE quad of Ivan.

[mobilebay]

i.e Pensacola was in the NE quad of Ivan.

In Pensacola case, it was the East Quad that got them. It was that direct south wind that brought in that massive storm surge.

[HurricaneJoe22]

thunderstorms have wrapped around the center except for the SW quadrant...I stand by my prediction of Arlene by 11 a.m.

[mobilebay]

thunderstorms have wrapped around the center except for the SW quadrant...I stand by my prediction of Arlene by 11 a.m.

I'm not saying you are wrong. In fact, you are probably correct. I've seen them upgrade some ugly looking systems before.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

What do you expect out of a depression. Earlier today it was no more then 20 mph. Now it is up to 35 mph winds.

[mobilebay]

What do you expect out of a depression. Earlier today it was no more then 20 mph. Now it is up to 35 mph winds.

I'm saying it maybe a weak Tropical storm now. However, the satellite signature is horrible and until the LLC tucks under some convection you are not going to see any real strengthening.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

True. This is Ivan when it was in the same area.

http://www.osei.noaa.gov/Events/Tropica ... 7_G12L.jpg

http://www.osei.noaa.gov/Events/Tropica ... 5_G12L.jpg

[Guest]

Hi everyone, and welcome back everyone. Coming at ya from Mobile, Al. where it is so humid tonight. Just wanted to say hello and may the force be with you all. I would also like to welcome our eventual and up and coming tropical star to be .....Arlene (not yet official by NHS). Interesting enough, my brothers name is Arlen and he can be a hot head and explode on you without notice, so I hope this isnt an indication of the future Arlene. Look for interesting developments on this system Thursday and Friday. Stay tuned.....

[dhweather]

looking at the shortwave IR, you can see a ring of storms building in an arc on the north side of the center and moisture is moving in closer to the center....it's trying to wrap...I say we see Arlene at 11 a.m.

Looks like you were right.