Arlene (01L) Recon Observations

[senorpepr]

First New ob out for Mission Two

URNT11 KNHC 090402
97779 03434 50282 89200 75300 15014 70841 /5756
RMK AF304 0201A CYCLONE OB 01

[RECCO | ONE (01L) Mission II, OB #1] Time: 343Z; Lat: 28.2°N; Long: 89.2°W; Turbulence: None; Flt Condition: Clear; Flt Level: 24705ft; Flt Winds: SE (150°) @ 16 mph; Temp: -4°F; Dewpoint: -29°F; Weather: Scattered Skies; Sfc Winds: N/A; Remarks: None

[senorpepr]

URNT11 KNHC 090424
97779 04134 50261 88210 88400 18011 8098/ /6965
RMK AF304 0201A CYCLONE OB 02

[RECCO | ONE (01L) Mission II, OB #2] Time: 413Z; Lat: 26.1°N; Long: 88.2°W; Turbulence: Lgt Ocnl Mdt; Flt Condition: Clear; Flt Level: 29003ft; Flt Winds: S (180°) @ 13 mph; Temp: -22°F; Dewpoint: -54°F; Weather: Unknown; Sfc Winds: N/A; Remarks: None

[senorpepr]

97779 04514 50231 86800 88400 20014 8089/ /6967
RMK AF304 0201A CYCLONE OB 04




[RECCO | ONE (01L) Mission II, OB #4] Time: 451Z; Lat: 23.1°N; Long: 86.8°W; Turbulence: None; Flt Condition: Clear; Flt Level: 29003ft; Flt Winds: S (200°) @ 16 mph; Temp: -22°F; Dewpoint: -38°F; Weather: Unknown; Sfc Winds: N/A; Remarks: None

[senorpepr]

97779 05164 50212 86100 88400 20028 7880/ /6968
RMK AF304 0201A CYCLONE OB 05


[RECCO | ONE (01L) Mission II, OB #5] Time: 516Z; Lat: 21.2°N; Long: 86.1°W; Turbulence: None; Flt Condition: Clear; Flt Level: 29003ft; Flt Winds: S (200°) @ 32 mph; Temp: -18°F; Dewpoint: -22°F; Weather: Unknown; Sfc Winds: N/A; Remarks: None

[senorpepr]

Of course, just as a reminder, you can check out S2K's Worldwide Tropical Update's Recon page for the latest recon data: http://tropicalupdates.nhcwx.com/recon.htm

[TSmith274]

Low sea surface temps? Where do you see low sea surface temps in the Gulf? I agree about all the dry air associated with the trough in the gulf but Im pretty sure the water temps are at least 81+ over the entire Central and Southern Gulf. In my book, thats plenty warm for a developing tropical system.

Yeah, I was a little misleading there. I had seen earlier today that SST's in the northern gulf off the coast of Louisiana are in the mid-70's. But, the rest of the gulf is warm. My fault... should have done a little more checking.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Senronperp any signs of a warm core. In how strong is the winds with this thing by your thinking?

[senorpepr]

[RECCO | ONE (01L) Mission II, OB #6] Time: 534Z; Lat: 19.7°N; Long: 85.8°W; Turbulence: None; Flt Condition: Clear; Flt Level: 1083ft; Flt Winds: NE (50°) @ 35 mph; Temp: 70°F; Dewpoint: 64°F; Weather: Rainshowers; Sfc Winds: N/A; Remarks: Sea Surface Pressure: 1007mb



97779 05340 50197 85800 03300 05030 21188 /0007
RMK AF304 0201A CYCLONE OB 06

[senorpepr]

Low sea surface temps? Where do you see low sea surface temps in the Gulf? I agree about all the dry air associated with the trough in the gulf but Im pretty sure the water temps are at least 81+ over the entire Central and Southern Gulf. In my book, thats plenty warm for a developing tropical system.

Yeah, I was a little misleading there. I had seen earlier today that SST's in the northern gulf off the coast of Louisiana are in the mid-70's. But, the rest of the gulf is warm. My fault... should have done a little more checking.

fair enough

[senorpepr]

Senronperp any signs of a warm core. In how strong is the winds with this thing by your thinking?

We'll see how much of a warm core it has as recon enters the central portion of the storm.

[Normandy]

That center of circulation is soo broad. How on earth could they fix the center?!?!?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I can now see a clearly defined center. It is about 50 miles or so to the west of that blob of convection. This thing is trying to wrap.

[Normandy]

I can see it too (last post was intentional exxageration), but point is that the convection is wraping around a radius of 50 miles from the center. It needs to get closer than that to do anything special.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

That convection is really blowing up. In look at the shear maps you notice how the upper high is trying to stick up with the cyclone? This could get interesting.

[Wpwxguy]

With what I'm seeing, its not a huge jump in development but its a good crawl. Could see this thing classified by morning IMO.
Then again maybe not. LOL

[Normandy]

The only thing I could see classifying this is winds alone...because signature it still looks like a weak depression.

[Wpwxguy]

Thats why I said its a crawl, just a little convection firing on the west side. I'm sure they have the winds in the northeast quad. by now to upgrade, but I guess we'll have to wait and see that recon.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The LLC is not to far away from that blob. It is centered at 83 west the center of the cyclone is around 83.9 or so. If that where to stick on top of the LLC things would change fast. In with that upper high just to the southwest of the system(It is slowly sticking on top to) A very weird system. I did not give it any chance earlier. Boy I could be wrong.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

19.87 N 85.06 W (19°52'27" N 85°03' 33" W)



Wind Direction (WDIR): NE ( 50 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 25.3 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 29.1 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 7.2 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 7 sec
Average Period (APD): 4.6 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.73 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.02 in ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 82.2 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 83.5 °F
Dew Point (DEWP): 74.7 °F
Heat Index (HEAT): 88.9 °F

This Buoy is way away from the center. It is was to the northwest of the LLC. It is also on the weak side. 30 mph surface winds with near 35 mph gust. Just think of the winds in that convection.

[senorpepr]

[VORTEX | ONE (01L) Mission II, OB #7] Time: 620Z; Lat: 18.2°N; Long: 84°W; Central Pressure: 1003 mb; Eye Character: N/A; Eye Shape: FALSE; Eye Diameter mi; Max Flt Wnd: 36 mph (NW quad); Est Sfc Winds (using 80% reduction): 29 mph; Remarks: Sea level pressure extrap from 1500ft



VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 09/06:20:10Z
B. 18 deg 11 min N
083 deg 58 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. NA kt
E. deg nm
F. 050 deg 031 kt
G. 311 deg 140 nm
H. EXTRAP 1003 mb
I. 23 C/ 330 m
J. 24 C/ 360 m
K. 23 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134 / 1
O. 0.02 / 10 nm
P. AF304 0201A CYCLONE OB 07
MAX FL WIND 31 KT NW QUAD 05:35:00 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.