0Z NOGAPS...What?

[MWatkins]

Of course, I HAD to check to see what the NOGAPS model was doing now that the GFS had shifted a bit eastward.

I wish I had gone to bed.

The 0Z NOGAPS takes TD1 into eastern LA in 48 hours. Yep. Friday night. Well at least the outer portion of the circulation by then. Don't believe me?



This is probably a day too fast at least. Hmm...let's see how the model initializes the system:



Yep. Too far south and west.

Gotta love the models. A classic illustration of why the models, as always, are guidance, not gospel.

I am NOT going to sit up and wait for the UKMET guidance. I am not...ok...let me check to see if it is out.

Ok...it's not out yet.

MW

[mobilebay]

mike also note the CMC is also a little farther east in almost the exact spot as the GFS. Near Pensacola, Florida.

[MWatkins]

mike also note the CMC is also a little farther east in almost the exact spot as the GFS. Near Pensacola, Florida.

Yep Mobile...it sure is. My initial thinking is that TD1/Arlene is going to come in near the FL/AL border not too far from where Ivan came in (in 60 hours or so). But...unfortunately all the bad weather is going to be east of there. Just looking at the IR2 imagery it looks like the LLC is getting better defined...althought the thunderstorm support seems to still be displaced to the east.

Looks like you're going to get another close call with...of course...a much weaker system.

MW

[Anonymous]

Ukmet track didnt change--but got a bit stronger vs the 12z

12z
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

00z
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

[TS Zack]

Let the debate begin. Thanks Mike. Right when everyone is calling it a night, you have to come start this.

LOL J/K!

[mobilebay]

mike also note the CMC is also a little farther east in almost the exact spot as the GFS. Near Pensacola, Florida.

Yep Mobile...it sure is. My initial thinking is that TD1/Arlene is going to come in near the FL/AL border not too far from where Ivan came in (in 60 hours or so). But...unfortunately all the bad weather is going to be east of there. Just looking at the IR2 imagery it looks like the LLC is getting better defined...althought the thunderstorm support seems to still be displaced to the east.

Looks like you're going to get another close call with...of course...a much weaker system.

MW

mike the funny thing is our State softball tournament is Friday night/saturday. I think we can kiss that goodbye.

[wlfpack81]

Well, actually it appears the 0Z UKMET is about 12hrs faster with the positoin than the 12z run (check storm locatoin at 72hrs out). Interesting....

[MWatkins]

Ukmet track didnt change--but got a bit stronger vs the 12z

12z
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

00z
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

Yep...but notice the UKMET starts out too far west and north:

http://www.met-office.gov.uk/sec2/sec2c ... wtnt80.txt

The NOGAPS is WAY TOO fast, the UKMET is on the left, and the GFS/CMC on the right. The 18z GFDL shifted to the east a bit...it will probably follow the GFS tonight...the 0Z will probably put the concensus guidance in the middle and more or less right on the NHC track. Perhaps a bit east.

Anyway...the NOGAPS model...and this was the point of the post...is out to lunch yet again. So if you throw that out...the remainig guidance is to the east a bit.

Very early on...my initial $ is on an AL/FL border landfall. but I reserve the right to change that opinion at any time without advance notice

MW

[mobilebay]

Mike you have got to admit though, the models are pretty tightly clustered. There is not a real outlier unless you count NOGAPS.

[MWatkins]

Mike you have got to admit though, the models are pretty tightly clustered. There is not a real outlier unless you count NOGAPS.

Yep throw out the NOGAPS model and the agreement is pretty good.

Of course...as always...agreement does not imply accuracy...per se.

In any event....I hope you need the rain.

MW

[Normandy]

....and the AE98H one or whatever its called.

[Droop12]

Good post Mike, Always enjoy them. I basically agree with you. I dont believe though that with the ridge in place, TD 1/Arlene will make it any further east than say Pensacola. Im thinking around Biloxi to Mobile as a strong tropical storm. I've noticed that with depressions, they usually wait around until they enter more favorable conditions and tehn begin to get their act together. I think that might be happening here. Its a very nerve racking expirence for all of us I know! Have fun tracking ya'll.

[mobilebay]

....and the AE98H one or whatever its called.

Is on crack, and has been for several years.

[Droop12]

I agree Mobilebay, I normally discount the A98E or whatever, unless Im stoned.

[Agua]

GFS brings it back to LA/Miss border as well. Models starting to tip back west a nudge?