Is it me or does TD look like it is heading

[wxcrazytwo]

N.E. It seems the dry air is pushing the system more north east towards Florida thann anything..

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurrir.html

Do a 12 loop frame..

[gatorcane]

A ridge is building in from the north and east so if it's even around tomorrow we should see it start heading NNW.

[Stratusxpeye]

I def agree. It looks like a n ne directional movement. If what im lokking at is the correct center. This also would show some of the effects of rain being felt here in south florida ealry tommorrow and tommorrow afternoon.

[gatorcane]

patience...look at the GFS and water vapor loops...the ridge is trying to build in...I think we'll see a NNW trend by tomorrow...

[gatorcane]

It does appear there is a good NNE movement tonight....I see what you guys are talking about. If it's still moving NNE tomorrow that would concern me....

[Stormcenter]

http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html - Look at this!!
We need to get some unbiased proffesional opinions here, so far it's just us Floridians posting haha..lol , but yea, and guys look at this anim, you can definatley see at least the thunderstorms really starting to go NE towards S. Florida, we on the SW FL coast are watching this nervously!

Kevin Cho - East Naples, FL
Junior: Naples High School

SW shear blowing storms off to the NE? Oh well I don't know it seems like we always get these types of "It looks like it's moving ____ " posts when we don't reallly have a well defined center to plot. I think it's way too early to have this thing heading toward Florida or anywhere else.

[gatorcane]

I hope the NHC didn't recalibrate their models to compensate for the strong Atlantic ridge we saw last year because JUST maybe they may be overestimating it and this thing moves more NE than they thought. Wouldn't that be interesting?

[Droop12]

I believe the shear its undergoing right now is what causes the system to look like its moving NNE. With IR, all you see is convection. We've all seen this before, shear pushes the storms away from the center giving the appearence the system is moving NNE when its not. I believe the LLC, if there is one is moving N slowly. Theres no way your going to tell which ways it moving using an IR or WV loop. Wait for the ridge to build in then we'll see a more defined movement. Instead of focusing on movement, lets just see if she survives the night. Its usually early in the morning when these tropical systems flare up, so if she can survive intact tonight and blow up alittle convection around her center tomorrow things should get cranking.

[Anonymous]

It has in fact moved a little East of due north.... was at 5pm @ 2=84.0'0"W and now is at 83.54'0"W. This is not forecasted to last though as it should begin to bend a little left/NNW eventually... of course, anyone in "the cone"...as far east as Appalachicola, Fla... should keep an eye as it could dump a lot of heavy rain (moreso rain than winds).

[Droop12]

I seriously doubt that Boca. The ridge isnt supposed to move into the picture until tomorrow anyways. By that time, as the models have been showing, the trough will back out and the ridge should enter the picture from the East. Then by this time slow intensification should occur and a movement in between the ridge in the eastern gulf and trough in the western gulf. I would expect basically a NNW movement, turning more N just before landfall, Just like the NHC forecast shows.

[TS Zack]

After 4 you all still want another one.

No if you look at the IR Ch 4 and zoom. You can see the circulation just West of the new burst of convection. All you are seeing is the whole area of cloudiness getting sheared to the Northeast and the bands rotating to the Northeast.

[gatorcane]

Droop12, it's hard to disagree with you and all of the models. I concur with your statement although I thought it would be interesting if this indeed ends up farther east than they thought. It would set a tone for the rest of this year's hurricane season and NHC forecasting.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

As for as I can see a deep area of convection is forming over the LLC. If so this thing is about ready to prove me wrong.

[boca]

It's still going to be a big rainmaker for Florida without the high winds.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

What I mean is I thought this storm would not make it through tonight. In if it is forming a central Core then. I'm wrong.

[mobilebay]

matt I agree on the Thunderstorms. However, the LLC is stronger than ever. It is very evident here, http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

If this system is really getting its act together then the LLC will force the convection into it/Over it.

[Stratusxpeye]

This is in interesting map. http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200501_climo.html For all TD That have formed in her locatoin since 1851. What do you all think?

[Normandy]

Ok anything I said about an alternate center near Cayman was flat out wrong.

[Droop12]

I dunno, thats pretty interesting though. One thing we need to keep in mind, mother nature doest follow climatology. We'll see though.