Florida Thank the Atlantic Ridge This Time

[gatorcane]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Not that this depression will become very strong, maybe just a T.S but the reason it will not hit FL is because of the Atlantic ridge that fortunately has arrived JUST in time. This ridge has not been around up until now....even a week ago this storm would be able to cross the peninsula...so timing is everything isn't it and this time the timing is fortunate for FL...

From the NHC 5pm discussion:

THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH AT ABOUT 6 KT...WHILE THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAK. HOWEVER...A RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A SLIGHT TURN TO THE LEFT INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE GFDL...GFS...UKMET...AND NOGAPS BRING THE SYSTEM NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST IN ABOUT THREE DAYS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THIS GUIDANCE.

[Anonymous]

Maybe the ridge is a good thing for Fla this year!

[StormChasr]

This isn't gonna be Florida's year--we had our turn in the barrel last year. Figure a lot of recurvatures, and some mild Gulf action, much like we are seeing now.

[dhweather]

Odds are that the weather with TD 1 will all be to the right of landfall, so
Ivan ravaged areas get whatever this system has to offer.

[gatorcane]

This isn't gonna be Florida's year--we had our turn in the barrel last year. Figure a lot of recurvatures, and some mild Gulf action, much like we are seeing now.

Yes, I tend to agree somewhat with you on this. I can't imagine back to back years of major hurricanes hitting FL. Possibly alot of activity in the Atlantic that ends up moving north out to sea.....or maybe hits up the SE coast more in the Carolinas...

[gatorcane]

Maybe the ridge is a good thing for Fla this year!

Maybe, it's all timing. The ridge could bring Cape Verde storms into FL come Aug-Sept but it all depends on when/where/how strong the ridge is and where the hurricanes are. Nobody knows.

[docjoe]

Maybe the ridge is a good thing for Fla this year!

perhaps it would be better to say maybe the ridge is a good thing for the peninsula. looks to me like whatever this ends up being is gonna be around the panhandle...which is still a part of florida

docjoe

[gatorcane]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Agreed. Take a look at the satellite imagery. Most of the activity is well east of the center. I think the panhandle could see the brunt of the activity and most of the peninsula will be affected by high cloudiness with some rain and increasing SE winds as the gradient tightens between this developing low and the high pressure building in to the north and east.

[GulfHills]

Could you explain this ridging....and maybe a link to a map where I could understand it.

[gatorcane]

The ridging is essentially high pressure that is building to the north and east of the system. If you look at one of the model runs (e.g the GFS) you can see this ridging in the Western Atlantic that over the next few days will begin to build S and W. Hurricanes take the past of least resistance so they won't move into a ridge. They will be steered around the ridge in a clockwise fashion.

You can see the ridge on the 60 hr GFS projection. It's in the oranges in the Atlantic with the center being the darkest orange. The low is in the greens:

[gatorcane]

Here's the link:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2005060818&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=060hr

[gatorcane]

You can also begin to see this ridging in the water vapor loop. Look at the top of this picture and you will see the orange (dry air that comes with the ridge) starting to build S.

[cyclonaut]

You got it StormChasr & Boca_Chris!!!

The atmosphere has a hit list & last year was Florida's turn so it can't possibly happen again this season!!!

NOT

Lets go back in time & though I know there are skeptics that have their mind made up lets take a journey into the past..........


Once upon a time in the year 1944,after a quick 3 year break without feeling the effects of a major hurricane,Florida was struck by a very strong hurricane with no name.

Some of the StormChasrs & Boca_Chris' of the time were impressed with this mighty storm & said things like

we had our turn in the barrel last year

&

I can't imagine back to back years of major hurricanes hitting FL

.

Well not even a year goes by & guess what?

Another strong hurricane is headed for Florida!!

But this cant happen happen shouts Boca_Chris!!! It happened last year!!!

Little did the violent storm care about what happened last year.

Though the hurricane gave them a good scare,there was reason to celebrate..After last year's hurricane & then not even 8 months later another one..Certainly this must be the end?Voices utter with anguish.

WRONG!

40's Boca-Chris & StormChasr were in a state of shock!!They thought for sure that after last year this madness could not continue.

Its now 1946 & again the boys are feeling joyful as their beloved state has taken a pounding in the last few years..They are in agreement that it can't happen this year..Things are looking up & then OHHH NOOO!!!


What was that??? Whispers Chris
I think that ws another hurricane moans StormChasr
LOOOK OUT!!

What the....!
Just a tropical storm this time .

Can the boys take anymore??Their beloved state has been pummeled over the last 3 years by 4 mighty hurricanes & one storm.

Now the boys know that it can't get any worse.

They greet the new season with optimism that its someone else's turn.

The optimism does not last!


& before you can take a deep breath.

If you are waiting for a happy ending there isnt one until 1951 when no hurricane hit..Just a tropical storm was all.





If seeing 11 hurricanes hit Florida for 7 years in a row does'nt wake you guys up nothing will.

Please put away your crystal ball & let it be.

[crazycajuncane]

I have a feeling since everyone thinks it won't hapen again.... it will.

This storm right here... whether it be T.D. #1 .. T.S. Arlene or Cat. 1 Hurricane will still bring rains to the peninsula.... probably the worst of the storm over the same Ivan struck areas.

[GulfHills]

Thanks for the explanation, and the map. So the dry air (ridging) is on the west of this system too right?

Also, how do they know this ridging will be in place for the rest of the hurricane season?

[Normandy]

Whatever cyclonaut....despite all that convincing data you just showed me...it still can't happen again.

[gatorcane]

Thanks for the explanation, and the map. So the dry air (ridging) is on the west of this system too right?

Also, how do they know this ridging will be in place for the rest of the hurricane season?

Sometimes dry air doesn't mean ridging. Troughs can also show as dry air on the water vapor. Indeed that is what you are seeing to the NW. If it weren't for that trough, TD1 would be able to move even farther west than currently forecasted.

As far as ridging nobody knows where and how strong this ridging will be the rest of the hurricane season and it's currently impossible to predict months in advance. The atmosphere is in constant flux. Ridges come and go, troughs come and go, etc...it's a waiting game.

[drudd1]

I think I'll wait and thank the ridge after hurricane season. Last year is still too fresh in the mind, so I don't trust it one bit.

[StormChasr]

If seeing 11 hurricanes hit Florida for 7 years in a row does'nt wake you guys up nothing will.

Yeah, it wakes me up to the fact that according to the laws of probability, that would be highly UNLIKELY to repeat itself. Unless you reject the SCIENCE of probability for guess-casting that the 1940's will repeat themselves in an almost deja-vu kind of pattern?

[Anonymous]

If seeing 11 hurricanes hit Florida for 7 years in a row does'nt wake you guys up nothing will.

Yeah, it wakes me up to the fact that according to the laws of probability, that would be highly UNLIKELY to repeat itself. Unless you reject the SCIENCE of probability for guess-casting that the 1940's will repeat themselves in an almost deja-vu kind of pattern?

Now DR Gray has mentioned that we are returning to an active period like the 1940s. It is possible IMHO