Hopefully not a peninsula FL threat

[boca]

I'm hopeing the models are correct and keeping this system well west of Florida and along the northern Gulf coast as a depression and nothing stronger than that. I'm going to Disney this weekend and hopefully no surprises.I guess Florida wil be off the hook this time if models are correct and since so many are clustered around the same areas no worries here.

[StormChasr]

It would only be a peninsula threat if the models have incorrect data---won't happen.

[skysummit]

I'll be in Pensacola this weekend, but I think we'll be back home before any sort of threat comes.

[boca]

Stormchasr,put your anti-hurricane suit on and protect all Florida.

[StormChasr]

Stormchasr,put your anti-hurricane suit on and protect all Florida.

Not necessary. IF this thing develops, and I say"IF," it looks like a North GOM system, and probably a TD at most. It has warm SSTs to fuel it, but will be fighting shear to get going.

[Amanzi]

I tend to agree with storchasr (btw howdie neighbor!) I see this system, what ever it may end up being heading towards the Northern GOM states (sorry Bama!), just my very worthless 10c opinion.

[StormChasr]

tend to agree with storchasr (btw howdie neighbor!) I see this system, what ever it may end up being heading towards the Northern GOM states (sorry Bama!), just my very worthless 10c opinion.

HEY!! Where in Palm Coast? I was just up there yesterday.

[Ixolib]

...and hopefully not a Keys & SWFL event either. We're leaving Biloxi on Saturday (6/11) and will be in the Middle Keys from Sunday thru Thursday. Then it's off to Sanibel from Friday thru Monday. Anybody care to speculate on the WX we can expect over this time period? We're hoping for just the typical summer pattern with tstms in the afternoons.

[jabber]

...and hopefully not a Keys & SWFL event either. We're leaving Biloxi on Saturday (6/11) and will be in the Middle Keys from Sunday thru Thursday. Then it's off to Sanibel from Friday thru Monday. Anybody care to speculate on the WX we can expect over this time period? We're hoping for just the typical summer pattern with tstms in the afternoons.

I hope you get better weather in Sanibel then I did last week. We were at Captiva and it rained pretty much start for the 4 days we stayed. Hopefully by the time you get there this will have passed and a more normal summer pattern will set up.

[Amanzi]

tend to agree with storchasr (btw howdie neighbor!) I see this system, what ever it may end up being heading towards the Northern GOM states (sorry Bama!), just my very worthless 10c opinion.

HEY!! Where in Palm Coast? I was just up there yesterday.

I live off the A1A across the bridge... On the water (intracoastal), North of Palm Coast city propper.

[Brent]

...and hopefully not a Keys & SWFL event either. We're leaving Biloxi on Saturday (6/11) and will be in the Middle Keys from Sunday thru Thursday. Then it's off to Sanibel from Friday thru Monday. Anybody care to speculate on the WX we can expect over this time period? We're hoping for just the typical summer pattern with tstms in the afternoons.

It's looking pretty close to normal(maybe slightly more numerous than usual)... all dependent on the low track.

[cyclonaut]

I don't think that it will be a direct hit on the peninsula.Having said that,if it should come close enough it could dump lots of rain.In 66 Alma passed a few hundred miles to the west of South Florida & some areas picked up 7+ inches of rain.

Another Alma in 70,(much weaker than her predecessor) went by even further west & still managed to dump 4+ inches on parts of South Fla.

Most of the bad weather this system will provide should be to the east of the center so lets see what atkes place here today as to where this thing will ultimately end up.

[Ixolib]

...and hopefully not a Keys & SWFL event either. We're leaving Biloxi on Saturday (6/11) and will be in the Middle Keys from Sunday thru Thursday. Then it's off to Sanibel from Friday thru Monday. Anybody care to speculate on the WX we can expect over this time period? We're hoping for just the typical summer pattern with tstms in the afternoons.

It's looking pretty close to normal(maybe slightly more numerous than usual)... all dependent on the low track.

I hope your're right, Brent. Seems by what I'm hearing, the low may be tracking toward our neck of the woods just as we're planning to leave for hopefully sunnier skies in SWFL. Hmmmm... Could be a dilema or a song - "Do I Stay or Do I Go". As I just told the wife - a lot can (and will) change between now and any "potential" landfall.

[rolltide]

Hopefully not a Pensacola threat. About the last thing we need now.

[cyclonaut]

Looks like South Fla might get some heavy rains out of this like I mentioned above...This from the NWS Miami Discussion;

DISCUSSION...LOW PRESS OVER WESTERN CARIB LOOKING BETTER AS TIME GOES BY. WITH FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS AND SST'S AROUND 28-29 DEGREES CELSIUS...SYSTEM COULD EASILY DEVELOP INTO A TD NEXT 12 HOURS. EVEN IF IT DOES NOT. ALL MODELS NOW HAVE THE SYSTEM MOVING NORTH ACROSS YUCATAN CHANNEL OR WESTERN CUBA WITH A CONVERGENCE ZONE SETTING OVER S. FLA FRI THROUGH SUN. THIS PUTS S. FLORIDA UNDER RATHER WET SITUATION AND WE COULD EASILY SEE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES DURING THIS PERIOD ...WITH EVEN HIGHER LOCAL AMOUNTS. WITH THIS IN MIND AND GIVEN THA GFS HAS BEEN VERY PERSISTENT FOR THE PAST FEW RUNS WILL GO WITH HIGHER POPS FOR THE WEEKEND

[HurricaneJoe22]

well, it looks as if Florida is on the bad side as far as heavy rain and some gusty winds....and if it hits around Alabama, the western end of the Florida panhandle could get the worst of it...no?

[Ixolib]

I'm down here a little farther down the coast from Sanibel/Captiva and Fort Myers, i'm in the Naples Metropolitan Area in East Naples. I can safely tell you the ground is definately saturated from todays, and the weeks, plus last weeks constant down pours, some lasting hours upon end, I'm sure you should be OKAY for your vacation next week. TWC is predicting Heavy Rain/Thunderstorms and Wind for Friday and early Saturday, so it looks like you may miss the worst of it, probably a little rain, throughout the weekend and most of next week there's a 40%-70% chance of rain, so it's likely while your in SW FL you will get rain some part of every day, you should think of visiting Marco Island also, they actually got alot less rain most of the days than Sanibel/Captiva , heck, try Naples out to lol...Naples and Fort Myers and the 3 major islands here, Sanibel, Captiva, and Marco Island are always competing so lol, just enjoy SW FL, but expect some rain, both associated with possible Arlene, and also just regular thunderstorms and rain, as i'm sure you're use to in the South, just more so in SW Florida , enjoy your trip, and consider giving Naples/Marco Island a little day's stroll, it's nice here lol...

Kevin Cho - East Naples, FL
Junior: Naples High School

PS - Naples is the GOLF capitol of America...and the Retirement Capitol of the...WORLD!! lol.

Thanks for the overviw, Kevin. We're still hoping that by the time we come back north from the Keys on the 16th that all the rain will have moved well inland and it'll be a beautiful summer weekend on the GUlf Coast of SWFL. You do know, of course, how lucky you are to be living where you are, right!!

[Ixolib]

hehe, lol, yea it's a great place to live, there's not always the most to do, but the weather is great, to bad there are only 1 asians for every 300 people of other descent in all of Collier County haha...being an Asian American in Florida is kind of odd, it's even more odd when you're a high school student, but luckily this community is awesome, and it's a very diverse community . I hope you enjoy SW FL, and hope you return soon. If you drive through Charllote County and Lee County, and even parts of northern Collier County you can still see damage from Hurricane Charley so, you can see how much we went through as well, you guys up there got battered by Ivan, but I dunno, see what happened to us to , should be interesting.

Have a great vacation in S. Florida,
Kevin Cho - East Naples, FL
Junior: Naples High School

[corpusbreeze]

I hate to say this but I feel the Florida panhandle has a better chance than Louisiana. I just don't buy the nnw move and then a nw move at the end toward Louisiana. Climatologically storms move north to north east at this time of the year from that location. Also it seems the ridge will weaken later this week. But even if the center was to move over Louisiana the worst part of the weather would be east toward Florida. I hope this is not a sign of more bad days ahead for you guys in Florida.

[gatorcane]

Keep in mind nost of the energy with this storm will be the east of it with the predominant wind shear direction from SW to NE. so the west coast of FL and especially the panhandle will get alot of rain with it. Also most of FL will see increasing E winds starting tomorrow and becoming SE and S by the weekend at fairly high speeds (15-25 mph with higher gusts). This will result due to the increasing pressure gradient between the depression and the ridge that will build in to the north and east of it.