8pm TD 1

Website · #1 Postby **Brent** » Wed Jun 08, 2005 6:51 pm

Tropical Depression One Intermediate Advisory Number 1a

Statement as of 8:00 PM EDT on June 08, 2005

...Depression moving slowly northward over the northwestern
Caribbean...

a tropical storm watch is in effect for western Cuba for the
province of Pinar del Rio and the Isle of Youth.

Interests in the northwestern Caribbean should closely monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 8 PM EDT...0000z...the poorly-defined center of Tropical
Depression One was located near latitude 17.4 north... longitude
84.0 west or about 215 miles... 350 km... southwest of Grand Cayman
and about 305 miles... 490 km...south of the western tip of Cuba.

The depression is moving toward the north near 6 mph...10 km/hr...
and this general motion is expected to continue tonight and
Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph... 45 km/hr...with higher
gusts...mainly in rainbands to the north and east of the center.
Some strengthening is forecast...and the depression has the
potential to become a tropical storm during the next 24 hours.

The minimum central pressure measured by a reconnaissance aircraft
was 1003 mb...29.62 inches.

Heavy rainfall...accompanied by squalls...should begin to spread
across the Cayman Islands and western Cuba tonight and Thursday.

Repeating the 8 PM EDT position...17.4 N... 84.0 W. Movement
toward...north near 6 mph. Maximum sustained winds... 30 mph.
Minimum central pressure...1003 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
11 PM EDT.

Forecaster Pasch

#2 Postby **tracyswfla** » Wed Jun 08, 2005 6:54 pm

WOW TS Watches already!

Website · #3 Postby **Brent** » Wed Jun 08, 2005 6:56 pm

tracyswfla wrote:WOW TS Watches already!

That's because it's only about 30 hours from Western Cuba... maybe a little less. 2am Friday it's just past the Western Tip.

#4 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed Jun 08, 2005 6:56 pm

tracyswfla wrote:WOW TS Watches already!

The watches have been in place since 5 pm.

HurricaneBill · #5 Postby **HurricaneBill** » Wed Jun 08, 2005 6:59 pm

Arlene always seems to prefer being an early bird.

Aquawind · #6 Postby **Aquawind** » Wed Jun 08, 2005 7:07 pm

It will be interesting to see if the pressures continue to drop tonight. We will be watching..Loop mania and discussions that ruin our usage of the english language..lol.. bring it on...

Paul

Anonymous · #7 Postby **Anonymous** » Wed Jun 08, 2005 7:08 pm

Aquawind wrote:It will be interesting to see if the pressures continue to drop tonight. We will be watching..Loop mania and discussions that ruin our usage of the english language..lol.. bring it on...

Paul

Badabing

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #8 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Wed Jun 08, 2005 7:15 pm

The Gfdl/Gfs shows a Mobile landfall. Close to where Ivan hit last year. Thats if this storm makes it through the night.

Aquawind · #9 Postby **Aquawind** » Wed Jun 08, 2005 7:20 pm

I think it will persist. It has a large cyclonic circulation already..

Paul

#10 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed Jun 08, 2005 7:21 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:The Gfdl/Gfs shows a Mobile landfall. Close to where Ivan hit last year. Thats if this storm makes it through the night.

Don't worry, it will, and by tomorrow night, it will probably be Arlene already.

#11 Postby **Lowpressure** » Wed Jun 08, 2005 7:30 pm

I think it will take a little longer than that to organize. No convection near the center to speak of. It will become Arlene, but probably not as fast as you are indicating.

#12 Postby **tracyswfla** » Wed Jun 08, 2005 7:31 pm

HURAKAN wrote:
tracyswfla wrote:WOW TS Watches already!

The watches have been in place since 5 pm.

Sorry was bathing the kids, making dinner, ironing clothes, etc.. missed it.

#13 Postby **wxman57** » Wed Jun 08, 2005 7:38 pm

I can't understand why the NHC called it a depression. Very broad weak circulation, absolutely no convection within 50 miles of the center (which is generally a requirement for naming). I think it'll develop, but I guess I'll never be able to understand the NHC's procedures....

#14 Postby **tracyswfla** » Wed Jun 08, 2005 7:39 pm

wxman57 wrote:I can't understand why the NHC called it a depression. Very broad weak circulation, absolutely no convection within 50 miles of the center (which is generally a requirement for naming). I think it'll develop, but I guess I'll never be able to understand the NHC's procedures....

perhaps being more cautious? Kinda like EVACUATE Tampa! Charley is coming.... oops sorry Punta Gorda?

#15 Postby **Lowpressure** » Wed Jun 08, 2005 7:41 pm

wxman57 wrote:I can't understand why the NHC called it a depression. Very broad weak circulation, absolutely no convection within 50 miles of the center (which is generally a requirement for naming). I think it'll develop, but I guess I'll never be able to understand the NHC's procedures....

I am with you, I would guess the 1003 mb caught their attention. With models continuing to forecast slow development, they went forward. But like my other post said which you also pointed out, no convection near the center. I would like to see a burst right near the center to be a solid TD.

#16 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed Jun 08, 2005 7:44 pm

Sorry if someone gets offended, but please, could all these NHC bashing stop once and for all. Accept it, like it or not, we have the first tropical depression of the season, some may dissagree, other may say it has a "subtropical core". It's our first tropical depression and it will be Arlene in a couple of hours.

#17 Postby **Lowpressure** » Wed Jun 08, 2005 7:48 pm

HURAKAN wrote:Sorry if someone gets offended, but please, could all these NHC bashing stop once and for all. Accept it, like it or not, we have the first tropical depression of the season, some may dissagree, other may say it has a "subtropical core". It's our first tropical depression and it will be Arlene in a couple of hours.

Relax, no one is bashing. We are just making observations about no convection near the center. That is typically one of the criteria for a TD. At some point we will probably see a burst of convection near the center or they may relocate the center, it is all part of an organizing system. No one is bashing.

#18 Postby **Stormcenter** » Wed Jun 08, 2005 7:55 pm

wxman57 wrote:I can't understand why the NHC called it a depression. Very broad weak circulation, absolutely no convection within 50 miles of the center (which is generally a requirement for naming). I think it'll develop, but I guess I'll never be able to understand the NHC's procedures....

1003 mb pressure maybe?

#19 Postby **wxman57** » Wed Jun 08, 2005 8:06 pm

Stormcenter wrote:
wxman57 wrote:I can't understand why the NHC called it a depression. Very broad weak circulation, absolutely no convection within 50 miles of the center (which is generally a requirement for naming). I think it'll develop, but I guess I'll never be able to understand the NHC's procedures....

1003 mb pressure maybe?

That's usually about TD pressure, but the pressures in the Caribbean have been WELL below normal lately, so it's not too much different from the environment. I just thought it was interesting in their discussion that they only gave reasons why it shouldn't be upgraded - then they upgraded it.

No bashing here, just observations. I know all the guys at the NHC. They do their best. I just can't seem to find any consistency in what they name or don't name.

#20 Postby **Lowpressure** » Wed Jun 08, 2005 8:10 pm

The only other possibility is public awareness of a weekend landfalling early season system. Look how it lit this board up. If it is still a area of storms, not too many are paying attention. Just an alternate possible reason.

8pm TD 1

8pm TD 1

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