Hypothetically Speaking... (LA Evacs)

[Ixolib]

...If this storm (TD1) were forecast to be a CAT 3+, would the coastal towns south of N.O. be under "mandatory evacuation" at this time?

If so, I can't imagine what kind of success they plan to have with that plan!! Surely there will come a time when a storm is in this area with a similar track that IS forecast to be a much higher category at landfall...

[skysummit]

I doubt we'd be under a mandatory evac at this time....even if it were forecasted to be a cat 3.

[Ixolib]

Louisiana Develops Improved Hurricane Evacuation Plan

April 13, 2005 -- According to today's FEMA National Situation Update, a new hurricane evacuation plan was demanded by Governor Kathleen Blanco after Hurricane Ivan when a traffic snarl that stretched from New Orleans to Baton Rouge lasted upward of 12 hours. The plan was put together by state police and the DOTD and includes evacuation routes for not only New Orleans and points south, but Lake Charles, Lafayette and the Houma-Thibodaux area. Under the new plan preparing for evacuations would begin at least 72 hours in advance. One of the problems during Ivan was the time required to get barriers, people and other material in place to allow lane reversal on highways.

Beginning 50 hours in advance, evacuations south of New Orleans would be ordered, public offices and schools would be closed, but traffic would remain along normal routes.

At 40 hours, evacuation south of the Mississippi River, including the West Bank of New Orleans, would be ordered.

In Phase 3, if the storm is a category 3 storm or higher, contraflow would be triggered. Problems that slowed traffic last time ran the gamut from signs that were too hard to read, forcing drivers to slow excessively, to breakdowns. Under the new system tow trucks will be stationed along the routes and new signs will be installed. The new hurricane evacuation plan also requires a number of new ramps to be added or widened, new crossovers and other items at a cost of $7.5 million.

[bbadon]

Louisiana does not have mandatory evacuations. All evacuations in LA are recommended. Until the legislature changes this contraflow is not going to make a difference because everyone waits until the last minute. A multicolumn dollar add blitz is about to take place in NO and surrounding areas explaining the new system.

P.S. There is one way for mandatory evac, the Governor has to declare martial law. Not gonna happen.

What the article above does not state is that in a phase II of the evac some routes will be limited.

In phase III all traffic out of NO will be directed north. There will be no east west on I-10.

This was one of the ways the OEP was going to sell the plan trying to convince people to leave early but the Governor made them tone down the language so no business owners would be mad. Gotta love politics.

Maybe if the Governor sees that CAT 5 coming into Lake Ponchartrain and see about 500,000 dead people she will reconsider the strong language. Gees

[LSU2001]

PART I: GENERAL
A. SUMMARY:
The Southwest Louisiana Hurricane Evacuation and Sheltering Plan is
intended to provide a framework within which the parishes can coordinate
their actions with State government in order to deal with a catastrophic
hurricane.
A catastrophic hurricane is defined as a hurricane in Category 3 Slow (5 mph
or less forward speed), and categories 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale of
hurricane strength (See Annex A). Hurricanes in Category 1, 2 and 3 Fast,
are considered less destructive and can be met through the use of normal
emergency preparedness procedures on the part of the Parish and State
governments.
The overall strategy for dealing with a catastrophic hurricane is to evacuate as
much of the at risk population as possible from the path of the storm and
relocate them to a place of relative safety outside the projected high water
mark of the storm surge flooding and hurricane force winds.
The Southwestern Region is generally defined as those parishes which have
all or a large part of their population west of the Atchafalaya River Basin and
south of a line drawn along Interstates 10 and 49 from Baton Rouge, through
Lafayette to Lake Charles. The Region includes the parishes of Acadia,
Calcasieu, Cameron, Iberia, Iberville, Jefferson-Davis, Lafayette, St.
Martin, St. Mary and Vermilion. (A map is included as Annex B).
The plan prescribes an orderly procedure for the parishes to follow in response
to a catastrophic hurricane. It does not replace or supersede any local plans,
which are incorporated by reference, nor does it usurp the authority of any
local governing body.
The plan defines the problems inherent in evacuating the Southwest
Louisiana area and points out the limits that affect evacuation and sheltering
measures. It prescribes the actions to be taken at each stage of a catastrophic
hurricane emergency.
B. PURPOSE
It is the intent of this plan to establish guidelines for the direction, control and
coordination of evacuation of the Southwest Louisiana Region in order to
protect life and property. The plan also prescribes procedures and
7/00 I-2
responsibilities for sheltering operations.
C. CONCEPT OF OPERATIONS
1. When a hurricane enters, or forms in, the Gulf of Mexico, and it is
perceived as a potential catastrophic threat to the Southwest Louisiana
Region. The State Office of Emergency Preparedness and each parish
will activate Emergency Operating Centers (EOCs) and declare a state
of emergency. The State and parishes will commence planned
emergency operations and coordinate their actions including activating
and maintaining all means of communications.
The State, risk area and host area parishes will cooperate to evacuate
and shelter as many people as possible in accordance with the Dept. of
Social Services (DSS) / American Red Cross (ARC) Shelter Plan.
2. Evacuation will be carried out in three phases, as follows:
a. Precautionary / Voluntary:
This phase will concentrate on people who are most vulnerable to
a hurricane and the effects of both water and wind. It is directed
at offshore workers, persons on coastal islands or in wetlands
areas and persons aboard boats. No special traffic control,
transportation, or sheltering measures will be taken.
b. Recommended Evacuation:
This phase is enacted when a storm has a high probability of
causing a significant threat to people living in the areas at risk.
Parish and State government authorities will recommend that
persons at risk evacuate. The parishes will designate staging
areas for persons needing transportation, if necessary.
c. Mandatory:
This is the final, most serious phase of evacuation. Authorities
will put maximum emphasis on encouraging evacuation and
limiting ingress. Designated State evacuation routes maybe
augmented by turning additional lanes into one-way outbound
traffic and the State Police with Local law enforcement assistance
will assume responsibility for traffic control on those routes. As
the storm gets close to the Southwest Region, evacuation routes
7/00 I-3
will be closed and the people remaining will be directed to last
resort refuges.

Source:http://www.loep.state.la.us/plans/EOPSupplement1b.pdf


Apparently La. does have mandatory evacs. At least the state police think so. Though I do see where they will put maximum emphasis on encouraging evacs.

Tim