Recon Plan for Tomorrow...Wow

[MWatkins]

OK...they are not messing around or taking any chances with this system. Check out the recon plan for tomorrow:

SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 09/1100Z TO 10/1100Z MAY 2005
TCPOD NUMBER.....05-012

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (WESTERN CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE FLIGHT TWO
A. 09/1800Z,10/0000Z A. 10/0000Z
B. AFXXX 0301A CYCLONE B. NOAA9 0401A CYCLONE
C. 09/1500Z C. 09/1800Z
D. 21.0N 84.0W D. 22.0N 84.0W
E. 08/1300Z TO 09/0030Z E. NA
F. SFC TO 10,000FT F. FL410-FL450

FLIGHT THREE
A. 10/0600Z,10/1200Z D. 23.0N 85.0W
B. AFXXX 0501A CYCLONE E. 09/0400Z TO 09/1230Z
C. 10/0300Z F. SFC TO 10,000FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 3 HOURLY FIXES. ALSO,
A POSSIBLE NOAA G-4 MISSION AT 11/0000Z AND A POSSIBLE
NOAA P-3 SFMR MISSION.

The Biggest chenge for me so far, despite the fact that the low-level features now support some circulation (see the thin low clouds over land moving toward the clouds off the coast?)...is the significant improvement in the upper environment. At first in the models it was difficult to tell if the shear over the system relaxed as a result of the system's development in the model, but synoptically it looks like things are getting favorable in the mid/upper levels a little faster than even the models suggested.

They are not messing with this system and have scheduled 3 hour fixes which is not cheap. Also, looks like we may get a Gulfstream mission on Friday.

I don't believe they would task all of this aircraft time if they did not expect this to continue development.

MW

[Brent]

I agree. I was really shocked when I checked it out earlier. I thought maybe it was leftover from Ivan or Jeanne.

[cycloneye]

Agree 100% Mike.All those tasks mean that they see this developing more than what they thought.

[MWatkins]

Oh yeah...the possible SMFR mission is the new Stepped Microwave Frequencey Radiometer technology which does a tremendous job at estimating surface winds.

MW

[Derek Ortt]

one thing that has me concerned that this will remain very weak.

The UL is moving eastward, and the dry air is now very close to overtaking the system. I looked at a zoomed in sat loop and the low clouds to the south of the center have recently dissipated

[Derek Ortt]

conditions should be more favorable once it moves into the GOM though

[lilbump3000]

Well what concerns me is that usually during the evening hours there is always a blow-up of thunderstorms around central america.

[Air Force Met]

I agree...the upper environment is much improved...or at least forecast to be.

[Derek Ortt]

if this were 3 degrees farther east, conditions would be very favorable for rapid intensification.

May have to wait until it reaches the GOM before this takes off

[Air Force Met]

if this were 3 degrees farther east, conditions would be very favorable for rapid intensification.

May have to wait until it reaches the GOM before this takes off

The big LIMFAC i see is heat content.

[x-y-no]

if this were 3 degrees farther east, conditions would be very favorable for rapid intensification.

May have to wait until it reaches the GOM before this takes off

The big LIMFAC i see is heat content.

Yes, the surface has been warming up in the Gulf, but it's not a deep layer at all.

[caneman]

Still would think heat content could sustain minimal Hurricane not out of the question. Given good upper air dynamics.

[dhweather]

If the system moves as quickly as GFS/GFDL have it, the lack of deep
warm water won't affect the system much at all.

[canegrl04]

I get the feeling that this one is just the warning shot fired by the 2005 tropics season.Especially if Arlene turns into a minimal hurricane. Fasten your seat belts.Its going to be a bumpy ride

[PTrackerLA]

When can we expect to see a NNW or NW movement as some of the models indicate. I've looked at loop after loop and all I've been able to detect is a drift NE.

[dhweather]

When can we expect to see a NNW or NW movement as some of the models indicate. I've looked at loop after loop and all I've been able to detect is a drift NE.

Until it really gets a well defined center, it's not going to be easy to
determine motion. Right now, I'd say just east of due north.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Wasn't the forecast for the GOM to be a more hostile environment for this system once it entered later this week? From this posts I have read today it sounds like they are going to be a little more favorable for development.

[Agua]

Do you suppose they're taking this opportunity to sort of have a warm up for the season?

I dunno, it just doesn't look like much and so many of our experts here have expressed doubt that it would reach TS status.

[dhweather]

Do you suppose they're taking this opportunity to sort of have a warm up for the season?

I dunno, it just doesn't look like much and so many of our experts here have expressed doubt that it would reach TS status.

Could it be that the models are right for a change? lol

[Agua]

Do you suppose they're taking this opportunity to sort of have a warm up for the season?

I dunno, it just doesn't look like much and so many of our experts here have expressed doubt that it would reach TS status.

Could it be that the models are right for a change? lol

True. I'd take what our guys say over those models though any day. I'm sure you feel the same.