000
FXUS62 KTBW 081759
AFDTBW
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
200 PM EDT WED JUN 8 2005
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...MODELS CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING A TROPICAL
LOW OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN TODAY AND PUSHING IT INTO THE CENTRAL
GOMEX BY FRI. GFS IS FASTER WITH THE SYSTEM PUSHING IT THRU TO N
CENTRAL GULF COAST SAT MORNING. FOR THE LATEST INFO ON THIS SYSTEM...
STAY TUNED TO PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NHC.
FOR OUR FA...SFC RIDGE AXIS TO STAY OVER N FL OR GET PUSHED INTO THE
SERN U.S BY FRI....DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE GULF LOW.
TONIGHT...EXPECTING ERLY WINDS TO START PICKING UP AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS. FOR THU...MODERATE ERLY FLOW WOULD INDICATE THAT
THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE TRAPPED NEAR THE COAST. TROPICAL PLUME STILL
OVER AREA...GOOD HEATING...AND ANY OUTFLOWS THAT PUSH EWRD ALL COULD
GENERATE INLAND ACTIVITY. WILL GO WITH BEST POPS...60 PCT...NEAR THE
COAST AND KEEP 50 POPS INLAND.
FOR FRI...SUBSIDENCE AROUND THE LOW COULD LOWER RAIN CHANCES. NAM IS
PICKING UP ON THIS...KEEPING POPS IN THE 20-30 PCT RANGE FOR
FRI..WHEREAS THE GFS IS STAYING IN THE NMRS RANGE. GFS CROSS SECTIONS
INDICATE DEEP MOISTURE BUT SOME LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE. ALSO...COULD
CUT OFF GOOD INSOLATION WITH A THICK ENUF CIRRUS SHIELD. PREFER TO
KEEP POPS AT PREVIOUS 40 PCT VALUE AND REEVALUATE IN LATER
FORECASTS.
FOR MAX TEMPS WILL GO AT OR JUST ABOVE CLIMO ON THU AND AT OR JUST
BELOW ON FRI...BECAUSE OF MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.
.LONG TERM (FRI NGT-TUE)...NOW THAT SOME TYPE OF TROPICAL SYSTEM
APPEARS LIKELY...THE QUESTION FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND IS
WHERE WILL IT GO AND HOW FAST? THE WHERE IS THE GOOD NEWS FOR THE
SUNCOAST...WITH ALL MODELS TRACKING THE SYSTEM INTO THE CENTRAL OR
WEST CENTRAL GULF WITH POSSIBLE LANDFALL SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE
WESTERN FL PANHANDLE AND THE CENTRAL LOUISIANA COAST.
THE WHEN IS A BIT MORE DIFFICULT. GFS REMAINS THE FASTEST...CRUISING
THE SYSTEM AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF DEVELOPING HIGH-AMPLITUDE BERMUDA
HIGH AND ALREADY NORTH OF 28N BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE CANADIAN
STARTS THIS FAST...THEN INEXPLICABLY SLOWS IT DOWN ALONG THE WESTERN
PANHANDLE COAST. THE NAM IS NEARLY IDENTICAL IN POSITION WITH THE
GFS...ONLY 12 TO 18H SLOWER. USING A BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM FOR NOW
(AND MATCHING TPC/HPC PRELIM GUIDANCE FOR DAY 3/4) WILL KEEP
HIGHEST WINDS AND POTENTIALLY WETTER CONDITIONS FRI NIGHT/SAT WITH A
STEADY DROPOFF THROUGH SUNDAY.
FIGURING THE SENSIBLE WEATHER IS A BIT TRICKY. WHILE AREA WOULD BE
IN SUBSIDENCE SIDE OF SYSTEM...THE PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
IN SOUTHEAST FLOW IS RIGHT OVER THE PENINSULA. AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE
AND EVENTUAL WIND FIELDS WILL DETERMINE HAZARDOUS WEATHER THREAT
SAT (SMALL TORNADOES). MORE MORNING SUNSHINE COULD AID RAPID
DEVELOPMENT OF ROTATING FAIRLY FAST MOVING CELLS...WHILE A THICK
CIRRUS/ALTOSTRATUS DECK WOULD HOLD PRECIP AMOUNT AND THUNDERSTORM
THREAT DOWN. FOR NOW...HAVE RAMPED UP PCPN CHANCES FRI NIGHT...
CLOSER TO MORE CONSERVATIVE NAM GUIDANCE FOR NOW...AND BUMPED TO
HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY FOR SATURDAY.
HAVE KEPT DECENT CHANCES ON SUNDAY AS LIGHTER SE FLOW COULD FAVOR
COLLISION ON THE GULF COAST...AND CONTINUED THE DROPOFF MONDAY-
WEDNESDAY AS 500 MB HIGH SETTLE SOUTH WITH SOME DECENT DRYING
ALOFT.
THE WEEKEND SITUATION SHOULD COME INTO BETTER FOCUS IN THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HOURS.
&&
.MARINE...ALL EYES ARE ON THE TROPICS TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN. WHETHER IT DEVELOPS OR NOT...
EXPECTING ERLY TO SERLY WINDS TO PICK UP BECAUSE OF A TIGHTER
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS. WILL BUMP WINDS INTO SCEC RANGE
LATE THU FOR THE SRN WATERS...AND THEN CAP VALUES ON FRI AT 20 KTS.
WAVE MODEL INDICATES SOME FAIRLY HIGH WAVE HEIGHTS...7 FT LATE THU
OVER THE SRN WATERS AND THEN BUILDING TO 10 FT WELL OFFSHORE ON FRI
AND INTO EARLY SAT...BEFORE DROPPING BACK DOWN. AS WITH THE WINDS...
WILL CAP WAVES AT 7 FT FRI AND SAT...BUT SHUD THE SYSTEM DEVELOP WILL
HAVE TO CRANK THEM UP.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS...THOUGH SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS
SHOULD INCREASE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS SYSTEM SWINGS BY BRINGING
DISPERSION INDEX VALUES INTO THE VERY GOOD RANGE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 73 90 74 89 / 30 60 30 40
FMY 74 91 74 88 / 30 60 30 50
GIF 73 91 74 89 / 30 50 30 40
SRQ 73 90 74 88 / 30 60 30 50
BKV 71 90 72 90 / 30 60 30 40
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...BSG