THE DISAPPEARING ATLANTIC RIDGE

[rainstorm]

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-b ... hour=144hr

almost completely gone

[senorpepr]

I see the subtropical ridge extending from Europe through the Southeast US with a weakness southeast of Bermuda -- far from beging "almost completely gone". This is a standard shift as lows and trough move about. Nothing to get excited about, IMO.

[Aquawind]

Well as much as I do like to see the ridge breaking..TBW Discussion thinks it probably will develop and the Bermuda High has setup shop as well..

Paul

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
200 PM EDT TUE JUN 7 2005


THE GOOD NEWS IS INCREASING RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...WHICH SUGGESTS A
SYSTEM AWAY FROM THE SUNCOAST. THIS IS BACKED UP BY WATER VAPOR
IMAGES WHICH CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD TROUGHING IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WHICH SHOULD FAVOR DEVELOPMENT OF THE FIRST TRUE BERMUDA HIGH OF THE
YOUNG SUMMER. THE RIDGE DEVELOPS WELL TO THE NORTH WITH THE 588 DM
CONTOUR MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND BY THURSDAY. THE ONLY FLY IN THE
OINTMENT IS THE FACT THAT THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE HAS NOT DEVELOPED
YET...AND THIS WILL EVENTUAL DETERMINE WHERE...IF ANY...SYSTEM WILL
TRACK.

[Wpwxguy]

This is not at all a forecast, only an observation. Current thinking is that the Bermuda High will strengthen and build in to the Southeast. The troughiness currently over the GOM will help to pull the tropical system(if it is indeed that) on a path into the central GOM riding between the trough and the ridge and eventually into the north central Gulf coast. That is the current thinking, now we all know how unreliable all this thinking can be. IMO this has a good potential to be Arlene in the next day or so. I would not dare to say what she will amount to at this point in time. It will at the least be an interesting week for all of us Hurricane enthusiasts.

Bill

[rainstorm]

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-b ... hour=144hr

[loon]

If this pans out, should make things interesting. I don't remember the ridge dying like that in previous runs....consistancy will be the key...interesting none the less..

cheers,
loon

[cyclonaut]

If thats the situation in Aug & Sept then it will be something..On June 8th...I don't know???

[rainstorm]

consistency will be a key. a weak ridge means lots of recurving storms. lets hope that is the case

[cyclonaut]

a weak ridge means lots of recurving storms

True but it only takes 1 that did'nt recurve to wreak havoc for someone.

The way I look @ it,the ridge could be mostly non-exsistant all summer & then just as a few storms appear on the horizon it could build in for a time & allow for a U.S. threat.

If 4 or 5 recurve but 1 does'nt & that 1 is a Hugo or Andrew no one will remember the ones that recurved.

Its not quanity I'm looking for its quality.

[rainstorm]

ridge completely gone

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-b ... hour=144hr

[Huckster]

I wouldn't say it's "completely gone," though it is weaker and squashed south in that image. Seems like we're trying to kill off hurricane season and "the ridge" while we've still got the ridge in the southeast US and a newly formed TD which seems likely to head NNW and intensify at least a little. Kind of like pointing out that there's still snow and ice melting in the mountains. So what? Ridges and troughs come and go.

[rainstorm]

I wouldn't say it's "completely gone," though it is weaker and squashed south in that image. Seems like we're trying to kill off hurricane season and "the ridge" while we've still got the ridge in the southeast US and a newly formed TD which seems likely to head NNW and intensify at least a little. Kind of like pointing out that there's still snow and ice melting in the mountains. So what? Ridges and troughs come and go.

i never saw anything close to this the last 2 tropical seasons. the ridge is gone and we have a massive negative nao. the ridge may return from time to time, but this bodes well for florida and the east coast

[Lowpressure]

LWX forecast discussion states ridge not going anywhere in the near term, with Virginia in the axis on extended outlook, shunting main rain shield associated with tropical system West, then North of Virginia.

[rainstorm]

the ridge will collapse as the low goes by

[Derek Ortt]

the high is very weak currently, in fact, its basically non existant

[senorpepr]

the high is very weak currently, in fact, its basically non existant

I'm going to have to disagree with you, Derek. The subtropical high is still fairly pronounced and is far from "non existant."

Even the subtropical ridge, although weak, is still present.

Although, I must admit, the occluded boundary sweeping through the Azores has weakened the high a bit.

[george_r_1961]

Its a little weak yes..and isnt June a little early for a persistant subtropical ridge anyway? We are still transitioning into a summer like pattern, and that transition is neaing completion.

[rainstorm]

THE BERMUDA LOW??

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-b ... hour=144hr

[senorpepr]

THE BERMUDA LOW??

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-b ... hour=144hr

I see slight ridging over Bermuda. There is a low to the southeast of Bermuda... but it's as close to Bermuda as Florida is.

[rainstorm]

i dont mean a tropical low. thats one huge trough where the bermuda high should be. june sets the pattern for summer. this may well indicate a very weak bermuda high this year