6-8-05 TWO 11:30 AM, TD appears to be FORMING!

[dhweather]

Here's a snapshot from my GARP screen. Looks like a broad weak low, but definitely NOT a TD at this time. Winds around the center 10-15 kts. Buoy pressure is rising to the north. Probably a TD by tomorrow, maybe a TS by then. COULD be a TD as early as tonight, though.

So that is the world according to Garp?

[wxman57]

Here's a snapshot from my GARP screen. Looks like a broad weak low, but definitely NOT a TD at this time. Winds around the center 10-15 kts. Buoy pressure is rising to the north. Probably a TD by tomorrow, maybe a TS by then. COULD be a TD as early as tonight, though.

So that is the world according to Garp?

No, just the northwest Caribbean..

[Dean4Storms]

Alright, since we have something brewing down there I have a couple of questions for anyone that can give some answers. First of all can this thing go POOF before our eyes overnight and die out? Second I was just looking at all the latest sat. pics from the gulf and noticed a big slug of dry air over Texas working SE towards our developing system. I know I am rusty as I have not read loops for 9 months or so, but would that not shear this apart or at least move it more easterly? Lastly how do the computer models pick up on the potential for storms to develop out of nowhere a week in advance?

Very unlikely that this system just dies given the convection, no front or shear and the developing low at the surface. The ridge building eastward over the western gulf has made it about as far eastward as it is forecasted to expand, meanwhile a ridge in the Atlantic is forcasted to push across Forida out into the eastern Gulf, this will provide the mechanism for this forming low to be driven northward between them. Models are fed all weather data, pressures, winds, e.t.c.... from around the globe, based on software that simulates general weather patterns they then in turn forecast where weather comes together to form lows, highs, fronts, e.t.c... It is alot more complicated than what I just gave you, but it is the basics. Hope I helped you some.

[Brent]

Here's a snapshot from my GARP screen. Looks like a broad weak low, but definitely NOT a TD at this time. Winds around the center 10-15 kts. Buoy pressure is rising to the north. Probably a TD by tomorrow, maybe a TS by then. COULD be a TD as early as tonight, though.

So that is the world according to Garp?

No, just the northwest Caribbean..

What on earth is Garp anyway? I thought it said Crap there for a minute.

[tallywx]

Here's a snapshot from my GARP screen. Looks like a broad weak low, but definitely NOT a TD at this time. Winds around the center 10-15 kts. Buoy pressure is rising to the north. Probably a TD by tomorrow, maybe a TS by then. COULD be a TD as early as tonight, though.

Well, obviously any circulation is going to appear broad and weak on this GARP considering that the nearest buoys are very far away from where the apparent center of circulation appears to be falling. For all we know, there could be a well-defined LLC under that central area of convection that the fringe buoys would not show. Any circulation is "broad" around the edges.

[canegrl04]

I'm not really surprised by these turn of events.Its been expected for awhile that the 2005 season will have above normal storms.

[jlauderdal]

The Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability product is getting fun to watch, too:

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/RAMM/gpar ... _loop.html

Thanks, I havent ever seen that product before and its quite interesting! While im posting, sending a shout out to everyone and wishing them a "happy" hurricane season, looks like its going to start early this year.

graphics remind me of pong in 1978..lol.

[tallywx]

graphics remind me of pong in 1978..lol.

ahh, how times have changed. "pong" is popularly known now (at least among collegiate circles) as a beer drinking game.

[wxman57]

GARP is a computer program used to display layers of meteorological data (obs and model data).