Looking at the first available visible imagery it does look like things have gotten a bit better organized at the surface, but still things look pretty messy down there. If anyone bit off on the bullish model runs from yesterday, like the GFS, if they were right would already have a Tropical Storm out there moving into the Yucatan channel. So as expected, things are progressing slowly. I would bet the first recon mission into the system gets cancelled but we'll see.
The 0Z GFS backed down some last night and has development a bit further to the south and west and a bit slower, and weaker than the previous 4 runs. New guidance will be out in the next few hours so I won't spend much time on the old guidance, but now that the UKMET is on board...well that helps make the case that we will see some additional development. Of course the key here is the timing...and at least the UKMET seems realistic with bringing what could be Arlene out slowly...
I'll try to jump in again once the new guidance comes out...
MW
Tropical System Quick Hits
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Tropical System Quick Hits
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Re: Tropical System Quick Hits
MWatkins wrote:I'll try to jump in again once the new guidance comes out...
MW
Please do!!!!!
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