Still skeptical this evening......

[MGC]

I know most all models spin up something in the NW Caribbean. But looking at the satellite loops tonight all I see is convection enhanced by the trough over the GOM. What little convection that exists is sparce and looks to be moving to the NE away from the alledged circulation center. Things better fall into place and rather quickly if the GFDL is to verify (which I doubt). Right now I placing bets that the recon will cancelled tomorrow.....MGC

[Rainband]

No way Gfdl will verify

[Stormcenter]

I know most all models spin up something in the NW Caribbean. But looking at the satellite loops tonight all I see is convection enhanced by the trough over the GOM. What little convection that exists is sparce and looks to be moving to the NE away from the alledged circulation center. Things better fall into place and rather quickly if the GFDL is to verify (which I doubt). Right now I placing bets that the recon will cancelled tomorrow.....MGC

Way too early to hedge either way on this. I think tomorrow we "may" know if this will do something or not.

[mobilebay]

I know most all models spin up something in the NW Caribbean. But looking at the satellite loops tonight all I see is convection enhanced by the trough over the GOM. What little convection that exists is sparce and looks to be moving to the NE away from the alledged circulation center. Things better fall into place and rather quickly if the GFDL is to verify (which I doubt). Right now I placing bets that the recon will cancelled tomorrow.....MGC

First of all you have to remember there was NOTHING there at all last night. I think the system is looking pretty healthy for only being around for abot 18 hours. MGC you know these things don't just spin up in a few hours. Give it a little time. I think this one is going to happen.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Most of the models are forming something. I would not discount the Gfdl yet.


Many of the models are forming something with in 24 to 36 hours. If they are all this wrong dear god they are worthless then or we are and trouble.

[cycloneye]

The key word is persistance.Let's see if the deep convection can persist for around 48 hours,and also have a well defined LLC and if that occurs then yes we have something.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Tropical storm like Bill of 2003 developed from nothing to a tropical storm in 12 hours.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

[mobilebay]

I was not trying to be ugly with my post above. Remember last night the system did not even exist. Most people believed the models where developing the Tropical Wave in the Eastern Caribbean sea. So far the models have been on target. The GFS forecasted a Surface low to develop over or just north of Honduras and it has. I just don't understand why we have people wanting to discount them already.

[HURAKAN]

Many things can happen in 24 hours, for example, 24 hours back which was the disturbance with possibilities of development, better to say, which was the only disturbance, the one in the Eastern Caribbean. 24 hours ago we didn't even had the disturbance in the Western Caribbean, no one was paying attention to this area. Maybe, 24 hours in the future we could be talking about a strong disturbance with a good chance of becoming a TD or we could also be talking about the demise of a disturbance. Like it has been said several times, "this is a waiting game."

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

heck 24 hours from now we might be watching a tropical cyclone(Recon go's in tomarrow)

[mobilebay]

Many things can happen in 24 hours, for example, 24 hours back which was the disturbance with possibilities of development, better to say, which was the only disturbance, the one in the Eastern Caribbean. 24 hours ago we didn't even had the disturbance in the Western Caribbean, no one was paying attention to this area. Maybe, 24 hours in the future we could be talking about a strong disturbance with a good chance of becoming a TD or we could also be talking about the demise of a disturbance. Like it has been said several times, "this is a waiting game."

True. However, the models NEVER jumped on that wave like it has this system.

[Rainband]

Many things can happen in 24 hours, for example, 24 hours back which was the disturbance with possibilities of development, better to say, which was the only disturbance, the one in the Eastern Caribbean. 24 hours ago we didn't even had the disturbance in the Western Caribbean, no one was paying attention to this area. Maybe, 24 hours in the future we could be talking about a strong disturbance with a good chance of becoming a TD or we could also be talking about the demise of a disturbance. Like it has been said several times, "this is a waiting game."

True. However, the models NEVER jumped on that wave like it has this system.

yes they have.

[Stormcenter]

Tropical storm like Bill of 2003 developed from nothing to a tropical storm in 12 hours.

Good point Matt.

[mobilebay]

Many things can happen in 24 hours, for example, 24 hours back which was the disturbance with possibilities of development, better to say, which was the only disturbance, the one in the Eastern Caribbean. 24 hours ago we didn't even had the disturbance in the Western Caribbean, no one was paying attention to this area. Maybe, 24 hours in the future we could be talking about a strong disturbance with a good chance of becoming a TD or we could also be talking about the demise of a disturbance. Like it has been said several times, "this is a waiting game."

True. However, the models NEVER jumped on that wave like it has this system.

yes they have.

I don't agree with this at all. What model has jumped on that wave and developed it into a 997MB low. Plus have other models backing it up. not to mention this has been going on for two days.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The Gfs/CMC wented to develop the system in the Eastern Caribbean into a pretty powerful little storm. But it did not have nearly the support as this doe's. Plus this is with in 24 hours. That was over 2 to 3 days time spend.

[Rainband]

Same thing has happened many times before with other waves and even storms. I will do research and get back to you.

[mobilebay]

Same thing has happened many times before with other waves and even storms. I will do research and get back to you.

Sounds like the NHC is buying it. No system this year has had this kind of model support. No offense Rainband, but I just disagree with you. You are a great poster and respect you alot.

[cyclonaut]

This system has got fairly good UL support as of this time..If it can get some intense convection to fire up & maintain itself this thing will have an opportunity to become a formidable system.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I agree cyclonenaut.