08/00Z NHC Model Suite

[senorpepr]

Code: Select all

 TROPICAL DEPRESSION     INVEST (AL902005) ON 20050608  0000 UTC

          ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS...   ...36 HRS...
          050608  0000   050608  1200   050609  0000   050609  1200

           LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
  BAMD    16.0N  85.5W   17.6N  85.2W   19.3N  85.5W   21.0N  86.3W
  BAMM    16.0N  85.5W   17.3N  85.5W   18.5N  85.6W   19.7N  85.9W
  A98E    16.0N  85.5W   16.2N  85.5W   16.9N  85.6W   17.9N  85.3W
  LBAR    16.0N  85.5W   16.7N  85.6W   17.8N  85.7W   19.2N  86.3W
  SHIP        20KTS          23KTS          28KTS          32KTS
  DSHP        20KTS          23KTS          28KTS          32KTS

          ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS...   ..120 HRS...
          050610  0000   050611  0000   050612  0000   050613  0000

           LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
  BAMD    22.8N  87.3W   26.6N  88.9W   31.6N  89.7W   37.1N  88.4W
  BAMM    21.6N  86.3W   26.4N  87.1W   31.6N  88.2W   35.8N  87.5W
  A98E    19.1N  83.9W   21.4N  82.4W   23.2N  82.2W   22.6N  82.6W
  LBAR    20.7N  87.1W   24.3N  88.2W   28.2N  88.5W   31.1N  88.4W
  SHIP        37KTS          43KTS          41KTS          29KTS
  DSHP        37KTS          43KTS          34KTS          27KTS

               ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
  LATCUR =  16.0N LONCUR =  85.5W DIRCUR =   0DEG SPDCUR =   0KT
  LATM12 =  16.0N LONM12 =  85.5W DIRM12 = 360DEG SPDM12 =   0KT
  LATM24 =  16.0N LONM24 =  85.5W
  WNDCUR =   20KT RMAXWD =   30NM WNDM12 =   20KT
  CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   M
  RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM


[lilbump3000]

I think the storms thats currently out over the water will not be a part of the system. I think once the surface low moves off the coast, more storms might develop over the low.

[senorpepr]

I can't produce the typical map that I do at this time (maybe later tonight), but BAMD, BAMM, and LBAR have the low hitting between Gulfport, MS, and Mobile, AL. The A98E has the low dancing around western Cuba. This is a slight shift eastward from the 18Z run where New Orleans was pinpointed. Of course, this track will continue to wander around as this system is stationary and many things can happen...

[Anonymous]

Here ya go

[senorpepr]

Danke

[wxman57]

I think the storms thats currently out over the water will not be a part of the system. I think once the surface low moves off the coast, more storms might develop over the low.

I would agree with you there. I can see mid-level turning near 17-18N and 85W. That's the place to look for development, not that sheared area of tstms moving northeastward.

[Scott_inVA]

this is *only* current for tonight (6/7/05) but gives an idea on how everything is trending so far:

http://www.midatlanticwx.com/modelmap_sample.htm

Enjoy!

Scott

[senorpepr]

this is *only* current for tonight (6/7/05) but gives an idea on how everything is trending so far:

http://www.midatlanticwx.com/modelmap_sample.htm

Enjoy!

Scott

Of course, for those who enjoy looking at these maps, I suggest a subscription to Scott's website at http://www.midatlanticwx.com/

Scott has done a wonderful job in the past with these maps, and for just pennies a day, you can get this data on a continuous basis. It's well worth it.

[Stormcenter]

Here ya go

Thank you gentlemen!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It looks like this system has a real chance.

[Rainband]

cool... I hope the trof heads in and the ridge builds. Seems like the model think it will.

[senorpepr]

It looks like this system has a real chance.

We'll have to see what happens with the 30-40kt shear to the north.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8shr.GIF
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8sht.GIF

[Rainband]

sheared weak storm at best from the conditions forecast

[Josephine96]

Brilliant.. that yellow line says Florida lol

[Air Force Met]

sheared weak storm at best from the conditions forecast

I agree there. It's gonna be tough unless the center forms more east...but usually what happens is those thunderstorms seperate from the MLC...move off and dissipate. IF they are still there at noon tomorrow...we may have something. Chances are they will weaken tonight and a new round of convection nearer the coast will form tomorrow morning.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Remember when a system develops it forms a Upper level high. Which will make it more favable.

[Air Force Met]

Remember when a system develops it forms a Upper level high. Which will make it more favable.

Not really. When a system develops, it adds energy into the upper atmosphere, upper heights rise due to latent heat release of condensation. However, if that energy is blown downstream by shearing winds...it will basically not form anything...it will just add some energy into the atmosphere downstream...and meanwhile...the system remains sheared. If the upper atmosphere is tranquil or if the system is in an area of ridging already, a system can enhance that ridging...but it doesn't really form it...it's usually already there in some fashion.

Something that all enthusiasts need to remember...upper lows rule. They will take a Cat 5 and turn it north and knock it down to a Cat nothing if it's strong enough. No amount of deep convection around a system can overcome increasing shear over the top of a system...it just doesn't happen.


...edited for my bad spelling

[senorpepr]

Remember when a system develops it forms a Upper level high. Which will make it more favable.

Not really. When a system develops, it adds energy into the upper atmosphere, upper heights rise due to latent heat release of condensation. However, if that energy is blown downstream by shearing winds...it will basically not form anything...it will just add some energy into the atmosphere downstream...and meanwhile...the system remains sheared. If the upper atmosphere is tranquil or if the system is in an area of ridging already, a system can enhance that ridging...but it doesn't really form it...it's usually already there in some fashion.

Something that all enthusiasts need to remember...upper lows rule. They will take a Cat 5 and turn it north and knock it down to a Cat nothing if it's strong enough. No amount of deep convection around a system can overcome increasing shear over the top of a system...it just doesn't happen.

Well said.

[canegrl04]

You know something is brewing when even WeatherBug is making mention of it

[Brent]

You know something is brewing when even WeatherBug is making mention of it

Or when TWC is.

When they interrupt Storm Stories, then it's time to run for the hills.