A Guide to Tropical Systems with Concern Levels

[DoctorHurricane2003]

I'm starting to notice some people labeling every pop up thunderstorm as an area of concern. So, for their assistance, I have developed a guide that will help people decide if something has a chance of development and whether or not it is concerning.

Concern Levels Used For The Purposes of this Guide Only:
1-No Development Chance, ignore it and don't talk about it
2-Development Chance, but not concerning yet
3-Developed, Somewhat Concerning
4-Developed, Extremely Concerning
5-Developed, Rare, but Exceptional in Concern

Pop up Thunderstorm- Usually forms under a high pressure system in hot southern summer afternoons. Concern Level 1.

Mesovortex- Can form from stronger thunderstorms over land or water, but usually dissipates within a day. May appear as large as a small tropical system or as small as a naked swirl. Concern Level 1.

Naked Swirl- A low level circulation center with a weak low pressure and no thunderstorms. Concern Level 1.5.

Tropical Wave- A trough of low pressure involving an axis with winds going opposite directions on either side of the axis. Can have thunderstorms and can also be very weak. Concern Level 2.

Tropical Low- A broad area of circulation usually involving thunderstorms that generally describes the stage before a tropical depression. Concern Level 2.

Tropical Depression- A developed tropical cyclone with winds below 39 MPH. Concern Level 2.5.

Tropical Storm- A developed tropical cyclone with winds between 39 and 73 MPH. Concern Level 3.

Category 1, 2 Hurricane- A developed tropical cyclone with winds between 74 and 95, and 96 and 110 MPH respectively. Concern Level 3.5.

Category 3, 4 Hurricane- A developed tropical cyclone with winds between 111 and 130, and 131 and 155 MPH respectively. Concern Level 4.

Category 5 Hurricane- A developed tropical cyclone with winds exceeding 155 MPH. These are very rare, so please do not forecast every pop up thunderstorm to become one of these. Concern Level 5.


Once again I reiterate the following:

Ignore:
Pop Up Thunderstorms
Mesovortices

Do NOT:
Forecast everything to become a category 5 hurricane.

Thank you! Have a nice day.

[Anonymous]

Category 5 Hurricane- A developed tropical cyclone with winds exceeding 155 MPH. These are very rare, so please do not forecast every pop up thunderstorm to become one of these. Concern Level 5.

Not lately.

[Brent]

Nice.

Category 1, 2 Hurricane- A developed tropical cyclone with winds between 74 and 95, and 96 and 110 MPH respectively. Concern Level 3.5.

Concern builds...

Category 3, 4 Hurricane- A developed tropical cyclone with winds between 111 and 130, and 131 and 155 MPH respectively. Concern Level 4.

Very concerned!

Category 5 Hurricane- A developed tropical cyclone with winds exceeding 155 MPH. These are very rare, so please do not forecast every pop up thunderstorm to become one of these. Concern Level 5.

Get as far away as fast as you can!

[senorpepr]

Category 5 Hurricane- A developed tropical cyclone with winds exceeding 155 MPH. These are very rare, so please do not forecast every pop up thunderstorm to become one of these. Concern Level 5.

Not lately.

Actually, it is still rather rare.

Since 1995 there has been 137 tropical storms of which 78 became hurricanes, 38 bacame major hurricanes, and 3 became category five.

If you exclude 1997, those numbers are 130, 75, 37, and 3, respectively.
If you focus on 2000 and later, those numbers are 72, 37, 18, and 2, respectively.
If you focus on 2002 and later, those numbers are 43, 20, 11, and 2, respectively.

If you figure those numbers off of a percentage based on the average number of named storms, it would be as follows:

Since '95, 57% of named storms became hurricanes, 28% of named storms became major hurricanes, and 2% became category five.

If you subtract 1997 from those averages, 58%, 28%, and 2%, respectively.

Since 2000: 51%, 25%, and 3%, respectively.
Since 2002: 47%, 26%, and 5%, respectively.

Still, category five is very rare.