Model plots for W.Caribbean,(Not a test)

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL902005) ON 20050607 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050607 1800 050608 0600 050608 1800 050609 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 16.0N 85.5W 17.6N 85.2W 19.1N 85.1W 20.6N 85.6W
BAMM 16.0N 85.5W 17.2N 85.6W 18.1N 85.7W 19.1N 85.9W
A98E 16.0N 85.5W 16.2N 85.5W 16.6N 85.5W 17.2N 85.2W
LBAR 16.0N 85.5W 16.5N 85.4W 17.4N 85.5W 18.5N 86.0W
SHIP 20KTS 23KTS 26KTS 30KTS
DSHP 20KTS 23KTS 26KTS 30KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050609 1800 050610 1800 050611 1800 050612 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 22.2N 86.5W 25.7N 88.6W 30.0N 90.2W 34.8N 90.6W
BAMM 20.3N 86.3W 24.1N 86.9W 28.7N 88.0W 32.9N 88.8W
A98E 17.9N 84.5W 19.1N 82.9W 20.3N 82.3W 19.4N 82.5W
LBAR 19.7N 86.9W 22.7N 88.6W 26.3N 89.5W 29.3N 89.8W
SHIP 34KTS 38KTS 38KTS 28KTS
DSHP 34KTS 38KTS 38KTS 28KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.0N LONCUR = 85.5W DIRCUR = 0DEG SPDCUR = 0KT
LATM12 = 16.0N LONM12 = 85.5W DIRM12 = 360DEG SPDM12 = 0KT
LATM24 = 16.0N LONM24 = 85.5W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


Now it's a real deal as the header says (AL902005).

[lilbump3000]

So this offically makes this 90L.INVEST?

[cycloneye]

So this offically makes this 90L.INVEST?

Yes it's a precursor for an invest to be up.

[PTrackerLA]

Man this is all moving so fast. But just look at a visible sat loop and you can cleary see that things are starting to come together.

[canegrl04]

Here comes Arlene

[dhweather]

I love A98E !!!!

[skysummit]

Here comes Arlene

Think so??? Hmm....

[Steve]

>>I love A98E !!!!

You were supposed to be from Florida to type that .

Steve

[Wpwxguy]

IMO this may very well become Arlene. I'm excited about it, the first real activity of the season.

[PTrackerLA]

I'm excited as well. Chances are it won't be a significant storm but just something for us storm lovers to track.

[Air Force Met]

Here comes Arlene

I think you better slow down on that thinking a little. She ain't here yet. A TD is certainly possible but given the shear the sysem will have to move through (unless it decides to move west...which means it hits land)...it's going to have a tough time developing into a TS. It's Arlene is going to come from this system...she better do it quick.

[senorpepr]

[PTrackerLA]

Those tracks are darn close to home. Yowza...

[cycloneye]

Those tracks are darn close to home. Yowza...

But PT it will not be a formidable hurricane if it goes that way only from TD to a minimal Tropical Storm. But you need rain right over there?

[Steve]

>>I think you better slow down on that thinking a little. She ain't here yet. A TD is certainly possible but given the shear the sysem will have to move through (unless it decides to move west...which means it hits land)...it's going to have a tough time developing into a TS. It's Arlene is going to come from this system...she better do it quick.

I certainly agree AFM, *but* the relationship of the shear to the storm isn't necessarily a bad thing in this case. Until the ridge builds overtop (at least as progged by some of the models), the system will be in an entrance/lifting quadrant as well it will be should it move further north. With northerly shear present to the system's east then, and a trof to the west (NW Gulf), that would also be a ventilation quadrant. Just the same, a weak tropical storm, maybe heavily weighted on its east and maybe southeast) possibly hitting the MS or AL Gulf coast isn't that much of a storm. A little rain, a little breeze, a little surf. Personally, I don't think the waters in the northern Gulf can support a whole lot at this time anyway. This is a dress rehearsal if that.

Steve

[loon]

It seems that when the models start converging, people start thinking more serious about it. I was (to myself) thinking a CAT1 from LA/FL, (I know nice wide area, heh) but I have to *still* agree with AFM that shear is going to kill this thing or at least inhibit a storm from growing too much, but I am starting to wonder now. We see every year the models flopping all over more than 48 hrs out so I'll wait for consistent runs....interesting start no matter what!

cheers,
loon

[Javlin]

The waters in this region of the GOM Steve have the highest SST's that tongue all the way to your house.AFM's point is well taken on the shear a little TS up this would not be so bad.

[Steve]

But what you have to remember is the relationship (e.g. positioning) of the storm to that shear. Just because there's an upper level low or a jet nearby doesn't mean it's going to destory a system. Often these features enhance them considerably. Bastardi taught me that one over the years of watching his videos when I did. You draw the cross and the regions 1 and 4 (SW and NE) are upward/lifting motion quadrants while 2 and 3 are the sinking quadrants. Obviously a storm isn't gonig to bust a 80k shear zone, but if it's juxtaposed just right, the outflow can get quite enhanced by the proximity of the storm to the shear zones.

Steve

[Steve]

>>The waters in this region of the GOM Steve have the highest SST's that tongue all the way to your house.AFM's point is well taken on the shear a little TS up this would not be so bad.

There's been that tongue there since the spring kicked into high gear. But it's still not all that. The waters are maybe 27-29 degrees and have recently cooled off a bit with all the rainfall we've been having. They can support development and subsistence but they're not going to brew up any Cat 3's or anything.

Steve

[Air Force Met]

I certainly agree AFM, *but* the relationship of the shear to the storm isn't necessarily a bad thing in this case. Until the ridge builds overtop (at least as progged by some of the models), the system will be in an entrance/lifting quadrant as well it will be should it move further north. With northerly shear present to the system's east then, and a trof to the west (NW Gulf), that would also be a ventilation quadrant. Just the same, a weak tropical storm, maybe heavily weighted on its east and maybe southeast) possibly hitting the MS or AL Gulf coast isn't that much of a storm. A little rain, a little breeze, a little surf. Personally, I don't think the waters in the northern Gulf can support a whole lot at this time anyway. This is a dress rehearsal if that. Steve

It will be in a divergent area...but it is going to have to move through a strong shearing environment in about 36-48 hours. In order for the system to get ventilated from the divergent quad...it needs to still be in only about 20 kts of shear or so. 300 MB winds appear to be on order of 35-40 kts in the path of the system....with one area of 50 kts. That's not ventilating...that's ripping. It will have to make it through the trof axis intact. If it can...then it has a chance to get ventilated on the western edge of the upper ridge forecast to be over Florida in a few days.

At LEAST it's something to look at. I'll take this over nothing any day. How 'bout you?