GFS & CMC Model Runs,Gomers have to watch

[TampaFl]

Interesting model runs for later in the week. Both might be "out to lunch" on the strength-especially the CMC with strong tropical storm near Tampa on Sunday I know these will change - thoughts and comments welcomed.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-b ... =Animation

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-b ... =Animation

Robert

[AussieMark]

its hard to speculate on the strength of a system when we don't have one as of yet


---Mark---

[Dean4Storms]

We will have to wait and see. Even the UKMET hints at a GOM low albeit not nearly as developed as the GFS and CMC. That low down in the SW Carib. is beginning to get my attention now that the models are beginning to show consistancy. All we need now is to begin to see some sustained and deepening convection over the western Carib.


It is too early to speculate on strength and direction or much of anything at all untill we see some development and a surface closed low form. Models are a useful tool, but they are only one tool and can sometimes leave you out to dry if you depend on that one tool alone in forecasting.

[cycloneye]

GFS 6z run shows a deep low in the gulf.

[Dean4Storms]

Yea but, look at the date and you will probably get the same doubts I'm getting that by Friday we have a TS in the GOM. Unless some rapid development and movement by a low begins to occur there is no way this is going on by Friday in the North-Central GOM originating from the low in the Pacific.

Sounds far-fetched by Friday. Think the GFS drank too much Coffee this AM.

[cycloneye]

Yea but, look at the date and you will probably get the same doubts I'm getting that by Friday we have a TS in the GOM. Unless some rapid development and movement by a low begins to occur there is no way this is going on by Friday in the North-Central GOM originating from the low in the Pacific.

Sounds far-fetched by Friday. Think the GFS drank too much Coffee this AM.

Yes the models change run after run and that is why we have to take these grafics with a grain of salt.But what we have to look for is a definite trend from all the models one way or another. So far some of the global models are in consensus about a system in the gulf but now let's see if those drop the system or the trend towards a deep low continues in next runs.

[jabber]

also remeber that a lot of the models spin up early season 'ghost' lows. Lets see if we get a trend going.

[ALhurricane]

It would be, in my opinion, very hard for anything to develop in the Caribbean or GOM anytime soon. Current water vapor imagery shows the TUTT (Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough) in place across the Caribbean. What this means is that the upper level winds are very hostile to any development as there is a great deal of wind shear.

The GFS tries to develop and organize a low over the next several days while dealing with 30-40kts of upper level shear. Not too likely in my opinion...especially anything in the Gulf of Mexico. By 72-84 hours...an upper ridge is progged to build into the E Caribbean so conditions would be more favorable there, but models do have a tendency to weaken the TUTT too quickly.

[HurryKane]

Ignunt Weather Weenie question: what altitudes (or temperature markers, or whatever is used to delineate these) signify low, middle, and upper level regions?

[cycloneye]

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
VERY INTERESTING SOLUTIONS WERE DISCOVERED ON MY SHIFT TONIGHT FROM
JUST ABOUT ALL OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS. GFS SHOWS A VERY
IMPRESSIVE CLOSED SURFACE LOW IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TRACKING
NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. CANADIAN GEM...ECMWF...
DGEX...AND NOGAPS SHOW SIMILAR SOLUTIONS BUT MUCH WEAKER AND TAKE
THE FEATURE IN ALL DIFFERENT DIRECTIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO. WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE CONSISTENCY BEFORE JUMPING
FULLY ONBOARD ONE OF THE BANDWAGONS...ESPECIALLY ONE THAT WILL
HIGHLY INFLUENCE CENTRAL ALABAMA'S WEATHER. REGARDLESS FEEL FAIRLY
CONFIDENT THAT WHETHER AN OPEN GULF WAVE OR A CLOSED SURFACE LOW
MOVES NEAR THE AREA...WE WILL SEE PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. SO
HAVE KEPT HIGH END CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST DURING THE WEEKEND AND
LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES ONE TO TWO DEGREES FOR NOW. WILL MAKE MORE
CHANGES IF NEEDED BASED ON FUTURE MODEL RUNS...DEFINITELY AN
INTERESTING WEATHER FEATURE TO WATCH TO SEE HOW IT EVOLVES...IF IT
DOES.


The above from the NWS in Mobile discussion this morning.

[skysummit]

Here's New Orleans' Discussion:

.DISCUSSION...WET PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. WEAK TROUGHINESS ALOFT CONTINUES TO ALLOW SUBTLE
DISTURBANCES TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. THIS
COMBINED WITH A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS AT THE SURFACE
SUPPORTED BY THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR
MORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY. WEAK TRANSPORT WINDS
ALONG WITH INTERACTING LAKE AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES WILL ALSO
POSE A THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND URBAN FLOODING ISSUES AGAIN
TODAY. THE PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK PROVIDING FOR ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES OF RAIN OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. BY THE WEEKEND PERIOD...THE GFS IS STILL TAKING AN AREA
OF DISORGANIZED ENERGY OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN AND LIFTING IT INTO
THE GULF. WHILE INCONSISTENCIES REMAIN WITH THE OVERALL FORECAST
TREND OF THIS ENERGY...THIS COULD HAVE SOME ADDITIONAL IMPACT ON
THE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. FOR NOW...SOME CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN PLAY EVERYDAY THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

[dixiebreeze]

Most interesting, since I have family flying into Tampa from Oregon on Sunday Hope it stays at least mid-GOM. Are the reports the same from San Juan? I have a lot of confidence in PR forecasting.