Top 10 worst places for an extreme hurricane to strike?

[Huckster]

I ran across this potential hurricane damage table at http://info.insure.com/home/disaster/wo ... icane.html

It's hard for me to believe that an "extreme" hurricane for New Orleans would "only" yield $16.8 billion in possible losses. Same thing for Tampa, only $50 billion and for Galveston/Houston only $33.6 billion. And, given New Orleans' unique situation, how could its damage only be about $5 billion more than the damage in Mobile? Maybe these figures are for damage only in the cities and no the MSA's, but that doesn't explain the Galveston/Houston thing.

[Derek Ortt]

Numbers are bogus.

There is more than 15 billion to damage in NO

Ivan caused 10-12 billion in the Gulf coast, and its worst affects were in remote areas, with Pensacola suffering cat 1 winds. Yet, it still did that much damage

Remember, Andrew was only expected to cause 10 billion. Those numbers need to be multiplied by about a factor of 3-5 ebfore we see any accuracy

[HURAKAN]

No surprise for the Miami area.

[Pebbles]

Is it possible for a storm to remain a strong cat 3, might-est well a 4 or 5 to even hit Boston or New York? Thought they were a tad far north for that to ever happen. I also find the N.O. absurdly low. Most know that just the right hit from a 4 or 5 there is going to make Andrew look cheep. I really wish they could figure out a way to truly prevent the N.O. situation. And the way many ignored evacs with storms last year (yes many listened but many did not also)... the thought of lives lost is even scarier statistic.

[stormcloud]

Maybe the key word is "insured"

[Stratosphere747]

Maybe the key word is "insured"

Exactly Stormclould.

I doubt most people know what their policy really covers, including most business's

[TSmith274]

I had always heard that a "worst case scenario" for New Orleans could possibly be the most expensive natural disaster in the history of our country. Am I off base here?

edit: ah ha...I see "insured losses". That explains it. There are a lot of uninsured in New Orleans.

[george_r_1961]

Nice to see my area is in the top ten

[mobilebay]

mine too.

[TampaFl]

Same here (# 3 to be exact)

Robert

[AussieMark]

Also those figures could be on the low side as that article is nearly 3 years old.

Last updated Aug. 29, 2002

so in saying that its hard to compare it to last years hurricanes that hit not as big population centers as mentioned in the article


---Mark---

[Brent]

Is it possible for a storm to remain a strong cat 3, might-est well a 4 or 5 to even hit Boston or New York? Thought they were a tad far north for that to ever happen.

It could... it would be moving at 30-40 mph. If the Long Island Hurricane in 1938 were to hit today, it would be very bad(back then, that area wasn't nearly as populated).

[alicia-w]

cat 1 winds in pensacola? have you seen the damage there? i'm not talking photos, i'm asking, have you actually seen the Pensacola area? The stats may say one thing, but Pensacola got more than Cat 1 winds....

[Brent]

cat 1 winds in pensacola? have you seen the damage there? i'm not talking photos, i'm asking, have you actually seen the Pensacola area? The stats may say one thing, but Pensacola got more than Cat 1 winds....

I agree with Derek but I haven't seen it personally. The wind reports just don't match. Peak sustained winds at Pensacola NAS(which was closer to the eyewall than the rest of the city proper): 76 mph, gust to 93 mph. PNS(The airport in the city): 67 mph sustained, gust to 87 mph. The Cat 3 winds were confined to a small area between the eye and the AL/FL border around Perdido Key.

A lot of the damage I saw that was really bad was from surge. The storm produced High-end Cat 4 surge because it had been a 4 or a 5 for days until hours before landfall.

From the NHC report:

In addition, assuming a typical outward slope to the eyewall, the narrow band of strongest winds at landfall likely occurred over Perdido Key and Perdido Bay, which would have been to the west of the Pensacola Naval Air Station and to the east of the Florida Coastal Monitoring Program portable wind tower at Gulf Shores, Alabama.

That's where the 105 kt-120 mph sustained winds were... they dropped off significantly beyond that.

[Derek Ortt]

yes, we have been through this on many occassions.

You all can discount the NOAA SFMR and H-Wind analyses, but your readings are not based upon any type of science at all. The official damage surveys, which were sent to me by a Pensacola newspaper did indicate only cat 1 winds, and not even strong cat 1 winds, for Pensacola, regardless as to what damage occurred to isolated structures. Furthermore, I have also been told by the same newspaper, that the vast majority of the damage was tidal surge, not the winds

In short, if anyone here decides to stay through a cat 1 or 2 because they do not think it is severe and they receive the worst, don't come crying to me about your plight afterwards, as I will not care at all. You have been given an example as to how devastating sustained cat 1 winds truly are. If you want to believe those were cat 3, and stay through a 105 m.p.h. hurricane as you think you know more than NOAA, be prepared to have to fight for your life if you do experience the maximum winds in that narrow portion of the NE eye wall

[cyclonaut]

Its safe to say that parts of Pensacola received winds a little higher than CAT 1..

I have been follwing hurricanes long enough to be able to tell the difference.

[Brent]

The problem of course is if you have a SW-NE moving hurricane that's moving at a good clip like Charley, if you go to Orlando, your still going to get slammed. They had 90-100 mph winds right? You might be safe from surge, but that'd be about it.

[Droop12]

I agree with Derek somewhat on the whole Ivan windspeed deal. He's got science to back up his thinking. I dont have much but I recieved some video from Pensacola during the storm taken from a storm chaser and its quite impressive. I doubt the winds are only 90mph . I bet if anyone else saw it they'd agree. But Im not going to argue...Have a good one ya'll.

[baygirl_1]

Is it possible that some of the damage in Pensacola-- that is leading some folks to believe sustained winds were higher than Cat 1-- was caused by tornadoes? I know my father, who was an amateur meteorologist, always talked about the number of tornadoes a hurricane can spawn in its eyewall as well as in spiral bands.

[Brent]

Is it possible that some of the damage in Pensacola-- that is leading some folks to believe sustained winds were higher than Cat 1-- was caused by tornadoes? I know my father, who was an amateur meteorologist, always talked about the number of tornadoes a hurricane can spawn in its eyewall as well as in spiral bands.

There were several tornadoes reported... back when Opal rolled through here we had sustained winds close to Cat 1 strength with higher gusts, but the extent of the damage was so widespread that I was thinking there were tornadoes that hit... never could tell though.