Western Caribbean Area the one to watch according to models

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cycloneye
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Western Caribbean Area the one to watch according to models

#1 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 06, 2005 2:13 pm

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The GFS shows more prominent the western Caribbean area than any other area of the Basin at the 12z run.

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Last edited by cycloneye on Mon Jun 06, 2005 3:18 pm, edited 5 times in total.
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#2 Postby PTrackerLA » Mon Jun 06, 2005 2:15 pm

:eek: :eek:

Can you say June storm for the gulf??
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#3 Postby Wnghs2007 » Mon Jun 06, 2005 2:16 pm

Very interesting and I believe this system has been on several runs of the GFS only to be lost the next run and then a run or to later to resurface. It will be very interesting to see if anything can come from the disturbance that is down there. If anything does form then it would be a threat to anywhere along the gulf coast. Also there probally looks to be some shear as most of the convection is off to the east of the center.

All in all just something to watch at the moment. It still has a while before it develops so lets see how things develop if they do at all.
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#4 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 06, 2005 2:18 pm

12z GFS has backed down on a low pressure in the Atlantic just north of the Leewards intensifying.
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#5 Postby Brent » Mon Jun 06, 2005 2:56 pm

Is that the disturbance currently south of PR?
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#6 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 06, 2005 2:58 pm

Brent wrote:Is that the disturbance currently south of PR?


Yes 12z GFS has backed down on that one.But remember there will be more runs ahead and this changes run after run.
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#7 Postby KatDaddy » Mon Jun 06, 2005 3:27 pm

From the Hou-Gal AFD:

NEXT WEEK MAY PROVE INTERESTING IF THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE CLOSE TO
BE CORRECT. BOTH MODELS DEVELOP THE TROPICAL SYSTEM OVER THE
CARIBBEAN AND MOVE IT INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THE MODELS THAT FAR OUT...WILL KEEP THE ISOLATED
POPS IN PLACE.
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#8 Postby Anonymous » Mon Jun 06, 2005 3:35 pm

Why does it do that??? It looks like it heads for Louisiana and then suddenly makes a right turn and crosses the Peninsula of Fla
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#9 Postby Brent » Mon Jun 06, 2005 3:44 pm

Jekyhe32210 wrote:Why does it do that??? It looks like it heads for Louisiana and then suddenly makes a right turn and crosses the Peninsula of Fla


Strange... unless there's a ridge to the north.
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#10 Postby canegrl04 » Mon Jun 06, 2005 3:48 pm

Arlene,is that you?
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#11 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 06, 2005 7:13 pm

Image

18z run of GFS shows a 1004 mb low in the western caribbean.
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