Two Named Storms for June?? (Naso's thoughts)

[Anonymous]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I was looking at the models and here is my take...

Something will be occuring between the 8th and the 20th. I don't know quite what it is yet. It might be a tropical wave moving through the Yucatan Channel, or a Tropical Low north of Puerto Rico. The models have been consistant though, so I am guessing by June 10th, something will be somewhere. I am wondering if the wave in the Eastern Caribbean may be the system...



So, I think potentially, part of the wave near the islands will move north over Puerto Rico, and potentially become a system and be a fish (ATLEAST IN THE SHORT TERM). Then, a piece of that wave, and the disturbed weather in the SW Caribbean become organized enough to form a low, that eventually ends up north of the Yucatan as a storm in 8-11 days. I know, a lot has to come into play, but time will tell.

In any case, we should have things to at least keep an eye on until June 20th.

[StormChasr]

Naw

[Wpwxguy]

Yep....................It could happen, nobody can say yes or no. And Mike did say potentially. The potential will be there, but only time will tell. Now how much more scientific can I get with my analysis. LOL

[Anonymous]

Looks possible as most of the models show something north of PR and at least 2 show something moving into the Gulf. The PR system is shown in long term GFS to escape safely into the atlantic but the Atlantic High looks to be strong in the mid term and would have to weaken or slip off to the East as the GFS is showing or it may not be that easy and it is the GFS long term. Do you think there is a chance for both the PR low and the GOMEX low to form?

[dhweather]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I was looking at the models and here is my take...

Something will be occuring between the 8th and the 20th. I don't know quite what it is yet. It might be a tropical wave moving through the Yucatan Channel, or a Tropical Low north of Puerto Rico. The models have been consistant though, so I am guessing by June 10th, something will be somewhere. I am wondering if the wave in the Eastern Caribbean may be the system...



So, I think potentially, part of the wave near the islands will move north over Puerto Rico, and potentially become a system and be a fish (ATLEAST IN THE SHORT TERM). Then, a piece of that wave, and the disturbed weather in the SW Caribbean become organized enough to form a low, that eventually ends up north of the Yucatan as a storm in 8-11 days. I know, a lot has to come into play, but time will tell.

In any case, we should have things to at least keep an eye on until June 20th.

Remember - I'm holding you to it!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The one in the Eastern Caribbean is possible. When the upper low moves west then the energy of the tropical waves moves into the central Atlantic. Then you would have a Bill like storm. The Gulf system is not really thing to support anything like it.

[skysummit]

Wow....that's one hell of a forecast. I know it's not a "forecast", but you know what I mean. If you're right in either case, I'll greatly respect you!

[HurryKane]

Wow....that's one hell of a forecast. I know it's not a "forecast", but you know what I mean.

It's a thoughtcast!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

If I where to do the same thing It would be called!!!

A WISHCAST

[dhweather]

If I where to do the same thing It would be called!!!

A WISHCAST

Nobody here will call a post that clearly lines out why someone thinks
a system will develop a "wishcast".

Diagrams, graphics and discussion is one thing - calling out a LLC
out of the blue is another.

[Anonymous]

If I where to do the same thing It would be called!!!

A WISHCAST

It is very possible though as NWS offices along the Gulf coast as well as Puerto Rico are keeping it in mind as a possibillity. That being said, I dont consider this a wishcast IMHO at all! 2 seperate tropical systems is somewhat unusual as most years, we see none-but all indications are including DR Grays prediction and NOAAS this year may be extra-ordinary... Maybe these are the first signs of what we have to look forward too Then again, these systems could suddenly go ...

POOF

BTW here is the tread were these forecast discussions mentioned these possible systems incase ya havent seen it... http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 0&start=20

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I said that there is a god for saking low level low for a short time. As for this system it appears that Floydbuster could be on to something. The Gfs shows the development of this system. I think as the upper low moves off to the west it will help to spin this system.

[LaBreeze]

True, there does seem to be some sense to it. Time will tell.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The Gfs model shows that this system will pull north then turn west-northwest after the upper low moves away. The upper low could also help the outflow over the system. I think this is by far the most interested system so far this season. I think Floydbuster is right.


I don't think the Energy in the southwest Caribbean will become anything. That is still a long shot. But the 18z gfs shows doe's show something weak.

[george_r_1961]

It is possible. was looking at models sunday afternoon and something could indeed pop up down there over the next few days.

[Anonymous]

PLEASE! dont let a storm form as this will be a predictor of what will happen all season long and all storms will be fish!!!

[Huckster]

PLEASE! dont let a storm form as this will be a predictor of what will happen all season long and all storms will be fish!!!

I am not trying to be rude, but that's nonsense. You cannot discount the entire season simply on the basis of a system that would already be an extreme anomaly (eastern Caribbean development in JUNE). On that reasoning, the rest of the 1992 hurricane season should have brought more severe landfalling Cape Verde hurricanes and no storms would have hit anywhere in 1999. I don't find the "first storm of the season" thing convincing, as there are plenty of exceptions to it.

[AussieMark]

u never know. We could get something. Its funny that this name set has produced a June or earlier storm 3 of the 4 times its previously been used.

i.e

1981: Arlene (May 6), Bret (June 29)
1993: Arlene (June 18)
1999: Arlene (June 11)


---Mark---

[GalvestonDuck]

Remember - I'm holding you to it!

Remember - it's not official. It is, however, a nicely explained and illustrated thought. Therefore, Matt, it is not a wishcast either.

Mike -- very interesting.

[dhweather]

Remember - I'm holding you to it!

Remember - it's not official. It is, however, a nicely explained and illustrated thought. Therefore, Matt, it is not a wishcast either.

Mike -- very interesting.

Nah, in a thread last week, he said June 13-ish, a gut feel, so I'm picking on him. It's all in fun, I'm sure he knows that. Ditto for Jan.