Long Island/New England Becoming Due for Major Hurricane

[donsutherland1]

Based on historic climatology, I believe that Long Island and part of New England (maybe Rhode Island?) is likely due for a major hurricane to make landfall at sometime in the next 15 years. Since 1851, the following hurricanes have made landfall in this region as Category 3 storms. The states listed all experienced Category 3 winds:

1869 Hurricane #6 (RI/MA)
1938 Hurricane #4 (NY, CT, RI, MA)
1944 Hurricane #7 (NY, CT, RI, MA): also impacted NC and VA with Category 3 or above winds
1954 Carol (NY, CT, RI)
1954 Edna (MA)
1960 Donna (NY): also impacted FL and NC with Category 3 or above winds
1985 Gloria (NY): also impacted NC with Category 3 or above winds

Average number of years before major hurricane impacts:

CT: 51.3 years (Note: Long Island has helped "shelter" CT)
MA: 38.5 years
NY: 30.8 years (Mostly Long Island)
RI: 38.5 years

States where a major hurricane has not struck for the average number of years between strikes or longer:

MA: Last major hurricane: Edna (1954)/Longest period 85 years
RI: Last major hurricane: Carol (1954)/Longest period: 69 years

Affected Areas:

3/5 (60%) of major hurricanes that impacted Massachusetts also impacted Long Island with major hurricane winds. 3/4 (75%) of major hurricanes that impacted Rhode Island also brought major hurricane winds to Long Island. 3/3 (100%) of major hurricanes that impacted CT also impacted Long Island. After this season, CT could reach its average period before major hurricane strikes. Relative to both averages and the longest period between major hurricane strikes, Rhode Island could be at highest risk.

Hurricane storm surge maps for Long Island can be found at: storm surge maps for Long Island can be found at: http://www2.sunysuffolk.edu/mandias/38h ... _maps.html

Overall, with a growing share of the Northeast becoming due, relative to averages, for a major hurricane strike and the frequency of such storms also impacting Long Island, residents in all those areas should not be complacent.