Typhoon Nesat (04W)

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It is looking really powerful now. 910 millibars is like 925 in the Atlatnic? So with the pin hole eye in all. I'm going to say this is around like the Jtwc said.

[senorpepr]

FWIW, the official advisory has 100kt increasing to 110kt over the next 12 hours. (one-min avg winds)

WTPQ20 RJTD 031800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0504 NESAT (0504)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 031800UTC 14.1N 131.8E GOOD
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 041800UTC 16.8N 130.3E 80NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 095KT
48HF 051800UTC 19.6N 130.8E 150NM 70%
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 095KT
72HF 061800UTC 22.2N 131.5E 220NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT =

[senorpepr]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the JMA products.

Impressive.

JMA has winds up to 110kt while JTWC has the winds at 125kt. The potential is still there for a little more strengthening as it rounds the western periphery of the subtropical ridge. The key is the cold front moving through Japan. This feature is helping to weaken the subtropical ridge just slightly to help turn Nesat northward sooner. However, if the front decides to stall, this may increase the chances of Nesat making a landfall in central Japan, although I believe those chances are limited.

Also, FWIW, there's a pretty strong area of upper-level convergence over Luzon in the Philippines. Should the front over Japan stall long enough to keep the typhoon headed west-northwesterly for an addition day, interaction with this area will also help to quickly weaken the storm with additional shear.

Regardless, I would expect Nesat to either remain at intensity for a little while longer, possibly reaching super typhoon status briefly, before rapidly weakening as it interacts with the front. I do, however, expect some poor weather for central Japan in a few days -- mainly heavy rainfall and gusty winds being the challenge.

We shall see.

[HurricaneBill]

Hopefully, 2005 will not be like 2004 in regards to landfalling typhoons on Japan.

Japan was the Florida of the WPAC.

[senorpepr]

Hopefully, 2005 will not be like 2004 in regards to landfalling typhoons on Japan.

Japan was the Florida of the WPAC.

Actually, Japan doubled Florida's landfalls. Regardless, it wasn't pretty.

[HurricaneBill]

Hopefully, 2005 will not be like 2004 in regards to landfalling typhoons on Japan.

Japan was the Florida of the WPAC.

Actually, Japan doubled Florida's landfalls. Regardless, it wasn't pretty.

Fortunately, none of the typhoons were intense at landfall (Category 3 or higher).

Nevertheless, repeated typhoon landfalls is not good.

The last intense typhoon to landfall on Japan was Typhoon Bart in 1999. Bart landfalled as a Category 3 (110KT).

The last Category 4 to landfall on Japan was Typhoon Violet (115KT) in 1996.

The last and only Category 5 to landfall on Japan was Super Typhoon Vera (140KT) in 1959. Vera remains one of the deadliest typhoons to hit Japan, killing 5238.

In 1995, Japan escaped a potential disaster as Category 5 Super Typhoon Oscar (140KT) threatened to make landfall as a Category 5.

Fortunately, Oscar veered off to the NE passing just off the coast of Japan as a strong Category 4 (125KT).

[HURAKAN]

Hopefully, 2005 will not be like 2004 in regards to landfalling typhoons on Japan.

Japan was the Florida of the WPAC.

Actually, Japan doubled Florida's landfalls. Regardless, it wasn't pretty.

Fortunately, none of the typhoons were intense at landfall (Category 3 or higher).

Nevertheless, repeated typhoon landfalls is not good.

The last intense typhoon to landfall on Japan was Typhoon Bart in 1999. Bart landfalled as a Category 3 (110KT).

The last Category 4 to landfall on Japan was Typhoon Violet (115KT) in 1996.

The last and only Category 5 to landfall on Japan was Super Typhoon Vera (140KT) in 1959. Vera remains one of the deadliest typhoons to hit Japan, killing 5238.

In 1995, Japan escaped a potential disaster as Category 5 Super Typhoon Oscar (140KT) threatened to make landfall as a Category 5.

Fortunately, Oscar veered off to the NE passing just off the coast of Japan as a strong Category 4 (125KT).

REALLY GOOD RESEARCH!

[senorpepr]

Well... Nesat is beginning to weaken (down to 115kt...) as she begins pulling northward. It doesn't look like Nesat will become our first super typhoon of the 2005 WPAC season. JTWC expects continued weakening over the next few days as Nesat becomes extratropical.

[HurricaneBill]

The latest for the first super typhoon to develop was Super Typhoon Bart in September 1999. Bart was the only super typhoon that year.

1974 had NO super typhoons develop. However, there is a lot of speculation that Typhoon Gloria may have reached super typhoon intensity prior to landfall on the Philippines in November 1974.

The last recon into Gloria was 10 hours prior to landfall and it indicated the pressure had fallen to 931 mb and Gloria was quickly strengthening. Winds were 120KTS.

[HURAKAN]

WTPN31 PGTW 042100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 04W (NESAT) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
041800Z3 --- NEAR 16.6N3 130.4E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.6N3 130.4E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z1 --- 18.0N9 130.4E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z4 --- 19.7N7 131.1E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z2 --- 21.5N8 132.4E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z5 --- 23.4N9 133.3E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z6 --- 27.1N0 133.9E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z7 --- 30.4N7 137.6E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z8 --- 37.1N1 145.4E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
042100Z7 POSITION NEAR 16.9N6 130.4E8.
TYPHOON (TY) 04W (NESAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 595 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. A 041709Z AMSR-E PASS AND EARLIER QUIKSCAT
DATA SHOW SUPPRESSED WINDS IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO
EASTERLY SHEAR AND CONVERGENT FLOW ALOFT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z IS 45 FEET. REFER TO WWPW31 PHNC FOR
ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050300Z8,
050900Z4, 051500Z1 AND 052100Z8.//
NNNN



IS DANTE'S PEAK NOT OVER**?

**www.typhoon2000.ph names systems that enter the Philippine area and Nesat is named there Dante.

[James]

It looks like Nesat's circulaton is becoming exposed. It kinda reminds me of Hurricane Bertha back in 1996.

[HurricaneBill]

It looks like Nesat's circulaton is becoming exposed. It kinda reminds me of Hurricane Bertha back in 1996.

Bertha was an interesting storm. It had weakened from a Category 3 to a Category 1. The center was exposed and most of the convection was gone on the west side.

Then in about 12 hours before landfall, convection wrapped around the center and Bertha quickly reintensified to a Category 2.

We often talk about hurricanes that fall apart prior to landfall. Some, however, will intensify prior to landfall if conditions suddenly become more favorable.

Examples: Cleo 1964; Claudette 2003; Alex 2004;

[HURAKAN]

Shear is taking a huge bite from Nesat.

[senorpepr]

I've updated the S2K Worldwide Tropics page to refresh some old links concerning Nesat. Also, since there appears to be a chance for some nasty weather associated with Nesat hitting central Japan, I've activited the alert page. This page has links to all the advisories, tracking maps, surface observations, and even some webcams in Tokyo. Of course, if you come across something you'd like to see on the page, feel free to pass it to me via PM.

http://tropicalupdates.nhcwx.com/
http://tropicalupdates.nhcwx.com/wpac.htm
http://tropicalupdates.nhcwx.com/alert.htm

[senorpepr]

I've updated the S2K Worldwide Tropics page to refresh some old links concerning Nesat. Also, since there appears to be a chance for some nasty weather associated with Nesat hitting central Japan, I've activited the alert page. This page has links to all the advisories, tracking maps, surface observations, and even some webcams in Tokyo. Of course, if you come across something you'd like to see on the page, feel free to pass it to me via PM.

http://tropicalupdates.nhcwx.com/
http://tropicalupdates.nhcwx.com/wpac.htm
http://tropicalupdates.nhcwx.com/alert.htm

Look at that eye... it's grown large!!!

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/archdat/trop ... LATEST.jpg

[HurricaneBill]

Is Nesat reintensifying again?

[HURAKAN]

JUST ONE WORD: "BEAUTIFUL"

[senorpepr]

Dvorak estimates have climbed back up to 6.0.

JTWC has her at 115kt and reaching 125kt over the next 24 hours.
JMA has her at 95kt and reaching 105kt over the next 24 hours.
(all wind speeds reflected in a one-minute average)

[James]

It looks as though the eye is becoming less distinct again. Nesat isn't looking quite as organised as she did a few hours ago. Nevertheless, she is still an impressive system.

[senorpepr]

Nesat looks like she's finally losing the battle. Cooler SSTs and higher shear is helping Nesat to weaken. Expect an extratropical system in a few days as Nesat winds down from it's current intensity of 100 mph (via JTWC / 1-min avg winds). Central Japan (ie Tokyo) still looks like it'll have the best chance of rainshowers and windy conditions.

http://tropicalupdates.nhcwx.com/
http://tropicalupdates.nhcwx.com/wpac.htm
http://tropicalupdates.nhcwx.com/alert.htm