5:30 TWO=Broad Low Pressure Forms in NW Caribbean

[senorpepr]

The shear is going down. In I don't call 10 to 15 knot shear that unfavable. But its a wait in see.

Actually, over the system itself, shear is 20-30 knots and is increasing by 5 knots -- that is unfavorable, especially for a disorganized area of convection. Granted, shear behind the elongate low is lowering, that isn't improving the chances for development.

[x-y-no]

I use LLC for a tropical area of low pressure at the lower levels of the Atmosphere(5,000 feet or below=850 millibar level) Remember tropical storm Bill of a few years while its tropical wave was still over the Yact. It transported the energy north into a curve ark. Which is what we see sort of north of Cuba.

The shear is going down. In I don't call 10 to 15 knot shear that unfavable. But its a wait in see.

Well, then you're using "LLC" differently than everybody else does - LLC means there's a closed circulation at the surface.

There is no LLC in this case - at least as of yet.

Jan

[cycloneye]

Matt please help me and the members pinpoint where you say there is a LLC (Low Level Circulation) as I dont see it.

[skysummit]

Is it the are that's on the western most edge of the convection? When looking at the last 20 Visible images in a loop, I can sort of make out some kind of rotation there, but nothing to fuss over.

[msbee]

A broad area of low pressure does not an LLC make!!!!! Two TOTALLY DIFFERENT things!!!!

thank you. this is what I meant in the other thread about making mountaiins out of mole hills.
or seeing things that aren't there.
In all honesty, it is hard to take sometimes.

[Dean4Storms]

There is no LLC at this time, a broad area of low pressure doesn't necessarily mean it is closed off (circulation), there is a difference.

Still, at least we have something to keep an eye on, the ETA wants to try and move a low toward the panhandle from this system, the GFS toward the Tampa area. Whether it forms into a TC is anyone's guess at this time.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

What in the world is going on. I just said that a area of low pressure is near the surface. In that is what I said was a LLC. I don't understand why the fight is about?

[Air Force Met]

A broad area of low pressure does not an LLC make!!!!! Two TOTALLY DIFFERENT things!!!!

I'm glad somebody said it. It's not a LLC. It's a broad area of low pressure....and from what I can tell from sat and the obs...it's not closed like a LLC. Further more, it's not gonna close off to form a LLC any time soon. The heaviest convection is a good 250 miles from where the area of lowest pressure is. There is not even a shower within 100 miles of the pressure center. Bottom line...it's something to occupy our time for now...but don't hold your breath. There still will be an upper trof over the eastern GOM with a lot of s.westerlies. The shear is not going to decrease where it needs too...which is where the tstms are. The only hope this thing has is if a LLC can pop under the convection...inependent of the current area of low pressure. The current area of low pressure will turn into nada. If a LLC does pop...I give it very little chance of lasting for a length of time because the shear is too great over that area.

[Air Force Met]

What in the world is going on. I just said that a area of low pressure is near the surface. In that is what I said was a LLC. I don't understand why the fight is about?

An area of low pressure is not a LLC. A LLC has defined westerly winds on the south side of the low and is a closed circulation. "A BROAD AND DISORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE" is not a LLC by definition. A LLC is a hop-skip and a jump away from a TD...the former is a long...long way away from a TD.

edited for an oops...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I use LLC for a tropical area of low pressure at the lower levels of the Atmosphere(5,000 feet or below=850 millibar level) Remember tropical storm Bill of a few years while its tropical wave was still over the Yact. It transported the energy north into a curve ark. Which is what we see sort of north of Cuba.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

What in the world is going on. I just said that a area of low pressure is near the surface. In that is what I said was a LLC. I don't understand why the fight is about?

An area of low pressure is not a LLC. A LLC has defined westerly winds on the south side of the low and is a closed circulation. "A BROAD AND DISORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE" is not a LLC by definition. A LLC is a hop-skip and a jump away from a TD...the former is a long...long way away from a TD.

edited for an oops...

I never said that this thing would ever be a depression. Just that it has a low pressure near the surface.

[StormChasr]

It is just a blob. No organization to it--just sending off lots of rain and T-storms, and will do so for a few days.

[Air Force Met]

I use LLC for a tropical area of low pressure at the lower levels of the Atmosphere(5,000 feet or below=850 millibar level) Remember tropical storm Bill of a few years while its tropical wave was still over the Yact. It transported the energy north into a curve ark. Which is what we see sort of north of Cuba.

I think the point is then you are using the definition wrong. Meteorologically...your definition is incorrect. That is why the fuss. Since this is a meteorological forum...most people go by the understood definitions. No big deal...just know for the future what the terms are. When you talk meteorology...you have to talk in the right terms. It's kinds like the Somalis calling the hail, "snow"...even though it was May and 70 degrees. To them it was snow...and it will always be snow...but we all know it was hail.

Now you know it's not a LLC...but a broad area of low pressure

[KatDaddy]

Broad Low pressure is just that, an area of lower pressure. A LLC is a more concentrated area of low pressure that contains a slight wind field.
Many LLCs can be seen with vis satellite.

The currently the is no LLC. The vis satellite indicates low level clouds streaming from SE to NW.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Yes I know that it is a broad area of surface or near the surface low pressure. In yes there is always a chance that it could form into a LLC.

[x-y-no]

I use LLC for a tropical area of low pressure at the lower levels of the Atmosphere(5,000 feet or below=850 millibar level) Remember tropical storm Bill of a few years while its tropical wave was still over the Yact. It transported the energy north into a curve ark. Which is what we see sort of north of Cuba.

If you would use the standard meaning of terms rather than making up your own, then there might be fewer disputes of this sort. Several of us have now pointed out that "LLC" has a specific meaning different from the one you offer.

If we can't agree on the meaning of terms, there's very little hope of communication.

Jan

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I use LLC for a tropical area of low pressure at the lower levels of the Atmosphere(5,000 feet or below=850 millibar level) Remember tropical storm Bill of a few years while its tropical wave was still over the Yact. It transported the energy north into a curve ark. Which is what we see sort of north of Cuba.

If you would use the standard meaning of terms rather than making up your own, then there might be fewer disputes of this sort. Several of us have now pointed out that "LLC" has a specific meaning different from the one you offer.

If we can't agree on the meaning of terms, there's very little hope of communication.

Jan

Wow!!! I said that it can form a LLC its a surface low pressure. Like the nhc said.

[wxman57]

Perhaps this screenshot may clear things up. Excuse the 256-color satellite overlay, but it helps to point out where the broad area of low pressure is. As has been stated, no LLC yet, just a very broad area of somewhat lower pressure. Wind shear is very high and will remain high until the system moves ashore into FL/GA on Sunday. However, I wouldn't rule out the formation of an LLC in the eastern Gulf before it moves inland. But with high southwest wind shear it probably won't have any convection over the center, so it probably won't be TD 1. It will likely produce southerly winds of 25-30 kts along the west coast of Florida Sat PM through Sunday, and lots of rain across FL and eventually into the GA/SC area. West of the low, light NE winds and no rain.


<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/disturb.gif">

[Cookiely]

For those of us who are ignorant (me) can you post an image of an LLC?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The LLC of tropical storm Dean.