Hints plentiful in NHC 2 p.m. Discussion....

[dixiebreeze]

Especially the dropping pressure in wave near the Antilles and in the S. Caribbean:

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 34W/35W S OF 12N MOVING W 15
KT. WAVE IS NOT WELL-DEFINED IN SATELLITE PICTURES AND THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON CONVECTION IN THE ITCZ. HOWEVER
COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THE WAVE WILL GET BETTER-DEFINED AS IT
HEADS WESTWARD ACROSS THE ATLC. A FEW ITCZ TSTMS ARE NEAR
8N36W.

TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 57W S OF 17N
MOVING W 20 KT. 24 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS OF 1-2 MB ARE OBSERVED
OVER SURINAME WITH LESSER FALLS IN BARBADOS. AN UPPER LOW IN
THE E CARIBBEAN IS PROVIDING LIFT/DIVERGENCE WHICH IS ENHANCING
THE WAVE'S CONVECTION. A WET FEW DAYS ARE LIKELY FOR THE E
CARIBBEAN AS THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER LOW AND TROPICAL WAVE
SHOULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCENTRATED IN
THE WINDWARD/LEEWARD ISLANDS S OF GUADELOUPE. AS THE WEATHER
SYSTEMS MOVE WESTWARD...A BIT MORE MOISTURE COULD WORK ITS WAY
UP TOWARD PUERTO RICO BY EARLY SUN WITH WET WEATHER LIKELY IN
THE ABC ISLANDS BY SAT AFTERNOON. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS BETWEEN 8N-12N FROM 53W-57W WITH OTHER WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS
S 15.5N WITHIN 75 NM OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W/72W S OF 17N MOVING
W 15 KT. ANY WAVE SIGNATURE IS MASKED BY THE FAST TRADES IN THE
LOW-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE COMBINED WITH IT BEING ON THE DRY
SIDE OF A NEARBY UPPER LOW. POSITION IS A COMBINATION OF
EXTRAPOLATION AND CONVECTION OVER S AMERICA.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N14W 9N23W 8N36W 11N55W. ISOLATED
MODERATE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 35W-47W. SCATTERED
MODERATE E OF 20W BETWEEN 7N-10.5N... PERHAPS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE NEXT WAVE OVER W AFRICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WHILE THE WESTERN GULF HAS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND GENERALLY
DRY WEATHER... A PERSISTENT SHARP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS OVER FLORIDA. THIS TROUGH IS
DRIFTING SLOWLY E ACROSS THE E GULF WITH BROAD UPPER DIFFLUENCE
COMBINED WITH DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE E OF THE TROUGH AXIS
CONTRIBUTING TO HEAVY RAIN/TSTMS. LITTLE CHANGE IS LIKELY FOR
SAT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH NEARBY... THOUGH SOME DRYING IS
POSSIBLE FROM S TO N OVER FLORIDA SUN AS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE IS
FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD AND THE TROUGH WEAKENS. FOR NOW
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE OVER FLORIDA S OF GAINESVILLE
WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS NEAR NAPLES. THE GFS TRIES TO DEVELOP
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL... WHICH IS CONSIDERED UNLIKELY AS THE MODEL
APPEARS TO BE SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK.

CARIBBEAN...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE GULF EXTENDS S THRU THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL TO N HONDURAS WITH A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE TO THE E
EXTENDING FROM COSTA RICA ACROSS JAMAICA AND E CUBA. STRONG
DIVERGENCE BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND RIDGE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
TSTMS BETWEEN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND 84W N OF 18N WITH MORE
ISOLATED ACTIVITY WITHIN 60 NM OFFSHORE OF NICARAGUA. SURFACE
TROUGH IS LOCATED UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH WITH A WEAK 1007 MB
JUST NW OF ROATAN... THOUGH NOT PRODUCING ANY SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER. FARTHER E...A MID/UPPER CUT-OFF LOW IS NEAR THE ABC
ISLANDS MOVING W 10-15 KT. CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THE LOW AND THE
RIDGE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE RATHER DRY STABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHILE SCATTERED TSTMS ARE POPPING UP E OF THE
LOW IN THE SE CARIBBEAN. THESE TSTMS ARE DUE TO MOISTURE FROM
THE ATLC NEAR A TROPICAL WAVE COMBINED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL
SHEAR/INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW. WET CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY OVER THE WEEKEND S OF 15N E OF THE ABC ISLANDS AS THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND THE TROPICAL WAVE BRING MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER.

ATLANTIC...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM ACROSS E CUBA THRU THE W ATLC
JUST E OF N CAROLINA WITH HIGH CLOUDS W OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND
OTHERWISE MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS... SAVE FOR A FEW TSTMS IN THE
NW BAHAMAS AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE FLORIDA E COAST. THE
CENTRAL ATLC HAS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH BETWEEN BERMUDA AND 35W N
OF 28N WHICH IS BRINGING A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA ALONG 31N41W
27N49W 26N59W STATIONARY NW TO 27N65W BEYOND 31N68W. WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM MOSTLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDINESS OTHERWISE N OF THE
FRONTS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR OVER THE ATLC E OF 75W FROM
18N-25N. OTHERWISE IN THE E ATLC...HIGH-OVER-LOW BLOCKING
PATTERN CONTINUES WITH A LOW NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS AND A HIGH
W OF PORTUGAL WITH MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE NOTED N OF 20N E
OF 35W. THIS UPPER PATTERN ALONG WITH THE COLD FRONT OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC HAS SLICED THE AZORES RIDGE IN TWO AND WEAKENED
IT... WITH A DISTANT 1024 MB CENTER ABOUT 300 NM E OF THE AZORES
AND SLACKENING TRADES E OF 40W IN THE AREA. DOWN IN THE DEEP
TROPICS E OF 55W....MID/UPPER RIDGING IS ALONG 11/12N WITH A
HIGH CENTER NEAR 11N46W AND NEAR GUINEA-BISSAU. ITCZ CONVECTION
IS RATHER ACTIVE OVER WARMER-THAN-AVERAGE WATERS PLUS UPPER
DIFFLUENCE S OF THE MID/UPPER RIDGE AXIS.

$$
BLAKE

[wxcrazytwo]

wow..Yeah I might say quite a report.

[dhweather]

YUCATAN CHANNEL... WHICH IS CONSIDERED UNLIKELY AS THE MODEL
APPEARS TO BE SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK.



Ah, so that's what a screwed up model suffers from - "convective feedback"

[x-y-no]

YUCATAN CHANNEL... WHICH IS CONSIDERED UNLIKELY AS THE MODEL
APPEARS TO BE SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK.



Ah, so that's what a screwed up model suffers from - "convective feedback"

Quick! Get that model some Pepto Bismol!

[HurryKane]

YUCATAN CHANNEL... WHICH IS CONSIDERED UNLIKELY AS THE MODEL
APPEARS TO BE SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK.



Ah, so that's what a screwed up model suffers from - "convective feedback"

I think that will be my new excuse to get out of housework, yardwork, or real work. "Sorry, it's the old convective feedback, y'know. Cough cough."

But back to the topic, that is quite the Discussion. It's going to take 2-3 readings to sink in.

[Cookiely]

YUCATAN CHANNEL... WHICH IS CONSIDERED UNLIKELY AS THE MODEL
APPEARS TO BE SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK.



Ah, so that's what a screwed up model suffers from - "convective feedback"

Is the gfs suffering a nervous breakdown. Its too early in the season for such shenanigans.

[canegrl04]

Is that the terminology now? Whenever a model is full of sh**,its "convective feedback"

[tailgater]

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-b ... =Animation
Some of the others or hinting at a little development to a much lesser degree, I don't see how but it's enough to keep a tired eye on.

[Aslkahuna]

Actually, convective feedback is an actual phenomenom and one that is a problem for the models since they can't cope with it.

Steve

[dhweather]

Actually, convective feedback is an actual phenomenom and one that is a problem for the models since they can't cope with it.

Steve

You've obviously drank from their fountain of kool-aid.


So what exactly is convective feedback?

[Cookiely]

Actually, convective feedback is an actual phenomenom and one that is a problem for the models since they can't cope with it.

Steve

Seriously, is it a problem with the computer or software. I'm ignorant so bear with me. What is convective feedback?