5:30 TWO=Broad Low Pressure Forms in NW Caribbean

[dhweather]

ABNT20 KNHC 032114
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT FRI JUN 3 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...INCLUDING DATA FROM A RECENTLY INSTALLED NOAA BUOY IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...SUGGEST THAT A BROAD AND DISORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED BETWEEN HONDURAS AND WESTERN CUBA. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS WELL REMOVED FROM THE LOW AND EXTENDS NORTHWARD FROM THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS CUBA...FLORIDA...AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER THIS AREA...PRIMARILY OVER WESTERN CUBA...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...BUT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

FORECASTER AVILA

[Brent]

I love it... go from no development to an LLC in a day.

Still don't think it develops though, but it's good to poke fun.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Darn I'm good. Lets see if something can come out of it.

[cycloneye]

The tropics are full of surprises many times and in the past it has been that way.Having said that this area is not in a favorable area at this time for tropical development however if it can detach from the upper trough then something can happen.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Upper level shear is down to 15 knots. With a slight 5 knot decrease over the last 6 hours. Its worth watcihng...

[dhweather]

I don't see it.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[HURAKAN]

Our first of the year, "HERE WE GO."

[Brent]

I don't see it.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Reminds me of Grace in 2003. Remember? It was a big long line of storms but nothing circular or remotely resembling anything.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Alison was also a long line of storms on the Eastern Side. But it id have a well defined LLC. Short lived system to. It was put at 60 mph.

[dhweather]

They call it a broad and disorganized area of low pressure,
it's that at best.

The ULL plowing west across the Carribean is a neat little feature.

[James]

Well, this is certainly interesting to say the least. Ah, the unpredictability of Hurricane Season. Just goes to prove you never know what's round the corner.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Remember to look at the curve of the convection. In we will have to see what happens this is a very long ways from a tropical cyclone.

[cycloneye]

The atmosphere is dynamic and dramatic shifts can take place.Expect to be surprised in the tropics.

[dhweather]

Here's a graph from Data Buoy 42056 in teh NW Carribean,
the new one that the TWO references:

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php? ... wdpr&uom=E

[vbhoutex]

A broad area of low pressure does not an LLC make!!!!! Two TOTALLY DIFFERENT things!!!!

[senorpepr]

:puts on shameless plug hat:

Of course, you can check out S2K's Atlantic Buoy's page for the latest information from the NDBC:

http://tropicalupdates.nhcwx.com/buoy.htm
http://tropicalupdates.nhcwx.com/atl.htm
http://tropicalupdates.nhcwx.com/


I understand there may be some issues with the Eastern Caribbean map while using MSIE, but there shouldn't be if using Firefox/Mozilla. I'll fix this later tonight, but please provide feedback!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Low levels of the Atmosphere Area of low pressure. Still disoreganized in it will maybe even get sheared apart.

[vbhoutex]

Low levels of the Atmosphere Area of low pressure. Still disoreganized in it will maybe even get sheared apart.

Matt would you please explain further what you are trying to say here?

If you are trying to tell me that low pressure is in the lower levels of the atmosphere I understand that quite well. There is no LLCC present that I can see. That is why they call it a BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I use LLC for a tropical area of low pressure at the lower levels of the Atmosphere(5,000 feet or below=850 millibar level) Remember tropical storm Bill of a few years while its tropical wave was still over the Yact. It transported the energy north into a curve ark. Which is what we see sort of north of Cuba.

The shear is going down. In I don't call 10 to 15 knot shear that unfavable. But its a wait in see.

[Brent]

The shear is going down. In I don't call 10 to 15 knot shear that unfavable. But its a wait in see.

I think it is too when there's a disorganized blob. For an already-developed system it wouldn't matter...